What a difference in 2 weeks since I posted this. Here in N. Illinois corn looks very healthy. Warmer, drier weather has really made a difference. We are starting to need some rain now, but that is forecast for tonight. I doubt price will get to last years lows, but IMO will certainly be weaker than I had anticipated 2 weeks ago.
My feeling is that the pullback today was just a correction after a long run-up. I believe the excuse was USDA keeping yield unchanged. The reduction in excellent crop acreage was stated, but no reduction in yield. Interesting. I believe we will see $5 corn by September, and even higher eoy and next year. JMHO.
To my thinking if the increase in oil supply to glut status was due to tight oil, then the oil price would have been gradually eroding as the tight oil supplies became more plentiful over at least last couple years. Instead, oil price was $90+ for several years until about July when it started to drop, and then after OPEC no cut announcement, it significantly dropped. IMO the oil glut results from significant, purposeful overproduction which must result in a period of underproduction which will be forthcoming.
The CEO departure has prompted speculation that there must be some really bad news coming. That may be so, but it also coincides with the news of Blackrock's stake. I'm curious if he was forced out or bought out by the major shareholders, and if this signals increases forthcoming in their stakes, possibly buy out of the company. Even with rigs being stacked and scraped, the RIG's assets are over 2X the stock price. This is the set-up that occurred with many of the buy-outs that Icahn and Blackrock have done in the past.