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OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. Message Board

snogreen 220 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Aug 30, 2000
  • Reply to

    Heart and Neurological Indications

    by bocamp1 Jan 31, 2015 2:54 PM
    snogreen snogreen Feb 2, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    I hope you're right. Sad thing is that RGRX has pretty good patents in heart and neuro already given. That's usually a holdback for a big pharma looking to partner a drug. They won't do it and spend $$$ if they on't own the IP. RGRX pretty much does. The closest to possibility woudl be neuro..cuz' Henry Ford has done over 5 years of work on it. The last abstract I posted by them seemed to be interesting in that it was a summary of all the work they've done. So I wonder if they are done with their pre clinical stuff. And they a few years ago were tagged by RGRX that they would do a small physician sponsoired euro trial. But Henry Ford appears to have no interest. If they don't, it makes it a harder sell to a big pharma. But who knows. HF does get respect. The heart stuff is no where cl;se to the pre clinical work HF has done.....heart is a long shot. Other sad thing is that RGRX put themselves in a box, in terms of what they can now get $ for a TB 4 partner deal in neuro or heart. No big pharma will logically pay more than what Koreans just paid for all TB 4 in eye area..and that was $1 million plus royalty and a small back end JV slice. The Koreans stole it. They got Orphan Status Eye Nk with an FDA approved 'GO" phase 3. for $1 million. For the life of me I don't understand why Ora Inc couldn't sell it to one of their $$$$ eye clients. $1 million to them is maybe a few housrs expenses, of their total yearly R&D spending.

  • Reply to

    Now Costco is offering $5.00 a share

    by fstout57 Jan 30, 2015 1:30 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 30, 2015 1:58 PM Flag

    Hey, don't blame it on JBS or call them corrupt. You just didn't do your homework. It is clear as a bell that JBS Brazil owns 75% of PPC. that means PPC operates at their wishes and desires - NOT yours!. And JBS told PPC that they wanted a $1,200,000,000.00 dividend and that PPC woudl just have to really debt up it's balance sheet to pay them. Minority holders had no say.

    The second point is why trash JBS? Because you have every chancve to buy into JBS! If what JBS did to PPC was not healthy for PPC, then buy the company that benefits.....JBSAY! I shiftd out of much of my PPC a few months ago, and I bought JBSAY. The stock is up, but the currency declines in Brazil temper that. So be warned. but I am very happy I did and I buy more JBSAY. I sold all I had left of PPC when I saw that bombshell of the dividend , basically to fund JBS.... explained all to me. JBS didn't give a hoot how badly they loaded up PPC with debt, JBS wanted $1.2 billion.....so now I'm out of PPC and probably won't get back...but I am a lot bigger in JBSSAY....and I still play PPCanyway, because JBSAY owns 75% of PPC

  • Reply to

    TSN

    by kpolhj Jan 30, 2015 9:26 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 30, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    JBS is not in as bad shape as you think. Yes, they are heavy debted and high coupons. Ballpark it around $14 billion debt. But I recall JBS has about $4.8 billion cash Q3?

    Second, JBS is knocking the numbers out of the park. 70-75% of their revenues are in US DOLLARS......The Brazilian Real has gone from 2.40 to 2.69......JBS keeps the dollars in US for safety, but for accounting translate that back into brazil figs at 2.69 reals....explosive. Furthermore, with the huge downdraft in the Real, ...even tho'70-75% of JBS revenues in US dollars....the weak Real is boosting JBS exports HUGE. McDonalds and KFC buy a lot from JBS. Beef prices sky high for US beef McDonalds....now McD can buy JBS beef brazil at a 15-20% DISCOUNt because of the Dollar vs Real currency. JBS Brazil is minting money right now............and collapsed oil prices reduce their costs too.

    I do not believe JBS sucked out $1.2 billion from PPC to bolster balance sheet. I believe JBS took it because they needed it for another large acquisition. They sit on $4.8 billion cash (last Q, more in Q4)..and the $1.2 billion from PPC will push their cash to over $6 billion. JBS has a deal target, imo.

  • Reply to

    TSN

    by kpolhj Jan 30, 2015 9:26 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 30, 2015 11:53 AM Flag

    No, it was NOT equal benefit. JBS sucked out of PPC's balance sheet, which was PRSTINE beforehand...$1,200,000,000.00 and JBS will use that money to buy another company thatPPC shoudl have bought.

  • Reply to

    TSN

    by kpolhj Jan 30, 2015 9:26 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 30, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    You're missing the point.the whole narrative of the shorts (I am not one)....SAFM is opening a large chicken plant in TX....then yesterday, did you see that TSN is doing a $110,000,000 chicken expansion in GA? SAFM and TSN will be increasing production substantially...so the short narrative is pure supply and demand......vastly increased supply...with same demand, leads to lower prices.

    I am avoding PPC....good company tho'.....but this stupid special dividend showed me what PPC is all about.....it's for the benefit of JBS.....THEY wantd the $1.2 billion from PPC. You're not thinking clearly if you rreally believe PPC did that dividend to "make nice" to minority shareholders. wake up! JBS isn't concerned of the PPC stock price. You are! All PPC wanted to do was raid PPC for money and let PPC debt themselves up. I think JBSAY is a far better long term buy, than PPC..and JBSAY owns 75% of PPC.....also the dollar is VERY strong against the Brazilian real.....so your USA dolar buys a LOT more in brazilian currency.....you get MORe JBSAY shares for same $.

  • A year ago, G-Tree was called 'Digital aria"....they were a technology company. 9 months later they are "g-TreeBNT".....now the site says they do pumps and motors....television amd movie production.....and fantastic biotechnology.

    I found on Korean exchange their number is 115450. G Tree has 18,921,484 shares outstanding....and total capital of 9,460,742,000 Korean Won. the Won trades at 0.00091 to US Dollar. Which means with 18.4 million shares and 9,46 billion won capital.......then G-tree is worth $8.6 million dollars. RGRX has 107 million diluted shares, at 15 cents a share, means RGRX has a marlkket cap of about $16 million..........so RGRX market cap is TWICE the capital of G-Tree.

    I couldn't get an exact quote on G-Tree...jujst the number of shares and capital.

    If RGRX has TWICE the market of G-tree...where will G-tree get teh money for all these trials? Or the 41 million to buy USA rights..........or the $875,000 to buy 5.5 million RGRX at 15 cents w/in a couple days.

    Something does not smell right with them..so I say FOCUS on Lee's trial in China.

  • Reply to

    Any quotes on G Tree?

    by snogreen Jan 29, 2015 11:57 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 29, 2015 12:21 PM Flag

    Will you get off SCLN! I suppose you never lost on any stock. liar! I am in fine fettle.

  • Anyone know how or if you can get quotes on GTree shares? GTree probably a better buy. Let's just say that I think they will "do" whatever they have to to show a trial success in dry eye.....then the "pump" starts that Gtree owns ALL THE USA RIGHTS FOR TB 4 IN EYES....a BILLION $ market.....then the stock soars in Korea....on that "pump".....but then?.....the, well.......word starts with a "D"......starts. All GTree has to do is "make sure" the dry eye Korea trial result is positive..and they become rich overnight. That;'s easier to do in Korea, not US.

  • snogreen snogreen Jan 29, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    My gosh, you don't have a CLUE do you. Do you do any research? you say:

    "Is that why PPC was once bankrupt? Look it up. Not too silly for investors."

    Yes, PPC once was bankrupt. But PPC was not owned or brought in to bankruptcy by any Brazilian. PPC was it's own company. Brazilians had NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. the Brazilians on;y stepped in AFTER iPPC went into bankruptcy and the BRAZILAINS turned around PPc AFTER THEY GOT IT FROM THE BANRUPTCY COURT! Wow. the ignorance....

  • Reply to

    FOR SALE at pennies on the dollar.

    by rac0cker Jan 29, 2015 9:42 AM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 29, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    No, what I said is that to OUTSIDE investors no TB 4 trial has worked yet. It goes back to dry eye trial. RGRX picked only a subset of four parts of the cornea to go for trial design. The two subsections they chose as PRIMARY endpoints did not meet statistical. but two subsections of cornea that were NOt part of trial design did the statistical. Buit in minds of FDA and outside investors, the trial did not work.

    which all goes back to the crucial point. RGRX has to disclose tehe trial protocols and design of the Lee's trial..we have no idea what primary endpoints they will seek. If they seek the endpoints where Ora Inc SAW statistical efficacy, then I might buy stock, that Lee's will match that over there. But how can anyone risk buying on a blind trial? We have no idea what teh design is.

  • Reply to

    Where do I even start

    by thebasiles777 Jan 28, 2015 7:33 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    Whaaaa? You say:

    "As far as our share price goes our short will still work his game until revenues are on the near horizons."

    Aren't you skipping a few steps? revenues? There is not yet a single statistically worthy trial of TB 4 anywhere, toi get approval or revenues!!!! . So before you hype revenues and a soaring stock.....focus on the Lee's trial.....I highly doubt that the brand new Koreans biotech company will do much of anything until they see how Lee's China trial went..and NO WAY will Koreans ever spend the many millions needed for USA trials --- until they see what Lee's comes up with. Focus on the important one....Lee's dry eye China.

  • snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    Well, if that is the sum total of your knowledge and investment research...that the JBSAY chart looks "terrible"....then good luck to you, you don't have a clue of what JBS is or does.The Brazialn Real tanked with the strong dollar and collapsing oil. Over 70% of JBS revenues in US Dollars. when translated back into Reals, a fortune is made. But just as good, with the Real tanking.......it means that to buy goods in Brazil just got a lot cheaper..that means EXPORTS will grow faster and JBS is a huge exporter of products..........they are large suppliers to KFC and McDonalds....and both those companies will be buying BIG from JBS with the super strong dollar. Beef & chicken prices are much lower in Brazil as well. Mark my words....in March JBS will report a block buster quarter. And around the same time, they will make a big M&A deal, most likely a US firm (that should be PPC's acquisition). Charts are junk. In 30 years I have never once met a rich chartist.

  • snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    THat is just silly. PBR is controlled by the gov't. JBSAY is controlled by the family that started it. Furthermore, over 70% of JBS revenues are in US Dollars. JBS is huge, you have no idea how big. And PPC is their piggy bank when they need a billion or so,

  • snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Yup. I figured that out a while ago. I sold PPC and bought JBSAY....in the low to mid $7's. JBSAY is a far better deal and they own 75% of PPC. But the currency swings are there.

    No one on this board has figured it out. PPC is run for the pleasure of JBSAY, not PPC shareholders. This $1.5 BILLION dividend was ridiculous. PPC had a pristine balance sheet, now they will be debted up big time.for what? Siimple answer. JBSAY is using PPC as their "piggy bank savings account". So when JBSAY needed $1.2 billion cash, they made PPC pay a huge dividend. It was NOT MEANT for you retail holders! It was meant for JBS! Next up? what you will see is that JBS takes the $1.2 billion from PPC and JBS buys a very big company....a chunk of it paid for BY YOU SHAREHOLDERS of PPC!....thank you $1.2 billion. the company that JBS buys shoudl have, by all rights, been bought by PPC, so PPC can diversify from chicken.. Didn't happen. PPC is worse off for it. FIRST because they will soon be debted up about $2 billion. And SECOND.....JBS is taking the next company themselves, when PPC is the one in need of diversiying beyond tight chicken margins usually. IMO? in next 3 years you will make far more $$ in JBSAY, than PPC.

  • Reply to

    Great Deal for RGRX Shareholders

    by bocamp1 Jan 28, 2015 2:41 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    You never answered a single thing I said. you just go back to ancient SCLN? ONE stock? I been doing this a long time and I own and play many stocks. What I lost in SCLN was made back within a year. Not big deal....and it washed other profits i had that year as well.

    But back to RGRX. If the Korea and China soon dry eye trials are so wonderful and exciting, why did RGRX leaop at the chance to exit all USA rights for eyes for $1 million and a few other things? That eye NK phase 3 approved orphan trial is worth far more than that to some pharma. And as I said, if Lee's trial dry eye works...the USA rights are worth 10, 20, 30 times the $1 million RGRX just soldl them for. This is a so-so deal - at best. What it guarentees is that Finkelstein always wins. There's enough money to pay him $125,000 a year for a good handful of years. he wins. If trials flop, Finkle loses on stock, but he still pass "Go" and collects $125,000 regardless. No matter what happens, Finkel Tinkel wins.

  • Reply to

    Great Deal for RGRX Shareholders

    by bocamp1 Jan 28, 2015 2:41 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    It's a so so deal, for RGRX. Between the FDA granting RGRX Orphan status for eye NK, and then the FDA approvong direct to a Phase 3 trial..then why on earth did RGRX sell ALL the eye area..eye NK and dry eye too.....for $1 million for ALL US rights? Do you know what a big & real pharma pays to get a drug up to the Phase 3 stage? Tens or even hundreds of millions. So RGRX has a Phase 3 orphan trial OKAYED by FDA......worth barely $1 million??? And also, if you are so confident in the China trial, and Korea.why didn't Finkel wait to see if China trial wins. Because if China trial wins, USA rights for Phase 3 trial Orophan eye NK and druy eye are worth 10-20...maybe 30 TIMES the $1 million he just took. He'll probably only get $1 million for neuro now.

    Glad you're bidding! I hope you make a killing. i'm holding pat.

  • Reply to

    Korean wake-up call?

    by fl_geezer Jan 28, 2015 1:54 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Nah, It's pretty clear to me the game plan by Finkel..is to sell off what USA rights he can......he's sold skin and today sold eyes, for $1 million........so my guess is he tries to sell neuro next for $1 million. Neuro has backing of Henry Ford's research. I doubt there's much interest in heart, yet.

    So then RGRX collects and sits on a few million $$. RGRX no l;onger does any trial, nor any pre clinical work. They roll down to a 2 room office and let almost all who still around, go. Finkel and Goldie will still collect their $$..Finkies all set. He'll then get $125,000 a year for playing computer games and waiting for others to do trials. But if these are the best deals he can get.....then he had no choice. But I honestly thought Ora Inc woudl have found one of their big eye clients willing to pay more than $1 million for eyes.

    If the Lee's trial in China dry eye starts sometime soon......and that trial works? Then it wil look awfully stupid that Finkel sold all USA eye rights for $1 million. The fact that Finkel did not WAIT for the China trial results, is a clue of is confidence in it ?????. he took anything he could get, beforehand. ME? I woudl have gambled and waited for Lee's to finish.

  • Reply to

    news is only so-so

    by snogreen Jan 28, 2015 12:47 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    You missed it again, bo. The dilution risk of 5.5 million shares to G Tree is NOTHING compared to what woudl happen if RGRX decided to sell 40 or 50 MILLION shares at 10 cents to fund a trial like neuro. The 5 million dilution from G Tree is nothing compared to that risk. Disagree all you want....but the fact that RGRX sold G Tree all skin rights for almost nothing and sold G tree all USA eye rights for $1 million and some royalty and small JV interest........that leads that all RGRX can get for neuro or heart is maybe $1 million. So after RGRX sells all USA eyes for $1 million, my guess is they will try to do the same for heart or neuro....$1 million and royalty. Then there are no more stock sale diluting and RGRX not belly up anytime soon. But then RGRX just becomes a shell of a company.....waiting on otherst o do trials. Guess that is better tyhan RGRX doing them.

  • Reply to

    news is only so-so

    by snogreen Jan 28, 2015 12:47 PM
    snogreen snogreen Jan 28, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    Hey, you take it as negative, I see it as just the truth. G Tree already got USA rights for all TB 4 in skin area for almost nothing. G Tree just got ALL the TB 4 eye area for $1 million. So G Tree got all skin and eye. Only area left is neuro. henry Ford will probably find somone to take it, since now RGRX has done a USA deal for TB 4 rights for only $1 million. Once RGRX sells neuro , then that is it. All RGRX does is pay the office rent and Finkel plays computer games and waits. The only other possibility is cosmetic fragments. But it read to me like G Tree got all TB 4 skin rights?

    The only over the top good news I saw is that RGRX will have enough money now to just sit and wait. But the MM's were playing RGRX for either more massive dilution, or what they really wanted..RGRX bankrupt. No more big dilution, and RGRX will not go BK anytime soon.

  • snogreen by snogreen Jan 28, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    I'm not that excited about the news G Tree is getting USA dry eye and eye NK TB 4 rights. They are unproven entity. It also points that RGRX sold all the eye TB 4 rights for $1 million, and royalties if any later. Now, why couldn't Ora Inc find a large US or European eye pharma client they have, to take TB 4 for eyes for a measly $1 million? I guess no interest. So maybe RGRX had no choice.

    The other good or bad is that RGRX just set the price precident. A major TB 4 indication for ALL USA rights, can be bought for $1 million. RGRX just did. SO??? That just set the porice for the TB 4 in neuro areas...price for thatt is now $1 million only. no pharma will pay RGRX $5 or $10 million for TB 4 neuro, if G Tree got eyes for $1 million. So what this tells me is that RGRX will now offer to sell TB 4 neuro for around $1 million. At that point, RGRX is DONE as an entity ongoing. Then all RGRX is a "sitter". RGRX won't do anymore thrial thus, others will. RGRX won't do any more pre clinical, all done. RGRX just sits and lets Lee's, G Tree and whoever buys neuro for $1 million......and if any work, RGRX just collects royalty or milestones. The REALLY GREAT news is that the MM's who are short a few million RGRX, play it for RGRX going bankrupt and to ZERO. RGRX is not going BK now. RGRX is selling all it's TB 4 rights. then RGRX pays office rent and a couple salaries and WAITS it out. Bankrupt won't happen for a couple/few years and only if every trial flops. MM'sp layed RGRX as BK much sooner. Won't happen now.

OB
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