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Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

snugly60031 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 5:16 PM Member since: Oct 6, 2000
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  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Nov 21, 2014 5:16 PM Flag

    I don't believe it is rational. So, there must be something causing it other than normal market forces. It is costing some entity a lot to make the irrational move happen. So, the question is how long can they keep it up? My guess is that the dollar will have completely reversed to July levels by early next year. But that is just my guess. And if it is the Fed that is causing dollar strength anomaly through manipulation, it has a lot of firepower to continue playing its game. We'll see.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 24, 2014 9:30 PM Flag

    Gold and commodities have been down since the dollar has run-up in July. During the last 5 years dollar run-ups have lasted 6-9 months or less. This one began in July. If history prevails we will be back to prior levels by early next year at most. Gold should therefore be back to July levels by then. Now, why has the dollar been so strong since July. IMO it was primarily anticipation of end of QE and Fed tightening rates. How can Fed raise rates? Consider the amount of additional interest that would be required for US debt. Moreover, the Fed must consider the true state of the economy. Weakness has been shrouded by prior Fed action. Can the Fed and the Obama administration now reveal that US economy improvement has been a sham of their creation? I don't think so. Instead, I think we will see QE forever, and the dollar will return to the dustbin. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    China Deals

    by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 4:58 PM
    snugly60031 snugly60031 Oct 24, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Chile's big export is copper. China is the big copper buyer. China has the ability to use copper purchases as leverage. They can buy from Chile or somewhere else, and they can adjust the scale of their purchases up or down. A more cooperative Chile gets more copper purchases and vice versa.

  • Reply to

    China Deals

    by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 4:58 PM
    snugly60031 snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Well, China doesn't play by the same rules as Western nations when it comes down to something that is in its national interests.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    Stock price seems to have bottomed. Upward pressure on price is seen, even when oil price is down. Anything other than a terrible earnings report will cause this stock to move back into $40's.

  • Reply to

    China Deals

    by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 4:58 PM
    snugly60031 snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    I think Chilean officials would be intimidated by a Chinese company as the Chinese government would be understood as backing the company's play, since acquiring gold is in that government's interest as it moves toward gold backed yuan. China can exert pressures on Chile that Canada would not.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    It looks like downtrend has reversed, and TBT is trending higher. IMO lows for year have been put it, and stock moves up from here.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 23, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    Chinese gold producers are ready to do deals. IMO this was deal hinted by African Barrick CEO. I think it is also possible that a deal for a portion of Pascua-Lama could get that project producing and contributing to ABX bottom line and help pay down some debt.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 19, 2014 5:42 PM Flag

    The reason gold has been down since July is the run in the dollar. Last week dollar run started to roll over. In coming weeks it should revert back to July levels. Since Gold and commodities have tanked during this period, I expect them to rally as the dollar comes down. One could ask why dollar rally should end, and not just head fake. If you look at dollar charts going back 5 years, you will see that there have been several dollar run-ups. They typically go from beginning to complete reversion to mean in 6-9 months. Well, this one started in July, and now we are 3 months in. That is about typical for peak. There are no fundamental compelling reasons for dollar to be strong. US is still largest debtor nation. Money printing may stop at some point in the future, but what about all the un-backed paper that has already been printed that has debased the currency. The Chinese have been accumulating gold in anticipation of replacing the dollar with yuan as reserve currency. China hasn't acquired the debt US has, and is much more financially stable. GLD, SLV are the best protections against the coming dollar devaluation.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 15, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    Strong dollar has caused gold and other commodities to fall since July. Historically, dollar spikes last only a few months from start to retracement. 6 to 9 mos is usual. This spike started in July, and it looks to me that it may have peaked in recent days. IMO it should be back to July levels by early 2015 or before. If the pattern holds, I believe ABX will move higher as the dollar strength erodes. We'll see.

  • The incompetent Obama government, whose spokespersons are liars, spinners. Running on ever increasing debt, which can only be covered by Federal Reserve printing more green Monopoly Money. They can't afford to raise rates; they couldn't pay the interest. How long before World rejects dollar as reserve currency? Hyperinflation is coming.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 14, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    In my opinion GLD is now in an uptrend, and will see at least $122 this week.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 13, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Lots of bearishness by gold pundits lately. IMO gold has been hit mostly by strong dollar. Strong dollar bouts have only lasted a few months at a time for past 5 years (UDN chart). It looks to me that dollar has peaked, and is beginning to slide back toward the mean. That would mean gold price has hit bottom and will start moving higher. That would also coincide with prevalence of bearish comments by gold pundits as a contrarian indicator. IMO we will see GLD at or above $122 this week. JMHO.

  • Reply to

    US Dollar being Exposed for what it Really is

    by lwbd2014 Oct 8, 2014 2:09 PM
    snugly60031 snugly60031 Oct 8, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    Absolutely right! The currency has been spoofed higher by the Fed and collaborating banks. I don't know why this was being done, but they have been shorting paper gold on the Comex and London where they don't have to back sales with physical collateral in an effort to artificially push dollar up vs. gold. This has been evidenced by gold routinely moving up in Asia after the Comex close. In Asian market the buyers are expecting physical delivery as opposed where as on Comex shorts are settled on paper.

  • snugly60031 snugly60031 Oct 6, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    There have been reports that the Fed through collaborating banks has been propping up the dollar vs. gold by shorting naked gold futures on the Comex and London. This depresses the gold price during the day. Then, in the Asian markets which do not allow selling without physical collateral and where delivery is expected, the price routinely rises from the Comex close. I don't understand the Fed's end game, unless this is to enable Central Banks to replenish their inventories at a lower cost.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 5, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    There are no fundamental reasons for the strong dollar. It is only strong when compared to other weak fiat currencies. In reality inflation numbers are bogus when compared to essentials people actually purchase. US debt can never be repaid, and will be inflated away. Jobs numbers are improving, but mostly in lower pay categories that do little to improve tax revenues. Government spending continues to increase, and is only paid for by the Fed printing dollars to buy the Treasury debt. Dollar strength is ephemeral. Commodities are out of favor today, but only temporarily.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 5, 2014 8:34 PM Flag

    It is attached to a cable which is part of an overhead boom. The hook pierces your neck just to the right of your jaw, and the boom lifts you into the air. You hang helplessly, screaming with pain as you bleed and regret your purchase of ESV. And you die.

  • snugly60031 by snugly60031 Oct 5, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    It is about this time in a horror flick that the unwitting soon to be victim realizes that something isn't quite right. This is just before the monster reveals itself and rips the victim's face off.

  • It's being slowly inserted. It hurts like Hell. It won't stop hurting until you stop breathing.

  • Its surface is rough hewn, and it is being inserted slowly but steadily. It only stops hurting when you stop breathing.

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