What a difference in 2 weeks since I posted this. Here in N. Illinois corn looks very healthy. Warmer, drier weather has really made a difference. We are starting to need some rain now, but that is forecast for tonight. I doubt price will get to last years lows, but IMO will certainly be weaker than I had anticipated 2 weeks ago.
My feeling is that the pullback today was just a correction after a long run-up. I believe the excuse was USDA keeping yield unchanged. The reduction in excellent crop acreage was stated, but no reduction in yield. Interesting. I believe we will see $5 corn by September, and even higher eoy and next year. JMHO.
To my thinking if the increase in oil supply to glut status was due to tight oil, then the oil price would have been gradually eroding as the tight oil supplies became more plentiful over at least last couple years. Instead, oil price was $90+ for several years until about July when it started to drop, and then after OPEC no cut announcement, it significantly dropped. IMO the oil glut results from significant, purposeful overproduction which must result in a period of underproduction which will be forthcoming.
The CEO departure has prompted speculation that there must be some really bad news coming. That may be so, but it also coincides with the news of Blackrock's stake. I'm curious if he was forced out or bought out by the major shareholders, and if this signals increases forthcoming in their stakes, possibly buy out of the company. Even with rigs being stacked and scraped, the RIG's assets are over 2X the stock price. This is the set-up that occurred with many of the buy-outs that Icahn and Blackrock have done in the past.
I don't believe it is rational. So, there must be something causing it other than normal market forces. It is costing some entity a lot to make the irrational move happen. So, the question is how long can they keep it up? My guess is that the dollar will have completely reversed to July levels by early next year. But that is just my guess. And if it is the Fed that is causing dollar strength anomaly through manipulation, it has a lot of firepower to continue playing its game. We'll see.
Gold and commodities have been down since the dollar has run-up in July. During the last 5 years dollar run-ups have lasted 6-9 months or less. This one began in July. If history prevails we will be back to prior levels by early next year at most. Gold should therefore be back to July levels by then. Now, why has the dollar been so strong since July. IMO it was primarily anticipation of end of QE and Fed tightening rates. How can Fed raise rates? Consider the amount of additional interest that would be required for US debt. Moreover, the Fed must consider the true state of the economy. Weakness has been shrouded by prior Fed action. Can the Fed and the Obama administration now reveal that US economy improvement has been a sham of their creation? I don't think so. Instead, I think we will see QE forever, and the dollar will return to the dustbin. JMHO.
Chile's big export is copper. China is the big copper buyer. China has the ability to use copper purchases as leverage. They can buy from Chile or somewhere else, and they can adjust the scale of their purchases up or down. A more cooperative Chile gets more copper purchases and vice versa.
Stock price seems to have bottomed. Upward pressure on price is seen, even when oil price is down. Anything other than a terrible earnings report will cause this stock to move back into $40's.
I think Chilean officials would be intimidated by a Chinese company as the Chinese government would be understood as backing the company's play, since acquiring gold is in that government's interest as it moves toward gold backed yuan. China can exert pressures on Chile that Canada would not.
Chinese gold producers are ready to do deals. IMO this was deal hinted by African Barrick CEO. I think it is also possible that a deal for a portion of Pascua-Lama could get that project producing and contributing to ABX bottom line and help pay down some debt.
The reason gold has been down since July is the run in the dollar. Last week dollar run started to roll over. In coming weeks it should revert back to July levels. Since Gold and commodities have tanked during this period, I expect them to rally as the dollar comes down. One could ask why dollar rally should end, and not just head fake. If you look at dollar charts going back 5 years, you will see that there have been several dollar run-ups. They typically go from beginning to complete reversion to mean in 6-9 months. Well, this one started in July, and now we are 3 months in. That is about typical for peak. There are no fundamental compelling reasons for dollar to be strong. US is still largest debtor nation. Money printing may stop at some point in the future, but what about all the un-backed paper that has already been printed that has debased the currency. The Chinese have been accumulating gold in anticipation of replacing the dollar with yuan as reserve currency. China hasn't acquired the debt US has, and is much more financially stable. GLD, SLV are the best protections against the coming dollar devaluation.
Strong dollar has caused gold and other commodities to fall since July. Historically, dollar spikes last only a few months from start to retracement. 6 to 9 mos is usual. This spike started in July, and it looks to me that it may have peaked in recent days. IMO it should be back to July levels by early 2015 or before. If the pattern holds, I believe ABX will move higher as the dollar strength erodes. We'll see.
The incompetent Obama government, whose spokespersons are liars, spinners. Running on ever increasing debt, which can only be covered by Federal Reserve printing more green Monopoly Money. They can't afford to raise rates; they couldn't pay the interest. How long before World rejects dollar as reserve currency? Hyperinflation is coming.
Lots of bearishness by gold pundits lately. IMO gold has been hit mostly by strong dollar. Strong dollar bouts have only lasted a few months at a time for past 5 years (UDN chart). It looks to me that dollar has peaked, and is beginning to slide back toward the mean. That would mean gold price has hit bottom and will start moving higher. That would also coincide with prevalence of bearish comments by gold pundits as a contrarian indicator. IMO we will see GLD at or above $122 this week. JMHO.
Absolutely right! The currency has been spoofed higher by the Fed and collaborating banks. I don't know why this was being done, but they have been shorting paper gold on the Comex and London where they don't have to back sales with physical collateral in an effort to artificially push dollar up vs. gold. This has been evidenced by gold routinely moving up in Asia after the Comex close. In Asian market the buyers are expecting physical delivery as opposed where as on Comex shorts are settled on paper.
There have been reports that the Fed through collaborating banks has been propping up the dollar vs. gold by shorting naked gold futures on the Comex and London. This depresses the gold price during the day. Then, in the Asian markets which do not allow selling without physical collateral and where delivery is expected, the price routinely rises from the Comex close. I don't understand the Fed's end game, unless this is to enable Central Banks to replenish their inventories at a lower cost.