9% owner now 4% holder.
SAC Capital/Sigma Capital/Steven Cohen institutional sells
formerly 9% ownership
new filing 4.1% ownership
April 3rd 2014
Dec 31 2014
I read the available information. Unfortunately, we do not have the terms of the warrants
all we know is that they are for 7 years, and the new co structure agreement is definitely
leaving room for this 6% equity, which means that it is anticipated existing shareholders
will convert warrants, and the warrants may be no-cost. The fact they are leaving aside 6%
in the new structure says they are likely pro-forma no-cost warrants although the terms
have not yet been set. OK so in this environment the total new cap of newco @ 1.25B /6%
doesn't really help because judge isn't going to (well, cannot expect) award more than
current unencumbered equity. note:
The Company estimated that unencumbered assets would be $28.4 million as of March 31, 2014.
So what we should be doing is using this only. 44.4 million shares of 28.4 million value is 64 cents
per share, but there will be costs associated with the bankruptcy, so we should deduct 5% for costs
and another 5% for uncertainties, then possibly another 5% for market actions, such as people
selling shares which will pressure the price.
Thus I see that .64 really being worth about .57c and selling pressure downside to check at .50c
or lower depending on market action, but I wouldn't be willing to pay more than 60c in any scenario.
you are wrong on both counts. again today. take your gains, don't be stupid. do you know how to read a chart ?
down on an up day. the top is in. sell your stock or be left holding the flaming dung sack.
I agree it will drop but not to 11. I see it back to 12.25 then eventually 11.50 once this general market slows down.
vero it's not my fault this co failed miserably to protect shareholder value,
the last time i was here i said sell when it was 29 it fell to 12 dollars.
sure i lost around 40 dollars a long time ago but that's their fault..
anway you can think what you want and i suppose you feel like a genius because your stawk went up. yay to you. wow. but if you knew how to read short interest historicals you would see that there was a dip in the SI now it is high because they are shorting again. and correctly so because the original SS is over, now you're going to see this drop to under 30 on technicals and overvaluation due to a mild earnings beat with no other true improvements - the stock will give back and the market will also take a downturn starting by mid-April.
It's going back to 28-30 area or worse depending upon overall mkt conditions.
enjoy the price decline.
time will tell, but none of what you said changes the fact that the brands and
sales and inventory are worth more than current 6 million market cap. they have
a debt line which although amended is nearing or has reached its nexus, any
equity offering would have to by agreement be used to pay the debt. We don't
have a current balance sheet but there is 35-40 million in intangible brand values and
a sales infrastructure that fairly recently was bringing in 60 mlilion in revs per quarter
and is still over 200 million annually, they are streamlining operations, having closed
Michigan operations of Sassy moving them to NJ. If their administrative costs were
just a little less, profitability would be fairly simple to acheive.
If a larger co wants this I can see them paying up to 20 million, as the debt, inventories
are a wash, so is the balance sheet just positive about that same amount as the intangible brand assets, they are strong recognized brands with large presence and sales
I can see up to 20 million to acquire this (the shareholders are the owners), either that
or they will probably have to raise equity, probably only raise about 10 million dollars
to give the full turnaorund a chance which if priced at .50 would be 20 million more shs,
like you said, why didn't they raise equity sooner ? it could be a deal to sell all or part
of the company is in the works, which could yet be another reason why they did not
fight the nyse delist by doing that. I'm still going to rate it a buy if under 10 mil market cap.
there are hundreds of OTC stocks trading for more than 36 cents.
anyway, it's not important if they sell the company. there is new talent here
such as Bradley Sell for Kidsline, strong brands and 200 million in sales.
The business is solid, just going through some transitions which will take
another 1-2 quarters to bear fruit. Raphael knows a lot of people. So does
everyone involved in this. Take a deeper look before selling in capitulation, readers,
there is opportunity here at under 40 cents.. the market cap is only 6 million, I see
no reason why some other business wouldn't want to acquire it for its brands and
sales strengths, its supply chains at retailers and online .. has to be worth at least
15-25 million which is somewhere around a dollar/share. This will be someone's
new toy in 2014 if Raphael is done, he won't allow this co to expire at such a paltry
valuation under his leadership.
take a look at the terms of the HIVE acquisition. We're looking at over 11 million shares fully diluted, and that's only if they reach 8 million in total sales during the 2-year period. At $5.00 this stock market cap would be 55 million dollars. At $10 it would be 110 million (fully diluted after Hive shares), and they only have 250k in the bank, what if they have to raise more funds or want to finance more acquisitions with more stock ?
Fact is, the value is generous at $5... I understand the potential but will not pay this much.
it's either going to fill the gap at 30-31 or sail down to 20s. either way it's not staying here after a run like that on what was a modest earnings beat short squeeze.
- sec filings suggest one-off bad events, not permanent problems.
- market cap now grossly underpriced to its sales
- T+3 capitualation over - 3rd day after bad news no more forced selling
- recovery begins next week with gradual move to 50 cent then possibly higher
Sentiment: Strong Buy
big time ben, it's when the cold thaws out, lots of new activities and meetings.. expect coal to be defended. i'm not new, been following this and others for years.. now is the time..
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Fundamentals ? check.
Thermal outlook improved ? check.
Metallurgical bottomed ? check.
One of few options to get in coal ? check.
Short Interest over 25% ? check.
Cost cutting ? check.
Republicans expected to win Senate ? check.
Sentiment: Strong Buy