Possible. I've been investing mostly in VIX short futures - EFTs - 2X-3X with some options. It's the older middle class that's seeking protection from dishonest BS. My philosophical views are similar to Wilder, but I also don't disagree with Ernie. From some careful study, Exelixis may have private funds investing and soon. If so, that would be a plus.
"Some patients do not respond for months ..."
There's support of that wt the Melanoma Research Foundation
melanoma dot o r g pd-1 response time questions
I was there earlier today reading patient comments and discussions per this matter.
I would include in your consideration, analysis on the FED quarterly meetings. A value of CBs to stock pricing is interest rates. This correlates to the issuer's credit rating. Always the goal of (cb arbs) is to keep the number of shares sold short equal to the number of shares that would be acquired to convert the bonds. So a natural process is for convert arbs to profit not only from coupons and short rebate, but changes up or down in stock price. If the the company is able to restructure debt by adding more debt (dilution) at reasonable terms, then I see that as a plus if the medical side works out within a few short years. Very distant cheap options could work, but I wouldn't buy until after the first quarter.
There is little doubt that they were told to exercise options by legal investment advisors in coordination with Exelixis LLC. MMM and the BOD have been able to line their own pockets, but this may come to an end if a JV is established. Apparently what is also holding up a JV is pro-rata percentage interest versus third party debt financing. If a determined heavy-weight partner is willing to partner, then everyone must accept pro-rata for the time being. Co-ventures should accept third party JV financing through non-recourse third party borrowing. The legal terms within a non-recourse agreement and change in existing lending agreements may be the most important words in the Exelixis dictionary this year.
I have spent too much time here today. I have traded this issue many times on the long side. I don't have intentions of trading this again until I can see adequate funds to pay off some of the timed due debt. Most retail have always traded this stock. Can you tell me that you never traded!! I'm just fed up with MMM and the BOD. They are doing well with free option grants and salary and MM has not bought shares on the open market in a long time.
If anyone has a fair amount invested in any company with debt, then it's wise to pay a few bucks for a credit analysis and score. Just use any of the large agencies to see Exelixis ratings. For free try - gurufocus exelixis - and marcoaxis exelixis.
When I saw the date and form stated in your post "form 10-K filed on February 22, 2011" I thought we had something here. The date that I wanted to see was February 22, 2010. This date was the final closure date of collaboration and development with BMS. A BMS relicense agreement with regulatory milestones would be just what we need knocking at the door. EXEL has for many years and continues to share important patents. With that labs often share too. It;s almost commonplace today for medical procedure patent sharing.
I tend to agree "with value of EXEL" but since July, most are traders with the exception of some large INTs. This board is a mess because of traders. Bashing to get the price lower to buy, referring to retail shorts when few exist, using multiple IDs, and thumbs. Long term holders, should be considering the ratios below with one eye and watching them closely if they plan to hold a core with a possible three year horizon. Traders could care less and most retail is just that.
working capital ratio (TTM)
working capital per revenue
total debt of equity
debt coverage (TTM)
price to tangible book ratio (PTB) is worthless at this point, only cash ratios and quick ratios placed against subjective TLD - time limitation debt.
There's very few retail shareholders shorts. A retail investor would have to be crazy to short a bio. The converts adjust positions all day and hedge funds trade in and out often with adjustments on a quarterly basis. Most of the bashers are either option players or want lower prices for a long equity position. Many long since earlier this year are still holding to get lower one year capital gains. Call options against/versus puts are always a concern. Sentiment, volume, market factors, lead to volatility, but EXEL sentiment with within it's self leads to either more volatility or upward momentum.
Sky, I took the time to respond nicely to two of your questions. You deleted those questions, taking my responses into the trash bin.
Debt ratios. The debt to cash ratio must be lower. For now, success will cost. The company will need to spend money to support marketing approvals. Expansion of research will cost more money. The company has little room for that until a cash flow cuts the time risks and future payable interest concerns. At this point most retail are trading.
Sky, The delta hedge converts control trading with constant adjusting of their large short hedge. They add premium by using option spreads. Their computers incorporate risk models on volume sentiment ratios. They'll stay PUT until cash is being placed into the bank.
I had talked about this back at some point. In December 2011, Exelixis granted Merck a full license to PI3k delta research for development that included XL499. Merck at that time committed to the first payment being $12 million (milestone). Total milestones payments for any or all usefull indications with development would be capped at $239 million if I remember right. Exelixis has factional entitlement rights per sales, plus royalties on emerging compounds. In return Exelixis also received developmental assistance/resources for CABO.
I sure that Exelixis "declined to comment." There a lot more to this story and to who's pockets are being lined - from patent discovery (lab) to corporate. Dig into Exelixis Patent Company LLC
"It is not an impediment of any appreciable magnitude." Yes. Make-Whole fundamental change - usually isn't a big deal unless a singular contractual agreement is contingent with penalty interest and fees. Good Faith and Will - would not expose Exelixis hereto pre-disclosure conditions of bad judgement. The loans and conditions are binding as set forth, period.
February 3, 2015
Title: 'Auxilium Announces Fundamental Change Relating to Outstanding Convertible Senior Notes'
Compare the Identure conditions - (Auxilium) $408.83 and $425.61
That prospectus and the zillion pages per the Silicon Bank, along with the SEC page on convertible bonds is in your face matter. In my opinion, the future will be determined by the Exelixis Patent Company LLC. Sixteen patients in the last three years. Last patent given was for based LXR modulators in May of this year. In whole, we are talking about 49 Trademarks and 132 Patent Grants. Six Exelixis Federal litigation filings is telling other researchers that collaboration as in "agreement" is our bank. Genentech as just one, is being forced to collaborate. If a buyout happens, it will be all about the drug platform, but more importantly, the patent and trademark stronghold.