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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 138 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Shareholder letter

    by bull1863 May 22, 2014 11:04 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 23, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    RGRX will not turn down a major western country drug approval of TB 4 in dry eye because of pricing. Yes, it will have to be priced somewhat lower to make it attractive, but RGRX will still get some margin on it. An approval to sell, coming out of the blue, will INSTANTLY give TB 4 creedence that it IS a viable drug. We woudl soar in price. Then RGRX could raise money easier.

    Lastly, RGRX has a HUGE currency advantage. The British Pound is about 1.67. It is VERY strong against the dollar. For every 1 Pound they are able to buy 1.67 of product in US Dollar terms. That is a huge advantage for RGRX.

  • Reply to

    Sad fact for now

    by thebasiles777 May 23, 2014 10:31 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 23, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    drplano is correct…the market maker can short as much RGRX as he wants, whenever he wants. He is allowed tio by the SEC. A MM can short on downticks…a MM can short without ever having to borrow shares….a MM is exempt from reporting the short position to the SEC..as long as it is in the "normal course of daily market making activities". This is where the market makers cheat though….their short position (unreported) is NOT in the normal course of daily buy/sell/buy/sell market making..but what they have in RGRX is a very large LONG TERM POSITION trade short that they hide in the MM advantaged account. NITE won't do anything but what they always have done…short more when needed and always show offers. Keep a lid on any RGRX price action…..to keep a cap on their short position. the only way it will change is with major news that changes the whole markets perception of TB 4 as a failed POS penny stock drug. England woudl be a GREAT place to start. NITE has no idea what goes on in England.

  • Reply to

    JJ's Newsletter

    by sdhoolteach2000 May 25, 2014 10:03 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 25, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Don't bet on TB 4 going directly to a Phase 3 in eye Nk…even tho' the FDA gave it Orphan Status. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it would be a minor miracle if the FDA agrees to it. Because the only data that FDA has on Eye NK is from about an 8 patient "test"….not really a "trial". It was done by a physician at his office. There was no CRO or placebo….it wasn't a controlled "test". Usually the FDA would ask for a larger phase 2b trial Like they probably would in regular dry eye)….that is blinded and controlled, and done by a real CRO..not a single "Doc in the Office".

    There's no harm in trying though…who knows what the FDA will do. One thing for sure, RGRX will need Ora Inc by their side when they approach the FDA,

    I'm more interested in the ENGLAND situation. if the NHS comes back (hopefully this week) and sayd to the NICE to proceed with a final approval appraisal…..you could possible see TB 4 approved in dry eye, in a majpowestern country..LONG before any phs 2 or 3 is done in eye NK. Same with Lee's…..they are in no rush at all. it's been OVER two years.

  • Yup, Hillshire got a bear hug bid o f$5.6 billion. Meat processors are in demand. The bid values Hillshire at a bit over 10 times EBIDTA. It's hard to figure the exact EDIDTA of SEB's pork division..buty they state operating income is $150 million. EBITDA might be a tad higher. SEB also has more value in that they own their own feedlots..vertcally integrated. I would bet that SEB's pork divison coudl fetch perhaps $1.7 billion…it depends what the numbers look like for all of 2014 and I think they will be good. I'm sure that bankers have approached SEB if it is for sale….but since Bresky owns 76% of SEB..they don't have a prayer unless he wants to sell. If he sees such high prices on the 2 recent big pork deals, maybe he will down the road. And if he'd entertain an "offer he can't refuse"…the best thing he could do is use shareholders money right now to buy back a LOT of stock..which will soon increase (mtyguess) his ownership of SEB to closer to 84%. He doesn't have to spend a DIME personally, and he moves to 84% stake from 76%. Smart guy. There really are no similar processors left of size.

    I'm not tendering.

  • FINRA stats for today. 35,000 trade…20,500 was traded short. That's just about 60% of all volume.. And the bigger trades today were downtick trades, down about three cents. These were opening short positions.because it is statistically impossible to day trade buy/sell and cover a short, if you were 60% of volume.

    NITE just won't give in………and no doubt it makes them very grumpy…because there is someone out there who also has been "ticking up" RGRX before the close to keep his/her marks up….for quite a long time now. Whoever it is….I guess thanks…..but you can't stall the inevitable……..all or none.

  • Reply to

    60% volume short today

    by snogreen May 28, 2014 8:17 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 29, 2014 6:59 AM Flag

    I'm 95% sure there will nbot be any press, if the NHS comes back and says for NICE to proceed with final appraisal for TB 4 approval. There's no history of any UK press monitoring NHS releases for stories……and Finkel-Tinkel didn't even bother to go to a critcal informational meeting on TB 4 on January 9….and if TB 4 is rejected by the NHS, then the finger points back to Finkel Dope as making yet ANOTHER huge mistake.

    RGRX won't make a PR release, because they have had NOTHING to do with England _ even tho' it could transform RGRX. Finkel Tinkel is probably angry he has to do some work to give NICE pricing, before approval. But it might also be a good move for RGRX to stay SILENT…..Because? the NICE is a transparent and open process. They invite patients, docs, researchers, makers, and COMPETITORS to give opinions & input. It might NOT be a good idea to wake a sleeping giant like Allergan. They own RESTASIS and they don't want TB 4 as a competitor. If AGN has it thrown in their face a potential TB 4 approval, they might make a stink to NICE that the data for approval is only a minimal phase 2, that statistically failed in the "primary" (but not other) endpoints. AGN could get nasty, down and dirty - to defend Restasis market in UK. So my hunch is Finkel stays silent. But he is still a PITIFUL CEO.

  • Wow, Tyson Foods just upped bid $6.1 billion for Hillshire Farms (meats)….this is the 3rd bid for it. There aren't many large meat processors left of any size, so if these players don't pay up, they risk missing it. On an EBITDA basis, from what I can tell…a similar valuation bid of Tyson for Hillshire, coudl translate into valuing SEB's vertically oriented Pork company at close to $2 billion…and there are several parties who missed the boat on Hillshire who obviously want a big processor for scale and efficiencies on their product. It woudl not surprise me if the losing companies and their bankers will be knocking on Bresky's door….and if they's pay upwards of $2 billion……I think Bresky woudl be silly not to think of taking the money. These guys are paying like, 13 times EBITDA. there's a time to hold, and a time to sell. I think Bresky will buyback on the tender about 6% of the shares..but it will cost around 2850 to 2900 to do it. He simply uses sharteholder cash to do it…..he gets a free ride to close to 83% ownership from his curent 76%. And Fildelity owns about 6% now too. The time to sell SEB pork divison is while a "bubble" is at hand and companies will "pay stupid". Interesting times. If Bresky could get $2 billion cash for Pork division, SEB is cheap at $2700.

  • SEB owns a 50% non controlling interest in Butterball. Butterball does pork as well as turkey and other packaged things. Butterball is controlled a a family called Maxwell. It's very possible that bankers coudl knock on their door looking to buy Butteball. It's all about scale and distribution. Butterball isn't as profitable……..but maybe it could be more so with integration into a far larger company. Wouldn't that be something if the MAxwell family sells Butterball (and takes SEB's 50% stake)…and Bresky sold SEB pork division. There's a time to sell…and the prices are crazy right now.

  • Reply to

    Tyson bids $6.1 billion for Hillshire!

    by snogreen May 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 29, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Boy, if SEB ever sold Pork division and someone like Pilgrims pride chicken bought Butterball….the value of those 2 divisions at the deal prices we're see woudl equal (or MORE) the whole market cap of SEB now..and all rest is FREE. Look this way…they are offering about 12 times EBITDA for Hillshire. In Q1, SEB has pork operating earnings (pre taxes etc) of $60 million. if you just use that $60 for next three quarters, that is $240 million gross. A 10 times EBITDA is $2.4 billion. A 12 times EBITDA is $2.88 billion. So a 12 times EBITDA is almost the whole value right now of SEB! Even more so since SEB sits on so much cash. If ever get a 12 times EBITDA…..everything else in SEB is free!, including Butterball. Bresky woudl be nuts not to take it, if ever offered.

  • Reply to

    Could Butterball be sold?

    by snogreen May 29, 2014 9:43 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 29, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Pilgrims Pride chicken was looking to take Hillshire…but Tyson blew them out of the bid. Pikgrims Pride chicken would get a very interesting fit with Butterball..creat a Turkey and Chicken company. there would be some great efficiencies and economies of scale and distribution.which could make Butterball more profiatble in future.

    Butterball is controlled by a Maxwell family. SEB owns a 50% non controlling stake. If someone offered MAxwell family similar prices EBIDTA price as Hillshire……the family would be nuts not to take it.. Families, estates and taxes..at some point it's best to sell out. Let's hope the bankers for Pilgrims Pride chicken know of Butterball owners.

  • Great.I see WTM mgmt is hosting an "investor conference" in June in NYC. They'll spout their usual line that they "think like owners"……..and they will pat themselves on the back - heartily - that book value grew. And then they pad themselves royally with money because they grew book value. But if they really think like owners?..WHERE are the shareholders yachts - or in WTM mgmt's case, the free use of WTM's private jet for personal uses…….because while book value goes up..mgmt pays themselves on book value increase…..but WHAT GOOD does it do the owners and shareholders….if mgmt allows the price of WTM to trade $65 BELOW BOOK VALUE. See??? Riiged game. Shareholders suffer with a stagnant stock that trades $65 to $70 BELOW book value…..while mgmt collects all the money and perks based only on book value increase. They win, we lose. So mgmt DOES NOT THINK LIKE OWNERS.

    Some large shareholder should propose that mgmt compensation is NO LONGER based upon increasing book value…….but INCREASING SHARE PRICE that the owners of the company have. We don't get free private jet use. WHY hasn't WTM bought back stock at about $70 BELOW LIQUIDATION VALUE?? i'm not selling, but i'm not pleased.

  • My figures are wrong in earlier post. If yahoo allows, here's a copy paste from the Tyson release..Tyson states they are offering 13.4 times trailing EBITDA:

    "At a total value of $6.8 billion, the Tyson proposal represents a multiple of 13.4x Hillshire's trailing LTM adjusted EBITDA."

    Now to compare that to SEB's pork division? the most up to date operating income (close to EBITDA) was $60 million for Q1 2014. Just assume it stays at $60 million next 3 quarters (but probably will be higher)(…….that equals $240 million EBITDA for SEB's pork company. If Tyson says there is good value in Hillshire meats at 13.4 times EBITDA….then 13.4 times SEB's pork divison $240 million…. is a similar value of $3.21 billion!!!! See that? At 13.4 same value as offered for Hillshire….that means SEB's pork company is worth ALL of the current market cap of SEB…..but all the other divisons are FREE.like Butterball…..MArine containers..power……agriculture…….milling operations….and about $500 million net of debt free cash on hand.

    All those other divisions coudl be worth maybe $1 billion and SEB has $500 million cash net of debt (ballpark)…you coudl see SEB worth over $4.7 billion..versus current mkt cap about $3.2 billion. No wonder Bresky is buying back stock….at $2,700 level……if SEB is valued at the current takeover deal prices, you'd see SEB at $4,700 a share. All they have to do is sell Turkey and Pork division for similar of what Tyson and Pinnacle are willing to pay for Hillshire right now. if that ever happened, you'd see SEB worth $4,700 a share….that's pre cap gains taxes though, I guess…….even with cap gains taxes……SEB at 2,700 can have a case made that it is very cheap……IF Bresky would consider selling the pork division.

  • Reply to

    Nice Open

    by fl_geezer May 29, 2014 2:29 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 29, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    no one got a bargain except the MM who had the bid. Fun thing will be to see todays short stats from FINRA. was that small trade at 18.1 cents an OPENING short trade? Just like the similar 20,500 sharted same place yesterday??

    The NHS is slow..

  • What a MM scam. 79,000 shares trade basically….and of that 57,000 were shorted. That works out to 72% of all volume short. They will not let RGRX go up. they believe it is a POS. The MM's are clearly violating SEC rules,…because they are only allowed to short in the "oridinary course of making a market daily"…..to use the market maker SEC exemptions. It is clear that the MM's are shorting RGRX as a VERY large POSITION trade. There's no way you can trade on a day 72% of ALL volume short, and claim you are doing so in "ordinary" course of daily buy/sell/buy /sell…. the MM has no intention of buying..ONLy selling and selling short.……to defend what they are already short in what I bet is a surprisingy large position trade.

    For years now, our Finkel Dope should have been contacting the SEC. All the statistics are saved on FINRA for years back. The MM's in RGRX have no intention of making what the SEC thinks is an ordinary bid/ask "market"…….NITE and others only have a one way market making activity….sell, short, sell, short…and sell short. That is abuse of market maker privilege.because they will not borrow shares.so for all intents they are naked short…and they will not report their position trade short to the SEC.

    Is there a good securities lawyer in the house here?

  • It's too bad that the Bresky family owns 76% of SEB……..and it's also too bad that Bresky is using shareholder money to buy back a lot of stock in the Dutch tender…..and he won't tende his. So he uses shareholder money to freely increase his stake to perhaps 83% of all SEB shares. But the sad "rub" is that we have clearly seen that MULTIPLE companies are VERY anxious to PAY BIG for meat and poultry companies of size. What does SEB have? They have Butterball turkey and their large pork division. Simply using the figure from Tyson of what they are willing to pay for Hillshire meats…which is 13.4 times EBITDA…….SEB's pork division is on track to have $240 million (or MORE) in EBITDA…and there are buyers ALL OVER willing to pay that…..well???? 13.4 times SEB's 2014 EBITDA works out to valuing ONLY, ONLY… the pork division at $3.2 BILLION……but right now of SEB is valiued at $3.2 billion. Anyone with half a brain would LEAP at selling pork division at 13.4 EBITDA…and same goes for Butterball turkey. SELL into the bubble and frenzy. These are NOT easy companies to run. They blow hot and cold….depending on a lot of factors.

    Considering the action in Hillshire…..and SEB having a huge pork division and Butterball turkey too……..if the Bresky family did not have such "uber" control…..SEB would easily be over $3,500 a share. If Butterball and SEB's pork divison were sold - at around 13.4 EBITDA…….then SEB would be around $4,700 a share (minus some cap gains taxes).

    Welcome to the Bresky discount. $2,700 is really cheap.considering what goes on with Hillshire. but will Bresky UNLOCK IT????? or just keep SEB as a family play toy?? I hiope Bresky isn't just holding SEB so he can park his childern into a cushy job. After all..he was.

  • This WTM selling at a $65 discount to liquidation value is not "thinking like an owner". I have a new proposal. I compare WTNm to Alleghany (Y). Y is a $421 stock. It's book value is $431. It trades at a $10 discount to book. Y has large reinsurance business and investments, exacty like WTM. So WTM cannot say that 'All reinsurers trade at big discount to book". Not true. Furthermore, of WTM's maybe $3.5 billion market cap, just under $1.5 billion of that is purely the major stock holding they have in OB and SYA. OB is worth about $1.1 billion and SYA stake about $320 million. And WTM sits on $1 billion of free capital. So WHY are we $65 BELOW book value?? BUY BACK STOCK.

    Since WTM mgmt is out for themselves, by compensating themselves on "increased book value"…I propose a CHANGE. Compensate WTM mgmt with all perks & salary & bonuses calculated in the increase in book value. BUT THEN, adjust that payout to what SHAREHOLDERS GET…a $65 discount to book. We lose, they win. I propose that after the get compensation and bonuses on increaed book, that for EVERY $10 discount to book WTM trades at , their excess/bonus compensation is REDUCED by 5%. So if WTM allow it's stock to trade $60 below book, then for every $10 discount, they lose 5% of their excess bonus compensation. In this case, a $65 discount to book…is six $10 increments. You lose 5% for each $10 increment. So on bonus day, if WTM is $65 BELOW book value, your bonus is reduced by 30% - because while book increased, shareholder owners get NOTHING but discounts. If WTM mgmt sees their bonuses SLASHED by 30% because of this huge discount, maybe then they will think like shareholders, and not greedy managers. I wish John Byrne was still alive. MAybe that is why Warren Buffet sold all his WTM. Mgmt greed.

  • Reply to

    The "Bresky" SEB huge discount

    by snogreen May 29, 2014 9:21 PM
    snogreen snogreen May 30, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    You can't not think that Bresky himself saw the Tyson news bidding 13.4 times EBIDTA for Hillshire. Bresky knows pork divison is on track for $240 million (or more) Operating income (close to EBIDTA) for 2014. At 13.4 times that for Hillshire valuation, you get Pork divison ONLY….worth what ALL SEB trades at..3.2 billion $. Bresy has to have had calls. He is the only Pork producer left of any size. And he has feedlots which are unique.vertcally integrated. But Bresky has to NOT answer the phone or call a banker until the tender is over. because if he fields call from bankers offering anywhere close to 13 times pork EBIDTA..close to $3 billion…then he has inside knowldge of that and has to disclose because it severely effects the SEC filing for the dutch tender. If Bresky takes no calls.he can continue with the tender. He has nothing news wise to disclose to the SEC about the tender. He has had no discussion with anyone. BUT AFTER THE TENDER ?? I bet there are FIVE bankers and companies calling him,,,,""will you sell teh pork division""? I hope at 13 times EBIDTA….or about $3 billion….which is the WHOLE value of ALL SEB..he says "yes". You'd see SEB at $4,000 a ahare.

  • Reply to

    A shareholder friendly proposal for WTM

    by snogreen May 30, 2014 10:17 AM
    snogreen snogreen May 30, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    Here's the other shareholder friendly thing that needs to be taken away..well, maybe we consider keeping it is the close the huge discount to book.say, more like Alleghany ..which is very similar to WTM, but trades at LESS that a $10 discount to book (it is a $423 stock).

    But this has to go…From the proxy:

    '"We allow our Named Executive Officers to use our corporate aircraft from time to time for personal reasons. "

    How about this? when WTM stock trades at a $10 or less dicount to book, you can use the jet…..and you get rid if Propspector Funds (Gillespie). I think they manage about $450 million of OUR SHAREHOLDERS money..and for the last FIVE years he never came close..by a country mile…. to matching the % return of the S&P 500 Index..yet we pay him MILLIONS in fees over that time? Pitiful.

    Same is pitiful perfomance by Manning Rountree……not only does he get massive bonuses, he also gets free use of the corporate jet……and yet he as in house investment manager, ALSO failed to match the S&P 500 for the last handful of years. HEY! Pay me! I'll match the S&P 500 in a heartbeat. I'll just buy the index. WTM would have tens of millions more cash if they had simply fired these guys and bought index funds. Foregt how much we'd save in $$$$ management fees.

    WTM is an old buddies club. Carl Icahn or David Einhorn woudl have a field day with these guys. It is what we need, an big activist investor to run a proxy fight and get some REAL independent Board members.Gee, maybe we'd trade closer to book value. Imagine that.

    John Byrne would have listened to all this. Ray Barrette is out for himself.

  • Reply to

    Cyclosporin as a STA

    by thebasiles777 Jun 2, 2014 8:34 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jun 2, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    just have to wait for all info. They just said this one was "part" of batch 34. True. They haven't released batch 34 all yet. if you look at batch 33, the NHS gives explanation of why it said yes or no. Look for batch 34 report somehow..

  • Bresky's tender to pay upt to 2950 seems a bit ify now. With SEB around 2850…I don't think he'll get the larger amount he was hoping for in tendered shares. It's Tyson's bid for Hillshire. I postd on that. well, today the market woke up..or someone with $$ read my post. If Tyson is willing to pay 13.4 times EBITDA for Hillshire 9about 6.87 billion total)…..then the EBIDTA estimated for 2014 for SEB's pork division (similar to Hillshire) is about $240 million, and 13 times that $240 million is $3.1 billion. ALL of SEB now is at a #3.3 billion value. But SEB's 50% stake in butterball Turkey just ZOOMED up in value too. That coudl be worth $750 million too. Then all the other divisiosn of SEB. not big money makers….but the container division could not ever be replicated easily. They have about 90 acres in the Port of Miami alone. You can't get 90 acres of waterside Port land in Miami, or any other port city they already have. Someday, Cuba will open up and dump Communists. when that happens, Cuba will have to be rebuilt…and much it it will come by SEB containers from Miami.

OB
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