As I posted in my earlier reply…the MM's (NITE mostly) are able to see this phantom bid that appears. But the MM has no clue if the bid is a phantom one, a real one..or just a game. The MM's by and large believe that RGRX is a junk penny stock. So they don't want to really own it. They rather play short side. But they don't know what this phanton bid is. So the MM's are wary to do what they always have done which is to show larger offers and cap RGRX price. But they don't want the risk that the phantom bid is a real one and the bidder may know something they don't….and it is a risk for them to show a large opening short offer , as a risk the bidder may take them out and they are holding the bag…short. So the MM's aren't showing their usuall offers, just in case..and they aren't showng much in the way of bids either, and they think RGRX is a POS penny stock (has been for years, so far). So what do they do? Make very wide bid ask spreads, and they sit.
Not sure I totally agree. It has taken time, but they have transformed OB. And the final change is when they get some legacy stuff off the books sold soon. they say that will free up $100 million of reserves? And their 20% stake in SYA has come back to life. And in a not so great P& C reinsurance area, Sirius has been pretty disclipned and getting about a 92% combined ratio. And WTM did great on their sale of Esurance too.
What I DON'T like about WTM is the accountability for other performance and why there should be such high bonues for pitiful performance. Nor should mgmt get free hours of the company jet. This Gillespie guy manages a lot of money for WTM, and he is a BOD member. In FIVE years he has yet to come ANYWHERE CLOSE to matching the investment return of the S&P 500. Nor has the other "MBA WASPY GUY" who runs WTM Advisors.he manages equity monye and also has not come close to a simole S&P 500 Index return. But he did manage the bonds decently well and did okay on the spike in rates by having a shorter duration.
There is nothing we can do with mgmt PADDING themselves and the investment side people performing miserably.unless Ray BArrette wakes up and makes the changes. That is where we need a known activist investpr like Ackman or Icahn to expose the misdeeds. But what WTM CAN DO right now is to buy back buttloads of stock when WTM is $65 below book, or LIQUIDATION value. They have over $1 billiojn of cash. And since the WTM investing team can't get much right, money shoudl be TAKEN from them and use to buy back a ton of stock at this discount. then shareholders will benefit,
It is what it is…we just wait for news. the good thing about the phantom flash big size bids is that NITE will see them.and it "F's with their head. They don't knwo if the big bid is a ruse, a game..or could it be real. So if I was the NITE market maker in RGRX it would make me think twice about showing a size offer, which of course would be a short sale offer…if there is possibly a bidder around who could take me out..and that guy might know something more than NITE. So, how NITE wil react will be to widen the spreads and cut back on any games they might play.as they have done for years successfully..by always showing short offers which cap RGRX. The fact that NITE is not playing that game much now points that they have seen that big phantom bis come and go.and they just don't know if it real.…or if a game player….so NITE back off the risk-on side and makes very wide bid/offer….play it safe and see what comes.
Who knows. There's always a risk when you play & wait on a gov't approval situation. If the NHS rejects the Scoping report that the NICE referred to them, it is unlikely that the NICE would proceed with their final appraisal. they would drop TB 4. But if the NHS gives an "okay".NICE will probably proceed with the final approval review. So the wait game is..…NHS says "no" we go down…NHS says "okay" we soon after go up…..possibly way up. All we can do is hope and pray.
I'm not sure that if you see a few tens of thousands of shares trade down to 17 cents or below..that it indicates insdier trading from someone in England knowing NHS rejects. because there is NO PREMIUM built into RGRX shares price indicating a huge gamble on a possible approval. What woudl someone do over there? Short 20,000 shares at around 16 cents, only to then try and cover at 10 cents? they make a 6 cent profit before commissions and taxes. On 20,000 shares a 6 cent profit is $1,200 before comissions and taxes. I doubt if anyone would take that kind of risk to make so little money. Risk JAIL TIME for maybe $1,000 profit? I don't think so.
who knows what this flash bidder is doing or why. He never get's filled and his bid disappears soon after. NITE will figure that out, but NITE is thus wary about showing much size on the offer side, just in case this flash bidder decides to take them out in any size offer. So? NITE just plays careful and shows offer at 25 cents and drops their bid to 17 cent range. Whoever this flash bidder is, they make not get their stock, but what they do do is make any MM (NITE) think twice about playing "cap it and short it" offer game. Thats a good thing…very little shown on offer.
I still believe that possible England news is the surprise on the horizon. RGRX won't have all the new Korean money till late August. So? No way can a trial start soon. And if they don't get dough till August, they'll probably then wait to see if the FDA gives an Orphan Drug Grant for Eye NK.and that isn't given till November.
I guess only other two things… are LEE's and ENGLAND. Lee's signed the TB 4 deal in mid 2012. It is now almost mid 2014. They are not doing any trail, so far. I do not think that a TWO YEAR wait for Lee's to do a dry eye tria - ANDl was not was RGRX was expecting. But all you have to do is look at the SMOG in China..everyone wears surgical masks..to see that the smog & polllution will affect eyes.…then where the F is Lee's?
The England thing? Charles dickens had it right of the English "system" in the 1850's……referring to the 'Circumlocution Offices"……round and round. The England approval process is nothing but meetings, memos and job creation. The TB 4 Dry eye possibility was first started in mid 2012 there. Now it is March 2014…and it is still being shuffled like a stack of papers between all kinds of different "offices". The NICE woudl not "refer" TB 4 unless they wished it. But the NICE cannot approve TB 4 without the "circumlocutio" of the NHS. If the NHS approves it…then the NICE does their final "appraisal". But, IMO? we'll have our answer, if the NHS gives their blessing to TB 4 dry eye. The NICE would not have asked the NHS permission… unless they wished it. So the BIG news, if we can catch it…..is the REPLY to the January 8 SCOPING report that was "circumlocated" to the NHS. I expect that report next 30-60 days….but if the NHS approves..it could still take some time for the NICE to "circulate" their final decision.
Lee's is not the news. Who KNOWS if… or when they even start a trial there. England is the big surprise kicker here.…and what the NHS says
Yup, seems like Morgan Davis is on the take too. WTM bills him as 'lead outside" director. I don't think so. not from what I read. Morgan davis is on THREE Boards tied to WTM….WTM itself, OneBeacon and Montpelier RE (which was started by WTM). I added up his total compensation for 2012……stock and cash…and Morgan Davis got $600,000 for being so closely tied into WTM. Needless to say….for $600,000 a year..for simply being a non working Director….is a pretty cushy life. Nice work. Can I apply for the job? I have a "waspy" name too.
Seems like WTM is full of waspy MBA's…who've hardly ever been able to beat the simple S&P 500 Index… investing WTM's stock portfolio. Pitiful. So Morgan Davis is blind or in cahoots..…to put up with it. Certainly not INDEPENDENT. I wonder if he get's free use the WTM private jet as well.
Too bad, because today the warrants traded BELOW your bid if 5 cents…they traded at 0.0402.
I guess the MM's can not show your bid and take it fron you cheaper, if any trade…because you didn't show large enough size. Still….it stinks that you bid 5 cents..and the MM's take the trade at 0.0402.
I don't think it's that easy…there was a 'Borders" group that did meet every other month..but I think this NICE group has to make a report to the NHS..then they study and send back theor recommendation (up or down) to NICE..and then they decide on approval. Basically, I want to see what the NHS says..because the NICE refers TB 4 to them..NICE would not recommend a TB 4 review to NHS, unless they were positive about TB 4. So if the NHS comes back "yes"…..it still needs a final go around ny NICE….but I hope it's just a formality. Just have to wait and see when NHS replies to the 'Scoping report"…that was done on January 8.
the 25 cent print was nice…BRIEFLY.no way will NITE and other MM's allow that to stand.if they can help it…you'll need some SERIOUS buy volume to see NITE give up controlling RGRX.
Bo.I said I was gratified and surprised at the reaction to 25% dilution. I expected worse. But I would like to read the SEC filing on the deal to unserstand better. RGRX has NOT filed anything with SEC. I want to see if the stock Koreans buy is saleable at any time. But I agree, they would not be able to "flip" 19 million shares.but they could reduce.
As to Lee's….I go what LEE's says..not RGRX. Lee's did the deal in mid 2012. it is now mid 2014..almost TWO years….Lee's has not made any effort to do a trial i don't care what RGRX says on website..…I care what Lee's says….and Lee's has not said they are doing any trial.yet..hopefully soon.
RGRX won't get the other 1/2 of Korean money till August.…so don't get excited about RGRX doing a trial anytime soon. I still think they wait for Orphan money….November.
It's ENGLAND that intrigues me most. that is the news on the horizon I want to see. Any approval there puts RGRX over $1 easily.…even with the dilution.
bo…what are you, crazy? An England approval to sell TB 4 in Dry Eye is a "SIDEBAR"?? An approval there puts TB 4 on the worldwide MAP. An approval there puts RGRX and TB 4 on every large pharma radar.."How did we miss this one, it's only a $15 million company"
IMO? RGRX stock is deadweight for a good long while, barring this England situation. RGRX has a couple million $ now. Lee's is doing nothing with TB 4….Sigma Tau (as I've posted) cares nothing for RGRX or TB 4..ST could have put up the $$ for the Korean deal - as crumbs from lunch..ST did not. It is my guess RGRX is not going to do a dry eye trial next, but the FDA Orphan status NK eye trial…..because RGRX APPLIED for it in mid 2013. if RGRX APPLIED for Orphan Status, it only follows they ALSO want an FDA Orphan Grant to DO the trial. And as I've posted..the deadline for applying was Feb 5..the first FDA meet is May…the second os September..and they decide and give the $$$ in November. So anyone that hopes that RGRX is going to do an eye trial immedicately - after getting teh Korean $$$ is blind. Furthermore, the Korean firm is only putting up about $1 million now, the rest IS NOT TILL AUGUST 2014! So there is NO WAY RGRX is doing any trial - till way late/early 2015…in an eye indication, with the Korean money. Which then leads me back to the main point…..the ONLY catalyst here for RGRX stock price - is ENGLAND… and you poo-poo that possible outcome? if they approve it, RGRX is at least a $1 stock and probably a lot more. England is all we have to look forward to …next 60-120 days…everything else is now pushed back till 2015, IMO.
yahoo would not let me post the investment results of Board member Gillespie's "Prospector Partners". So I will re-type them.…for 1, 3 and 5 years compared to the S&P 500:
1 year prospector (2013), 23.2%
1 year S&P 500 (2013), 32.4%
3 year Prospector, 9.4%
3 yesar S&P 500, 16.2%
5 year Prospector, 12.5%
5 year S&P 500, 17.9%
Does NO ONE on the Board ever look at his performance? Sure, everyone has a bad year every now and then, we understand……by Mr. Gillespie can't even come close to the S&P…not just one bad year………every year! Ands HOW MUCH DO WE PAY HIM TO BADLY MANAGE OUR MONEY???
It only get's worse when I dig. there are some really bad conflicts of interest going on at WTM…and Ray Barrette seems to be taking care of friends, more than he is shareholders. Wait till you read this. The outside money manager WTM uses for a lot of their stock investments is "Prospector Partners". Here is what WTM tells shareholders in the 10-k how Prospector does with our money:
But it get's worse. Turns out the guy that runs Prospector is on the BOARD OF DIRECTORS of WTM..and he also is an ex-employee of WTM Advisors.where he only lasted a couple years!! So he leaves, forms his own place and WTM floods him with $$$ and then gives him a BOARD SEAT on WTM???? Read from the proxy on him:
"John D. Gillespie has been a director of the Company since 1999. Mr. Gillespie is the founder and Managing Member of Prospector Partners, LLC (“Prospector”) and has been the Chairman and President of Prospector Funds, Inc. since 2007 and a Director of Prospector Offshore Fund (Bermuda) Ltd. since 1997. Mr. Gillespie served as Chairman and President of WM Advisors (2003-2005)"
Someone please call Carl Icahn or Bill Ackman. This Gillespie is a bad manager, but not only does WTM keep him on…they reward him with a BOARD seat??? Get rid of him, Ray Barrette. i am very sure Gillespie is a nice guy…but he's hurt this company for enough years now. Tell him "bye-bye" please..then buy an S&P index fund.
Sorry to tell you…we don't get to "vote no" for mgmt bonuses. The Board of Directors and their Compensation Committee hands out the $$$$$$. We have no say.
WTM a great company…I've owned it for years…sometimes in a smaller, sometimes larger.ways. I want to own more as overall market is high and with the LARGE discount to book value..WTM is a defensive and a safer investment…at least to a downside. But there shoudl be more upside here.
Ray Barrete is not dumb..but I'm afraid he may be blind..someone has to shake him up. For the last FIVE years , neither the in house, MBA type… stock pickers at WTM.…or the outside money manager they hired….has come even CLOSE to what the S&P 500 returned. And they didn't underperform the S&P by a few percent….I'm talking the fact that ALL WTM's stock investments underperformed the S&P 500 ..for years now..by 30% to 40%. Besides pitiful..it is WRONG. What CEO puts up with such miserable performance.…and then REWARDS THESE SAME MANAGERS??? Free jet time???
we need someone like Carl Icahn or activist Bill Ackman……to shake up RAy Barette…that it is wrong to see WTM shares sell at $60 below book (liquidation) value…and it is WRON to keep on staff… miserably performing, YEAR AFTER YEAR.equity managers. Fire them all. We're all richer if you just put it into an S&P 500 fund. And it's further INSULT that Ray Barette then gives away free flight time in WTM's private jet.for these dopes. That really hurts. Maybe Warren Buffet was right & he knew something when he sold ALL his WTM stock. wake up Ray Barrette. You work for shareholders? Sometimes I wonder.
geez….I disagree…you are forgetting the major item that no one knows about, only if you read this board……RGRX is saying nothing about it….the ENGLAND situation. I'd agree with you otherwise…that RGRX is deadweight until they complete another trial shot…..but if England ever does grant a marketing approval for TB 4 in dry eye.…forget RGRX being 10 to 20 cents locked…..RGRX woudl be over $1.00 immediately..maybe even a lot higher. Just depends on what NICE and NHS say…and if they approve it, what was the price Finkelstein offered of TB 4 dry eye….he'd have to cut them a pretty good deal. But the PR of a TB 4 approval would open a lot of peoples eyes. I think we have some more info from England in next 60-90 days. The NICE has sent their info to the NHS.…if the NHS says 'Okay"…..then NICE goes for their final vote…. but NICE wouldn't apply to the NHS for their approval,… unless NICE was willing to approve it themselves.
I'm hoping RGRX stays soft or down…because only this board knows about england.
Oh, i forgot one tidbit, school teach….The FDA does not come up themselves with Orphan drugs…a company must APPLY to the FDA for an Orphan indication. what does that tell you of RGRX thoughts of a dry eye vs an NK eye trial? RGRX applied for Orphan designation for NK eyes in mid 2013.…and at end of 2013, the FDA granted the Orphan designation, and RGRX has the right to also ask FDA for a money grant to help do a trial. if RGRX was planning , upon somehow getting the monies…to do a phase 2b dry eye trial again with ORA….then RGRX would not have gone to the legnths of applying for TB 4 Orphan designation in eye NK…I am pretty sure that the next RGRX trial will be in NK eyes, Orphan status, and I bet RGRX ask for FDA grants.
Just my opinion, but I don't think RGGRX goes for a repeat Dry eye trial w/ Ora just yet. They have results of it. The results of the 4 patient compassionate use IND for NK was more impressive. there was a 100% response rate with a 50% cure rate.. Furher, being an orphan indication, the FDA will lower the bars somewhat and also may provide $$$ and tax breaks. RGRX cannot afford another screw up trial. I don't think $2 million is enough, anyways, for a larger Phase 2b dry eye by Ora. I think they try for FDA money and go where they saw 100% human response & 50% cure…NK Orphan Status eyes. Read the results:
"Dr. Steven Dunn , a corneal specialist at Detroit Medical Center , and his colleagues, presented encouraging wound-healing data from a compassionate use clinical trial evaluating the efficacy of RGN-259 (sterile Tβ4 eye drops) in the management of chronic non-healing corneal ulcers caused by the herpes zoster virus. He reported on four patients who ranged in age from 47-84, all of whom had non-healing ulcers of six weeks or longer. The patients were monitored for ulcer size, depth, associated vascularization and comfort during a 28 day treatment period and for 30 days thereafter. “All ulcers (from 0.05 to 12.6 mm2 ) showed a significant reduction in size during the 28 day treatment period with two ulcers being healed completely at 58 days and the remaining measuring 0.3 mm2and 0.1 mm2. No progressive stromal thinning was seen and there was reduced associated ocular irritation,” according to Dr. Dunn."
Well, good news and bad news. Good news is that the market reaction to a 25% dilution…was not a concurent 25% reduction is share price. Price level is MUCH better that I expected. Bad news is…..might as well back off our day to day craziness. RGRX has their mony to go forward for another trial. probably the eye NK Orphan. But if RGRX also applies for FDA Orphan grants to do the NK trial, then that money - if given - doesn't get dispursed until November…so an NK trial couldn't start till 2015.and we wouldn't have results, thus..till mid to late 2015.
Lee's may or may not initiate a China dry eye. They seem in no rush….or that they ever will. Sigma Tau seems to have forgotten anything to do with RGRX or TB4…they coudl have easily paid what the Korean firm did… I don't think Korean firm will do a trial soon either. Their thing is a "buy real cheap stock" PIPE deal kind of play.
So where does that leave us? England…..that's the only material news I see on the horizon. But that could be 60 days or so from us finding anything out. But if the NHS says "okay" to the NICE request.it is likely the NICE will grant marketing approval. That woudl be HUGE. So until that time we hear back on england…it is dead money for a while.
Demented theories? Not a single person here would know anout a possible TB 4 marketing approval in England for dry eye…unless I shared it. I call it as I see it. I don't hype that mgmt is great. I tell the truth that Sigma Tau has just about flushed RGRX down…they don't fund…it's the truth that the Lee's Hong Kong deal was almost TWO YEARS ago - and they have done NOTHING with tb4….whic the PR release stated they would…and it;s a fact that this Korean VC deal is nothing more than a gussied up PIPE deal. And I've shown that even with the new large dilution…the $2.3 million mgmt get's…RGRX is a ways off from doing a trial with it, In the meantime, expect JJ to give himself a raise. Ughh.