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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 228 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
  • snogreen snogreen Mar 21, 2015 6:12 AM Flag

    As I said in my post. LAst year, there were TWO huge deals for Smithfield (2013) and Hillshire. Price paid was 15-17 times EBIDTA. At time, SEB was trading 6-7 times EBIDTA. Trades 10 x EBIDTA now. Still room. SEB is 2nd largest pork co. in USA and owns 55% Butterball turkey. As meat biz consolidates, there are no others of size & scale in USA left, except SEB. SEB unique in that it also nas NO LONG TERM DEBT and $525 million cash on hand. It owns a large shipping company, a large jalepeno pepper compnay in Honduras, a 70,000 acre sugar and biofuel proprrty Argentina, an electric generating co. in Dominican Republic (a cash cow)...and a $1 billion trading company and misc assets in Africa (kind of risky) I thought JBS Brazil was taking SEB. 10 days ago JBS Brazil said no more M&A for them in 2015 That only leaves one I can think is logical, Warren Buffet. SEB is similar to BRK...only 1.1 million shares outstanding SEB and Bresky owns 77.5%. A 25 year chart overlay of SEB to BRK shows SEB BEATING Berkshire! SEB is Buffets kind of company. SOMEONE has been buying shares HARD since early October. I think they do so before they takeover SEB. It may be Buffet, but then again I am very wrong that I've posted before I thought it was JBS Brazil. My low buy $2,500. it is VERY nice...... to be SO wrong (on JBS). I hold my conviction. I play for a deal, but part of me is crazy not to sell half for a LARGE gain now.

  • snogreen by snogreen Mar 20, 2015 4:33 PM Flag

    Wow. Up $345 for teh day.....most of that was on a close print of 221 shares UP ALMOST 200 points from the print at 3:59:59

    SEB is now well overpriced on a regular earnings basis.....but i've not been playing for that. It's a dal. SEB is still undervalued on a takeover.....especially when you saw Smithfild and Hillsshire sell out at 15 to 17 times EBIDTA.....I think SEB can do between $440 million and $520 million EBIDTA in 2015.. Do teh match of 14 or 15 times EBIDTA on $500 million. SEB has no long term debt and sits on $525 million CASH!

    I was very wrong in all my previous posts that I thought it woudl be either JBS Brazil of PPC buting SEB., but JBS said a week ago they wwill not be doing anymore M&A for 2015. I sold some SEB on that. Ugh. Tyson can't take SEB...JBS is not....SEB doesn't fit great with Hormel. And the US dollar is way to strong for a foreign buyer to come in. And whoever does buy SEB, they have to pay what Mr. Bresky says.cuz' he owns 77% of SEB. Fildelity owns about 6%. SEB is basically a private equity fund publically traded.

    My only other giuess now who woud buy SEB, is Warren Buffet. he'd like Pork, Butterball turkey and Seaboard Marine is a BIG sleeper asset he'd like. When Cuba opens up, it will have to be built from scratch almost. SEB Marine is HUGE in Miami port......90 miles to Havana. It will be SEB container ships that bring what is needed to rebuild ALL of cuba. Classic Buffet play. And what is more Buffet & America than BUTTERBALL TURKEY! Put Warrens face on it and rebrand "Buffet's Butterball".

  • snogreen by snogreen Mar 19, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    My God......I must see almost two dozen posts labeled "topic Hidden" by donkey. he has taken over the board with nonsense. But I had this old post on bashes, which is what he is and how he gets PAID. If al lof us have him on ignore and never reply, he get's no money:

    "IGNORE THEM FOLKS...how bashers are paid: When you REPLY to bashers you give them an opportunity to earn 5-7 bucks. The service agreement they enter into with their employer states their messages will be monitored for content, profanity, lies, etc. but Money Manager's and the like don't have the time to check all their bashers messages. Only occasional spot checks are done. Those who manage the basher will generally read the headlines to see if a basher is replying to other posters by name. That tells them the basher isn't just "posting blindly" or repeating the same message over and over (rubber soul) since they won't pay for those. A basher will attempt to milk three to five replies per post at one to two dollars each. This way the basher spreads negative influence to as many stockholders as possible. A basher will create this discussion thread because it takes less time reading more messages than is necessary. This ultimately allows the basher more time to post and make money. In general, NEVER ENGAGE A BASHER. Make them read all the posts and think up ways to enter the discussion.

    NEVER ENGAGE A STOCK BASHER; if you do so then YOU BECOME THE BASHER'S AID!

  • Well, here's a first. TB 4 pre clinical work done in Moscow...TB 4 in skin related:

    "Abstract
    The therapeutic efficiency of recombinant thymosin β4 (rTβ4) synthesized by us was studied in vivo on spontaneous CBRB mouse model that is adequate to human chronic dermatitis. Three applications of the drug during a week significantly alleviated symptoms of the disease in female mice, and in complex with subsequent antibacterial and antifungal therapy led to a pronounced and lasting (2 months) therapeutic effect. The results attest to a possibility of using rTβ4 in combination with the known treatment protocols for chronic inflammatory diseases of the skin."

  • Just all here...put donker on ignore. I gather he is posting Patent stuff?? You'll be fine. He's never been what he says. And all this patent #$%$ he posts. I'll summarize the facts.

    The hoped for Eye NK phase 3 is designated as an Orphan Staus indication by the FDA. This means the FDA grants incentives for companies to bring such Orphan drugs out. One thing the FDA grants is that if your Orphan drusg is ever approved, you get 7 YEARS of automatic exclusivity on it's sale.from date of approval.regardless if you have an issued patent or not. Obviuosly RGRX would at some point file for a full PAtent in the eye NK area. HERE IS WHY..

    As to Dry eye. the fact is the FDA changed a while ago how patents work in their filing. The BIGGEST change, that benefits RGRX, is that the USPO grants priority status to the person or company, that is FIRST TO FILE. what this means is that RGRX is the FIRST TO FILE in so many indications for TB 4. But the problem is that RGRX does indeed have a really hard time with the USPO rejecting the applications. Sometimes after many appeals, they win. Sometimes not. The DRY EYE is such a case. RGRX has been at it for many years. USPO keeps rejecting. RGRX on Jan 6, 2015 filed a major brief appeal, and my guess is if that is rejected RGRX lawyers will do it again. There are rights of appeal, but they are getting late. the KEY is that it is VERY clear to the USPO that RGRX is first in line. It is not great to do a dry eye trial, not owning the IP. On the other hand, if you do the trial and your are first in line still - others cannot step over you. You just have to battle it out at USPO. It is a pain, and some risk, but it is not "game over" (does donker say this???) if dry eye patent is still being fought. I think the USPO might even give up and grant it is they see it worked in trial.

  • Reply to

    quickest way to revenue

    by thebasiles777 Mar 18, 2015 8:31 AM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 18, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Eye NK is the one to pray for (and Lee's). But I don't think you see the share price go up a lot until the news come that the trial is ready to go an patients being signed up. THEN the gamblers junmp on. But I think that is a ways off. Firstt, I asume Ora Inc will do it? Use the best CRO. So Ora will have to help with the trial design and contact their docs where the NK pts are. Second, after Ora lines that up and trial protocol is firm, they have to send it to FDA for review. It is a Phase 3 and will get some scrutiny, even though the FDA said they can proceed...they need all the trial details. So between Ora, Korea and the FDA.....the timeline to actually start the trial, is probably off into 3rd Q, and most likely 4th Q. everything takes too long.

    As to EB? I think that is a dead target. The trial was messed up badly. There is no cure for EB. Then explain how a water based placebo gel cured EB just as much as TB 4 did. Docs know water based gel placebo won't do anything. So why did it? EB is also dead because there literally are NO PATIENTS for trials. RGRX took almost SEVEN YEARS to find barely 30 patients. The barriers to do a quick trial and find EB pts are just too hard.

  • Reply to

    Future Value of RGRX

    by hollisddd Mar 16, 2015 2:59 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 16, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    what comes first, chicken or the egg? Who cares of price predictions. To get a price prediction, you need something to do it. Only thing that will move price substantially up, or down (well not too far down left to go)......is drug news..trial news. I have no idea where it goes in 2 weeks, a momnth oer 6 months. I just want a trial to start ASAP...and I want it to have statistical efficacy......then RGRX no longer will be a penny stock. Need trial win first.

  • Reply to

    JBS

    by aburges49 Mar 13, 2015 1:54 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 15, 2015 7:16 AM Flag

    Yeah, I thought it was an odd thing by JBS.They have always said that growth by buying others was in their DNA, and if a price is right,and the company fits.... they will but. JBS claims that they want to deleverage. But they really aren't that leveraged. Theyt hit debt to EBIDTA of well over 3.....in a few short quarters they are down to 2.1. JBS has about $5 billion of cash and about $13.8 billion debt.........and the earnings of JBS have soared. I don't think that the bondholders have to worry about their coupons, if JBS sits on $5 billion.

    JBS, as I've said, just used PPC as a bank. JBS bought an Australian forn for $1.25 billion in November. And WHAT did JBS suck out of PPC? $1.2 billion. And it was NO COINCIDENCE that the deal closed almost at same time as special dividend paid.

    I do NOT think PPC will pay a regular quarterly dividend. I am wondering differently. JBS has $$ to do deals, if they want. they said no "acquisitions". I think it makes 100% financial sense that if the right time appears, that JBS buys the 25% of PPC they DON'T own! That is not really an "acquisition", cuz they already control PPC. Chicken may come down, and the shorts might whack PPC even lower. I give it decent odds that JBS may come in and buy PPC stock, if shorts whack into low $20's. PPC can buy. They have 3 business days to file w/ SEC after they do. They coudl buy millions in those 3 days and it would play well on an filing like that...JBS is buying PPC shares. This is what JBS should do now.

  • Reply to

    RGRX never disclosed US eye patent

    by snogreen Mar 14, 2015 4:54 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 14, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    It's called...."donker"

  • How typical for Finkel Tinkel..pick and choose what he tells investors. On Feb 26, 2013 RGRX was awarded a US Patent (no# 8,383,576) for TB 4 to treat Glaucoma and elevated intraocular pressure. RGRX never disclosed this to investors. I just checkd their website....there were several PR's about patents being granted in USA, Canada and China in 2013.........as a matter of fact, RGRX did a full PR release that the U.S. Patent Office granted RGRX it's SECOND US Patent in heart disease - ON MARCH 8, 2013..... However, a mere TEN DAYS EARLIER (February 26, 2013)..RGRX also received notice from US Patent Ofice that they got a US Patent for TB 4 in eyes relating glaucoma & intraocular pressure. RGRX refused to disclose this, but 10 days later disclosed the new US heart patent.

    Is it any wonder seasoned bio investors have steered clear of RGRX and Finkelstein? If TB 4 ever finally does pass a trial ... it will be a miracle........this company is cursed with mis steps and limiting information - as they see fit to.

  • This is weird. I don't recall seeing this news. On June 19, 2006 RGRX filed #$%$ Patent application for TB 4 in eye area. It was specificaly for elevated intraocular pressure....i.e. Glaucoma. Dr. Sosne is listed on the patent application. SEVEN YEARS LATER....on Feb 26, 2013...the USPO granted a US Patent to RGRX. if you wish to view this patent..it's issue number is 8,383,576.

    Unfortunately, the patent does not mention dry eye...but RGRX does indeed have a US Patent for TB 4 in eyes to treat intraocular pressure and Glaucoma.. but I do not recall any pre clinical work done on glaucoma.

  • Reply to

    Valuation

    by fflasv Mar 13, 2015 8:30 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 13, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    You coudl be low on the Restasis angle.. Fact is that Restasis has not so great side effects, and many, many dry eye patients cannot use it. TB 4 has no side effects, so if it works it is a big leap over Restates. Second. Restasis does nothing to heal the cornea. All Restasis does is aid the eye in creating more tears.so Restasis only get's at a symptom and get;'s it with side effects that many cannot tolerate. On the other hand? RGRX knows TB 4 is safe and side effect free (unlike Restasist). And TB 4 is also going after actual healing of the ocular surface..so it hopes to actual treat the disease/eye wound.whereas all restasis does is aid more tear generation..

    If TB 4 works ever, it's bigger than Restates...over time. But we need a trial to show that. Trials will come......it's just wait and wait and wait and wait. Google RESTASIS and side effects and issues.

  • Reply to

    Trading

    by bocamp1 Mar 11, 2015 5:11 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 12, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    picking on anyone with the attitude of "my cost basis is better than yours"....is childish. What does it matter? What matters is if TB 4 ever works in a trial. Whether your own basis is 15 cents or $1.50..you will still make money. I think you should write Sigma Tau and tell them they are stupid too....because their "basis" is a lot higher than where we are now.

  • Hey Finkel, you should contact a fellow named Bill Maris at Google Ventures. It is the VC arm of Google. Google just pumped $425 million to him and his mission is to fine REGENERATIVE drugs & therapies..to extend life. get it? "Regenerx"???? get it? he has $425 million to invest? get it? RGRX is 35 cents??

    here is the headline from Bloomberg. Copys and paste to (Google) of course and read the full article. GOOG wants to be BIG in regenerative therapies and drugs, and they have more money than God, but no drugs.:

    "Google Ventures and the Search for Immortality

    Bill Maris has $425 million to invest this year, and the freedom to invest it however he wants. He's looking for companies that will slow aging, reverse disease, and extend life."

  • Well, that spike brought back the shorty MM's. A number of MM's showed up yesterday to come and play. Wasn't just NITE. It's classic MM trader thinking....to short big spikes on spec bios, and wait it down. The only thing DIFFERENT this time is that before, like last TWO years, RGRX was all but broke. So NITE was comfortable to short and press RGRX down, for the INEVITABLE tax puke & loss sellers.....at one point to 4 cents. NITE owned and controlled RGRX, for all intents. But TODAY..RGRX is not all but broke. It still has no money to speak of, but the three trials (China, Korea and USA( appear to be funded. So now it's a waiting game for trials start & results, and NOT a "going broke" short like NITE previously played. Going broke trade is now busted. Unless every single upcoming trail flops. So now RGRX will get a different kind of short, and probably a few more MM's playing. they play volatility. They play shorting the spike psychology...dumb money.chaing headlines..in tiny, underfunded , speculative bniotechs...that have ages and ages to wait for news. So unlike other years with NITE shorting RGRX hard, and we hated them.......from here on we should THANK the new MM shorts, because they will provide the liquidity in case a large player wants to get on board for the gamble. Without the MM's willingly shorting 312,000.....a possible new player can't buy size.. So in a sense, large shorts is a GOOD thing..as we wait and wait for a trial start.

  • Reply to

    reading H. Ford patent

    by snogreen Mar 9, 2015 2:42 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 10, 2015 6:05 AM Flag

    What the heck? you (school) post:



    First, fact that you ask donk is nuts. Put him on ignore,

    Second, No you cannot make any inference the paten is approved. Wake up. The examiner was not GIVEN the appeal until feb 20. The examiner has been screwing with RGRX for OVER FOUR YEARS..FOUR YEARS. GET IT? So why on earth do you keep posting is is either GRANTED, or will be "any day". It is probably MONTHS away from his response.

    THIRD? The USPO changed things a couple years ago. The person FIRST TO FILE still has rights, even with a rejection. So even if RGRX get's "non final rejections" NO ONE can step over RGRX and file a better TB 4 dry eye. RGRX has it locked in place, a marker. So RGRX will just keep filing and appealing to wear USPO down. But at some point, it is critical they get it. Otherwwise it's scary to do a trial with no final IP issued.

  • Reply to

    reading H. Ford patent

    by snogreen Mar 9, 2015 2:42 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 9, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    I am not 100% sure.....espanet is hard to figure. But HF applied this patent in July 2014, and it looks to me like the patent was granted Sept 10, 2014. But I'm not sure. EP means european patent. they give a "patent of invention" number.

    F 2014012532 W (Patent of invention)
    Event date : 2014/09/10
    Event code : 121
    Code Expl.: EP: THE EPO HAS BEEN INFORMED BY WIPO THAT EP WAS DESIGNATED IN THIS APPLICATION
    CC OF CORRESP. PAT. : EP
    CORRESP. PATENT D. : 14740921

  • I'm reading the new Henry ford patent appliction now. Long. Lot's on TB 4:

    "[0054] In our work, we evaluated whether thymosin beta 4 ("Τβ4") promotes differentiation of oligoprogenitor cells to oligodendrocytes in animal models of neurological injury. We discovered unexpectedly that Τβ4 increased expression of microRNA-146a and suppressed expression of proinflammatory cytokines of the Tolllike receptor ("TLR") signaling pathway, and that Τβ4 suppresses the TLR proinflammatory pathway by upregulating miR146a, with implication for the promotion of oligodendro genesis for clinical purposes.

    [0055] Tissue inflammation results from neurological injury and regulation of the inflammatory response is vital for neurological recovery. The innate immune response system which includes the Toll-like receptor ("TLR") proinflammatory signaling pathway regulates tissue injury. We evaluated whether that Τβ4 regulates the TLR proinflammatory signaling pathway. Since oligodendrogenesis plays an important role in neurological recovery, we employed an in vitro primary rat embryonic cell model of oligodendrocyte progenitor cells ("OPCs") and a mouse N20.1 OPC cell line to measure the effects of Τβ4 on the TLR pathway. In brief summary, we grew cells in the presence of Τβ4 ranging from 25 to 100 ng/ml of (RegeneRx Biopharmaceuticals Inc., Rockville, MD) for 4 days. Quantitative real-time ("Qrt:) PCR and Western blot data demonstrated that Τβ4 treatment increased expression of microRNA-146a (also "miR-146a"), a negative regulator of the TLR signaling pathway, in these two cell models. Western blot analysis showed that Τβ4 treatment suppressed expression of IL-1 receptor associated kinase 1 ("IRAKI") and TNF receptor-associated factor 6 ("TRAF6"), two proinflammatory cytokines of the TLR signaling pathway. Transfection of miR-146a into both primary rat embryonic OPCs and mouse N20.1 OPCs treated with Τβ4 demonstrated an amplification of myelin basic protein ("MBP") expression and differe

  • Hey, I just found another patent that has been filed ny Dr. Chopp and Henry Ford. In neuro & TB 4. But KEY is that it is only published so far in Europe. It was filed there in July 2014, and I am sure here too. but it is NOT published yet as filed, in US. RGRX got the neuro patent already. This one extends it with other compounds. See if Yahoo let's me past:

    WO2014113822 (A1) ― 2014-07-24

    “METHODS, SYSTEMS, AND COMPOSITIONS RELATING TO MIRNA-146A “

    Some embodiments comprise methods, systems, and compositions to promote, improve and/or increase neuronal differentiation, oligodendrocyte differentiation, or neurological outcome or function in a patient in need thereof. Some embodiments also comprise the administration a composition comprising a pharmaceutically effective amount of one or more of a group comprising microRNA-146a, a promoter of microRNA-146a expression, a microRNA-146a mimic, thymosin beta 4, and a phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor to treat neurological conditions, disease, or injury in mammals, including in human beings."

  • Reply to

    Asian Buying

    by bocamp1 Mar 9, 2015 1:26 PM
    snogreen snogreen Mar 9, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Definitely buying, nice volume...not retail for the most part I bet.....but I don't think Asian. It's dead of night over there. I angle more towards a US based person/entity. Probably who has been aware of RGRX for a while, but didn't really step in. Have to say some positive things lined up....and the surprise was G Tree getting that money for free.....and then doing a convert financing. So now this RGRX lurker, sees that indeed..a Phase 3 just may be coming later this year....the FDA has already approved doing it....and it apperas that it can be funded by G Tree......and it appears that Ora Inc will do it.....which is the gold standard for CRO's.

    I've said befopre my day dream is Randal Kirk getting on board. he absolutely knows Thymosins. We know he knows TA-1..he made money on it a long time ago. He knows Goldstein basically invented TA-1.so I would think he knows Goldstein is now with TB 4. Just a day dream. Finkel is crazy not to send him packages of info.

OB
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