Crunching numbers is just "ballpark". All boils down to the TRIALS. Home run f they work, deep doo-doo if they don't. A lot also rides on the P Values.. the lower the better....like P 0.002 seen before. If we get an extremely low P Value, with a very short 30 day dose, heal the eye and do so with no side effects? It changes ALL of dry eye. 30-40% of dry eye pts CANNOT take Restaisis, side effects.... but it is still a $1 billion drug. Trial results in LIFTEGRAST hosted Shires shares by $3 BILLION. Liftegrast is LONG dose with some small side effects.
As to rights for eyes? RGRX gave G Tree these: " ...it will be exclusive in Korea,Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Cambodia, East Timor, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma),Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan, and semi-exclusive in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.." Some countries RGRX get;'s a cut (semi exclusive), like India. RGRX STILL OWNS eye rights in Canada, Mexico, South America, Africa ALL OF EUROPE. IF trial works, these are worth $$$$. Also? Right now ALL of the heart and neuro apps are WORTH $ ZERO in RGRX. And we have strong patents issued. But if the trials work, it means TB 4 WORKS!....so the heart and neuro apps go from $ ZERO, to worth 'something"..which is better than zero! Also, NO SIDE EFFECT risk is HUGE to a pharma for heart/neuro.
Watch G Tree share price. I think "oversight" in Sout Korea is a lot more lax than what happens with SEC & Rule FD in USA. The trials and results are still blinded. But that doesn't mean "leaks" won't happen, in Korea, of trial progress and when sign up completed.. then a matter of 60-90 days or so..till final news. RGRX better buy, less risk downside, than G Tree.
I wonder how strong the regulatory oversight is in So. Korea. It's pretty damned strict in USA. Things like Rule FD are very strict in what a company can and cannot say, and when. It's different in the far east I bet. I'm sure things have a way of "getting out" and it's just normal. G Tree has strong ties with the So. Korean gov'rt entities, as they gave them a big grant to do the trials. if I had to guess at G Tree's stregnth ( and big run up) in the face of the market collapses over there...is maybe that word is getting out that the trials are going well and probably getting close to all signed up.
MArket has collapsed in last few days..of course the MM's will be heavy on the offer. They are very comfortable to short more at the offer..and showing all big offers and few bids....they hope leads to a seller, so they can cover some. But there are no real sellers now....just a drib and drab here and there. TAx sell season is done, and the MM's got very few of the tax pukers to their bids to cover what they need to.
So we are stuck. No real sellers around..and no real buyers. Few institutions can play Pink Sheet stocks.........no real analysts cover RGRX.......Few peopke really believe in TB 4 after over 20 years of mishaps and poor mgmt....and the only logical buyers are us...the die hard gamblers..but all of us probably have far more than we should. SO? No real sellers.....no real buyers...no institutions..no analysts. So I'm afraid we are in limbo land.....perhaps a 5 cent range or so.......until final trial news comes out....which I don't think by March...but perhaps April. It is WORTH the wait and slow...if it means Oras Inc is very selective on the RIGHT patients for the trial.
G Tree stock held okay with the market messes over there......sitting at 14,000.
I see that the big eye ARVO meeting is in first week May. Too bad not a month later.....if our trial data good we coudl get a highlight there. They do accept "late breaking" abstracts, but I think teh dealone is first week of MArch to apply. Not sure we coudl be done by then. You need a few weeks to get the statisticals done (at least)...so it woudl have to be finished by mid Feb. There probably wa a slow down in Dec for signing puts..holidays....and I think the protocol asks for a handful of Dr. visits in between, for various measures...which might be hard around X mas if the pt travels. But I'm sure they are hitting it hard come Jan for sign up. I think they do a 30 day follow up on top of the 30 day dose. ARVO woudl havebeen nice.
24,000 were shorted yesterday out of 44,000 traded. The MM's won't budge. It will be an uphill climb to get us 5 cents higher or so, unless there is very high volume to shake the MM faith that RGRX a POS and destined to flop again. if you want to buy more, the MM's will fill you, within reason. Most of us already have quite a bit. I don't think we here, can create the buy volume necessary for a run.
luv the 3 negative recos....but it is what I said, before mkt opened.
the bid/ask spread is 3-4 cents...widet than was in Dec..
There are almost no sellers.A mere 8,000 shares. Tax sell season is sone.
Market down 375.
MM's are on the offer side.
No sign at all of a 0.46 close.
I dunno about .46 close today. Dow is down 330 points pre open. Don't know what RGRX sellers are around, it's after tax sell season. If you were going to sell, that was the time. But I'm sure the MM's see market down 330, so they will probably be on the offer side....and probably a wide bid/ask.
how many times can they "retool the design"? It's been about 20 years so far. Pressure ulcers, Venos ulcers....EB....dry eye....the problem is that for over 20 years they kept messing up and kept coming back to the 'well" for more and more. of which we got "more and more" of the same old, same old. There's NO WAY RGRX can raise multiple millions $..BEFORE the trial results. It will crater the stock if they do so...FIRST because of the huge dilution to sell millions of shares - at what woudl have to be a bog discount from where we are - and all to raise a couple million? WHAT WILL $2 million do for a TRIAL RE TOOL! It will pay for NOTHING!. And SECOND.in doing so, RGRX signals to the world...once again..that they don't have much faith in TB 4..so they better do whatever they can to get whatever money they can.....ASAP..so they can pay themselves.
Here's one thing that caught my eye in what George Ousler stated. Read:
"...they’re currently in a phase 3 program for dry eye as well as for the treatment of neurotrophic keratitis. "
Ora is referring to RGRX's Dry Eye trial as NOT a Phase 2/3.....but he refers to it clearly as a "Phase 3". If he believs teh trial setup is a Phase 3, then if the data good enough, Ora will push iyt as such.instead of how RGRX phrases the trial as a Phase 2/3. He did not refer to the Eye NK trial as a Phase 3, which it clearly is...as Orphan status.
Humm. There is a firm OIS Podcast that covers medical stuff, eyes. Early November the did a long talk with George Ousler, who heads up Ora Inc dry eye work. Much talk was Liftegrast, but they talkd other areas. Go to OIS Podcast and resd teh transscript, but here is what he said about TB 4:
"There’s a company called ReGen Tree. It’s actually a joint venture with a company based in South Korea known as G-tree and another company based in Washington, DC known as RegeneRx. This new joint venture is evaluating a compound called Thymosin beta 4, which is an agent that’s demonstrated wound healing capabilities, also anti-apoptotic and anti-inflammatory. This was investigated, again, in the CAE model in a phase 2 program and demonstrated efficacy. And now this new company, new joint venture is pushing forward and they’re currently in a phase 3 program for dry eye as well as for the treatment of neurotrophic keratitis. This also has shown a very fast onset of action, so it’ll be interesting to see how ReGen Tree’s compound plays out."
I don't know what will happenMonday. But what I do know is that the MM's won't have the dream of tax loss sellers being aroound. Tax sell season is over.
The buys in the last couple trading days 2015 could also just have been someone "marking up" their position....just for show. It happens. What we need to see is that a buyer follows thru in the new trading year.
Bull....I don't think a fimnancing is near. why? There's enough money to pay JJ salary. I give plenty of time at 120 days to hear of trial results. If trials do not go well, RGRX craters......so no way will he be able to raise money on a flop in eye trials.. These two trials are the 'end all" for us, imo. Who woudl fund a heart or neuro trial, if TB 4 fails in eyes/
So if the trials DO succeed, RGRX stock will go a lot higher than $1..so why woudl he dilute at $1? SECOND! if the trials Do succeed, G Tree may seek to monetize it by doing a BIG deal $$ with a big pharma..and RGRX will benefit. THIRD....if trials do work, WHY sell cheap stock? Simple SOLUTION! RGRX still controls ALl TB 4 eye rights for Canada, all of Europe, South America, Africa and other places. If the two trials work, international pharma will be begging RGRX to sell them the rights $$$$ to those countries! JJ woudl be a FOOOL to sell cheap stock! if trial works, just do a deal for EUROPE rights! And JJ a fool to sell stock at $1 before trial news! because it dilutes! And WHAT GOOD is $1 million to RGRX if eye trials flop! No one will ever believe in TB 4 again. eyes are a direct hit w/ TB 4. best chance. A heart or neuro trial is far, far harder to do successfully, because it has to be a systemic injection, or IV dosing... and short half life. The eyes are a very simple direct hit oif TB 4.....4 times a day, easy s pie. No IV's, no injections, no half life worries. RGRX is toast if eyes fail. It will fold up anyways then. So selling stock for $1 won't save it.
If the 2 trials go incredibly well, with very low P Values......a ten bagger may be low. Just look at Shire's 'lifetgrast". The success of that dry eye drug in trials (not approved yet0 boosted Shires market cap by $3 BILLION. Just do those numbers to RGRX and 100 million shares out. If TB 4 works as hoped, it will blow doors off both RESTASIS and LIFTEGRAST. Both those dry eye drugs have issues. Both are long dosages. TB 4 is 30 days. Both have side effects. RESTASIS has pretty bad ones and Liftegrasts are minor, but there. TB 4 may REPAIR the eye as well as create tears. restasis only aids in tear creation, NO healing of cornea.
RGRX trades in the 'PINK SHEETS". which means it is OFF LIMITS to almost all institutional types. And those that know of TB 4, basically gave up after 20 years of fails and delays. Also obvious that Finkelstein was a poor executive. So no one really cares. Close to 75% of RGRX is held closely (inclues us dopes). Leaves about 25 million float only! If TB 4 works in TWO late trials )phase 3 and Phase 2/3), and does so with great P Value...with 30 day dosing and NO SIDE EFFECTS? AND it helps HEAL the eye surface and aids in tears? No one will want Restasis or Liftegrast!. And just go back to Shire PR's. Liftegrast trial succsees added $3 BILLION to Shire market cap. A ten bagger for RGRX from 0.40 cents is $4.00....or a $400 million market value. but we NEEd solid and great results with LOW P Values in trials. if it doesn't work or "muddy" results.....we're screwed. But if good, Finkelstein has to get RGRX OUT OF THE PINK SHEETS! Then the MM games HALT and NITE has to somehow buyback a TON they are short .playing the "penny stock scam down & short" game. It has worled for YEARS for NITE. But watch out. 120 days or so will tell.
the MM shorted just under 50% of yesterdays volume....again. They seem to be just on auto pilot.....that RGRX a POS and just short more as needed to "cap" it as best they can. They've got to be short at least 2 million by now. Maybe 3 million. And now is JAN 1, so they cannot count on tax sellers being here now to sell to their bid. Most other longs here are fully aware that in 120 days is trial news. And these longs have been here too long not to want to see teh results, and some may buy more. Stock seems in firm hands because NO ONE expects teh trials to work. Thus we are a $43 million market cap, with one phase 3 and one phase 2/3. watch out MM.
I checked the proxy for 2015 to see ownership stakes. Interesting. These figures include things like options and warrants, so fully diluted pro forma. Sigma Tau entities control 35%. G Tree controls 19.3%. Management and officers control 11.5%. This all adds up to 65.8% closely held. I also bet that close to 10% of RGRX is held by "long term longs'. One poster here says he knows handful of folks that add close to 5% between them all. Then us dopes, who must own six figures each. So this can put total shares to around 75% closely held or playing for the end all news.. if the trials succeed, there may be only 25% of the float available for any institutional types wanting in. Which means you are looking at about 25 million shares...and of that I guess between 2-3 million is short. So if teh trials work, you got a coiled spring here.
The other thing that will HALT this MM scam and short and all but fraud, is if trials work, RGRX may be able to GET OUT of the OTC PINK SHEETS...a scammers delight. If RGRX can step UP to one notch higher of real Nasdaq listing, these pink sheet scam MM's are in doo-doo....because then many OTHEr MM's will sign on to trade......if the trial works. Volume will explode. Which brings in the computer traders too....HFT's...and momentum traders. Fingers crossed.
ALSO! Beware shorts! because Congress authorized the bio blenders credit for ALL OF 2016, it means that SEB will be ADDING that as REVENUE EACH QUARTER! Not at year end! Bio diesel is rising fast and may break $3.00 a gallon because refiners MUST buy in 2016 1.9 BILLION gallons! 200 millionmore than 2015! So now SEB will see HIGHER bio deisel prices, PLUS, for every gallong they make in any quarter, SEB get's to BOOK REVENUE of 41.00 a gallon. And SEB's bio divison is inside Seabard FOODS division. which means even with low pork.corn is low and BIO FUELS ARE GOING UP! So SEB Foods will have better numbers tan expected, because all ANYONE looks at is PORk prices, when they SHOULD be looking at bio deisel prices and TAX CREDITS...which both will soften the blow a LOT of low pork prices!
I hope and PRAy that Bresky knows this and is buying back stock now. he just got $500 million. SEB is trading $400 BELOW it's liquidation value. I don't knwo whay Bresky doesn't take it private. it also won't surprse me to see Obama LIFT TEH CUBA EMBARGO BEFORE HE LEAVES OFFICE......which is a huge thing for SEB. but no one cares or sees...Cuba or teh bio fuels cash cow.
I can't wait for midnight and hopefully the invcessant tax selling will slow down. And teh shorts too.
FYI? The Seaboard Fods divison is ALL PORK, right? That is what peoplke believe. but within Seaboard Foods is a subsidiary called High Plains BioEnergy. It's a hidden gem and possible cash cow. SEB built a big bio deisel refining plant next to it's pork plant. Finished MArch 2008. Runs continuos and uses waste fat from pigs. This plant is capable of producing up to 34 MILLION gallons of bio diesel. it's big. SEB also produeces biogas which they use to fuel their boilers. SEB also converted their tractor trailers (at least 45) to compressed natural gas (CNG). Nat gas has plummeted, to SEB benefit.
BUT!~ SEB Pork numbers will be better than some thing 4th Q. because at end of Nov Obama and his EPA MANDATDED that big refiners INCREASE the biodeisel they have tio buy to blend in to their diesel.. the mandate for 2016 is up to 1.9 BILLION gallons they must buy, up from 1.6 billion 2015. Capacity isn't easy for 200 million gallons extra. In october biodeisel traded at $2.20 a gallon. It is now $2.80 a gallon..and rising fast. On top of that. Congress signed again the Bio Blenders credit of $1.00 a gallon made.for 2015, THEN THEY also gave it for 2016!. So because of INCREASED mandate to BUY 200 million gals more, bio deisel is going up. And Every gallon SEB makes they get a $1.00 tax credit..which is marked as revenue. So tax credits and increasing bio prices will help Seaboard Foods because it's High Plains Bio is inside SEB Foods. Which means 4th Q for Seaboard Foods may show up to $26 MILLION MORE in revenue! It's the bio energy that is going to surprsie the shorts and sellers for 4th Q 2015. I am hoping and praying that SEB is buying back stock. It is not as bad as the SEB bears believe. And SEB Marine is in PEAK season. SEB Marine RAISED all pics. And SEB Marine get's huge benefit from $37 oil! Breasky is INDSNAE not to take SEB private.
MM is tipping his hand.....they've got to be short over 2 million by now...maybe even 3 million. They'be been shorting RGRX for years now, and overall the volume to buy back just isn't there. So yesterday 111,000 traded. MM's shortd 63,000. It tells you they really believe RGRX is a POS. It also shows clues that they are short a lot, because they have to offer more and more shares short to try and keep a lid on it. The MM was hoping and playing for more tax loss sellers. but they never really came. They saw that 5 million shares RGRX traded between .45 and almost .60 )April to June)..so they bet that all they had to do for December was print down and hold down RGRX at .40 or below.....and all those shares would come to them on the bid side as tax loss sells. It never came. So those 5 million shares from .45 to .60 bought April to June.pretty much stayed put. Loss or no loss.
So now the MM is in a quandary..a few months more for trial results. There are no potential sellrs for taxes anymore. Thet short and bet RGRX a POS........but to protect their short they are forced to short more at .43....OR? they just let it drift highr if they have to short more. If you own RGRX now, you are probably aware of trial details and news...it's 120 days away. If you didn't sell for tax loss this year, indicates they play for the end all , win or lose.trial result. No real sellers at .43, except the MM aho will be forced to short to you to try and "cap" it from further losses to them.!
But the clue will come tonight when we see the SHO short interest figs. If that 40k came dowm to a .40 offer, and it was quickly taken.....was it a MM just trying to smack RGRX down......or was it a straggler long tsellers probably doing tax stuff. We don't know. I think it is more MM's trying to cap it and they short to it...but a buyer takes it. If majority of volume today was taken at oiffer and was shorted by MM's........they can either keep increasing their short to "cap" RGRX from going higher......or raise the ask offer, to see if they still come for it. The MM's are short a TON of RGRX as a trade position. What the SEC reports as only 7,000 shares short in RGRX is total bunk. I'd say the MM's are short over 2 million RGRX......but they have a MM exemption from SEC to either report their short or borrow shares.
Kind of expected. MM's were full of bluster, showing large offers, during Dec......they were just hoping to #$%$ tax loss sellers.so we got some prints and tax sellers down to .36....37...but overall the tax sell voluime was pretty light. This kind of screwed up the MM thinking. Didn't really happen as they hoped. They know tax selling is over basically.....so the spreads widened and they aren't showing huge offers to #$%$ people. And if there were no real sellers during tax sell season, the MM knows the sellers may not be as plentiful come Jan 1.......so the MM shows less on offer side and waits to see. Pretty much all volume today is UPTICk buying.....save two 2,000 share lot sells at opening.
Interesting thing will be to see how much of the buying is shorted by MM.as opposed to a long seller at the offer. I don't see many long sellers around.....so if the MM's are forced to short, they raise the price and offer less at the ask.
see that g tree is up 1,250 today.....about 10.5% move.
CAn't figure why a korean investor wouldn't not buy RGRX as well. We still own all europe and we control all TB 4 aspects outside of eye and skin....(re: heart and near). RGRX at 39 cents a far better and less risky way to play TB4. If there are problems with teh current trials, a helluva lot more downside in g tree than RGRX.