The reason gold has been down since July is the run in the dollar. Last week dollar run started to roll over. In coming weeks it should revert back to July levels. Since Gold and commodities have tanked during this period, I expect them to rally as the dollar comes down. One could ask why dollar rally should end, and not just head fake. If you look at dollar charts going back 5 years, you will see that there have been several dollar run-ups. They typically go from beginning to complete reversion to mean in 6-9 months. Well, this one started in July, and now we are 3 months in. That is about typical for peak. There are no fundamental compelling reasons for dollar to be strong. US is still largest debtor nation. Money printing may stop at some point in the future, but what about all the un-backed paper that has already been printed that has debased the currency. The Chinese have been accumulating gold in anticipation of replacing the dollar with yuan as reserve currency. China hasn't acquired the debt US has, and is much more financially stable. GLD, SLV are the best protections against the coming dollar devaluation.
Strong dollar has caused gold and other commodities to fall since July. Historically, dollar spikes last only a few months from start to retracement. 6 to 9 mos is usual. This spike started in July, and it looks to me that it may have peaked in recent days. IMO it should be back to July levels by early 2015 or before. If the pattern holds, I believe ABX will move higher as the dollar strength erodes. We'll see.
The incompetent Obama government, whose spokespersons are liars, spinners. Running on ever increasing debt, which can only be covered by Federal Reserve printing more green Monopoly Money. They can't afford to raise rates; they couldn't pay the interest. How long before World rejects dollar as reserve currency? Hyperinflation is coming.
Lots of bearishness by gold pundits lately. IMO gold has been hit mostly by strong dollar. Strong dollar bouts have only lasted a few months at a time for past 5 years (UDN chart). It looks to me that dollar has peaked, and is beginning to slide back toward the mean. That would mean gold price has hit bottom and will start moving higher. That would also coincide with prevalence of bearish comments by gold pundits as a contrarian indicator. IMO we will see GLD at or above $122 this week. JMHO.
Absolutely right! The currency has been spoofed higher by the Fed and collaborating banks. I don't know why this was being done, but they have been shorting paper gold on the Comex and London where they don't have to back sales with physical collateral in an effort to artificially push dollar up vs. gold. This has been evidenced by gold routinely moving up in Asia after the Comex close. In Asian market the buyers are expecting physical delivery as opposed where as on Comex shorts are settled on paper.
There have been reports that the Fed through collaborating banks has been propping up the dollar vs. gold by shorting naked gold futures on the Comex and London. This depresses the gold price during the day. Then, in the Asian markets which do not allow selling without physical collateral and where delivery is expected, the price routinely rises from the Comex close. I don't understand the Fed's end game, unless this is to enable Central Banks to replenish their inventories at a lower cost.
There are no fundamental reasons for the strong dollar. It is only strong when compared to other weak fiat currencies. In reality inflation numbers are bogus when compared to essentials people actually purchase. US debt can never be repaid, and will be inflated away. Jobs numbers are improving, but mostly in lower pay categories that do little to improve tax revenues. Government spending continues to increase, and is only paid for by the Fed printing dollars to buy the Treasury debt. Dollar strength is ephemeral. Commodities are out of favor today, but only temporarily.
It is attached to a cable which is part of an overhead boom. The hook pierces your neck just to the right of your jaw, and the boom lifts you into the air. You hang helplessly, screaming with pain as you bleed and regret your purchase of ESV. And you die.
It is about this time in a horror flick that the unwitting soon to be victim realizes that something isn't quite right. This is just before the monster reveals itself and rips the victim's face off.
Wrong! Less refining capacity lowers crude oil price. To raise crude price bombing would be in oil fields, not refining capacity.
Near term you are correct, but longer term the excess livestock that are being added and fed on cheap grain will come to market, and that is when consumers will benefit.
Meat, poultry, egg prices should go lower on reduced feed costs. Corn processors will also benefit, but I doubt those lower costs will benefit consumers.
The current crop is just starting to be harvested. As crop is harvested in northern states additional downward pressure will be put on price. There will be record storage well into 2015 awaiting hopefully better prices. IMO the price may inch up some during 2015, but it will be below breakeven for growers until at least 2016 or 2017. This is going to be a long term washout for farmers and commodity speculators, including CORN longs.
His last name begins with "B", ends in "I", and Yahoo police think I'm cursing when I state his name, so they have blocked two of my attempts to post creds to his forecasting accuracy. He predicted the near perfect corn growing season and likely resultant bumper crop, and he did this in May or June. He also predicted the devastation of New Orleans by Katrina when the storm was days away from landfall.
There is already old corn stored from last season. More will be stored this season. You are right about less being planted next season, but likely the stored corn will keep price low for 2015. I doubt there will be any significant recovery in corn price until 2016 or 2017. JMHO