First let me say,,, I hope you have a great Thanksgiving.
Next, I think we are really close on how we see things. You believe the company has no short interest as whoever holds the current short position now has it hedged on the long side.
I disagree with who holds what but agree, there is no real short interest or potential in APRI at least for the short run.
Your depiction of management's relationship with Aspire is not supported by the facts on file with the SEC. Is it possible that the two parties have an unspoken agenda? Of course I would accept that as possible but my thesis includes that Aspire is populated by, in your words, 'wickedly smart people". Being smart they have performed DD at an incredible level and reached a conclusion that they were comfortable on the Long side as evidenced by their 13G filing. I'm in no position to out think their ability to investigate all aspects of APRI's product pipeline as well as understand their future cash needs.
I believe each of APRI's products holds value and I'm supportive of each. Vitaros is doing better than anyone expected and the evidence of this is Sandoz continuing to launch small markets like Belgium at a cost of $500k upfront while Sandoz has had initial sales and uptake data in Germany on which to base their decision to move forward.
RayVa, is cheap, and offers both a non-US out license potential while potentially giving APRI a product they could market in the US on their own. Their early marketing moves for this have been smart.
Finally Fispemifene. This product will be more rewarding to shareholders than anyone can imagine, and could lead to APRI being taken out by a large pharma.
So if I'm right our big disagreement is finding the absolute bottom to buy. My last purchase was $1.37 and I'm very comfortable there and ready to buy 50k more if you prove correct. But I don't think we see that. We are far more likely IMO to catch a reset bid in the near term.
I'm sure they won't sell them shares either... Not that guys on Wacker are all that tough... They're not.
They won't do it because as I've pointed out they can wait around for 22 months waiting for a higher PPS.
I have no proof, other than his absence listed as a major holder but I'm of the opinion that the PPS slide was the result of Demaj divesting his stock.
Regardless, what Aspire will or will not do with any future stock they receive via the agreement is an unknown. And without picking a fight I would point out your continued badgering for weeks and weeks that Aspire was a penny flipper selling into every share they received has proven via the SEC 13G wrong by a mile.
So again your opinion has been wrong wrong wrong wrong... :)
Lastly, you continue to say what Aspire will decide with regards to when and what they are doing via the purchase of future stock from APRI... I don't know if you have a mental block or an ability to ignore facts like a right wing Christian Conservative working for an oil company looking at global warming data, but the fact is Aspire's hands are tied to buying whenever APRI says so... PERIOD.
Will Aspire be able to sell that back into the market at a profit? Maybe,,, maybe not... If for instance APRI hit the pay window today for $19 million there is no way Aspire could dump it back into the market as the lack of volume would crush the PPS. In other words, Aspire would be S.T.U.C.K!!!
Now don't ask me why Aspire agreed to all this... It's mind blowing... But don't try to tell me something different than I can read in black and white either.
So you keep saying APRI will offer a secondary, but you ignore some basic facts, so answer this.
Why would APRI, offer a secondary at discounted prices when they can access $19 million at market prices anytime over the next 22 months?
Why would Aspire be happy to see another banker get a discount while they hold their 5% of the company?
How would management explain to the street, and the common shareholders such an outrageous move?
They will NOT do that... That's what I'm telling you...
With $16 million in cash, and $19 million at the pay window at market, un-discounted, no warrant shares available from Aspire who owns 5% of the company there is IMO ZERO chance of Roth, Lazzard or anyone else getting in on the action.... unless,,,, They were to offer a premium that both management and Aspire liked, like say $2.08 per share. I find that to be highly unlikely but think it thru a minute.
If the company is truly on new footing which we agree it is, and we believe between continued launches of Vitaros, Fispemifene's phase 2b and RayVa you believe much higher PPS is coming how do you get your hand on say 2 to 5 million shares without blowing up the PPS?
So I DO NOT BELIEVE that's going to happen, I simply see it as more logical than a secondary that takes the PPS under a buck for no reason.
All I know is that if APRI advances Fispemifene with the successful 2b then the street is going to be buying into APRI like Bill Cosby buying truck loads of benzodiazepine.
Let me ask you a question about teaching. When you were working with a student did you often hand out an "A" grade for an assignment 3/4s complete?
You don't know what the "F" drug is or care? Fispemifene is no joking matter. The market for Testosterone Replacement Therapy is currently $2.5 Billion in the US. That number will continue to rise as the population ages, but more importantly as the therapies offered become safer, easier and more targeted.
Right now there is a large segment of men who simply accept declining energy and libido as part of the aging process because the introduction of "artificial T" is scary.
The SERM of Fispemifene, and it's bio-equivalent from RPRX will offer an alternative to artificial T. Second to market Fispemifene will be the first SERM made specifically for the male body.
You should take the time to do some homework on it. This is why the debt was easy to get and why the daddy warbucks shareholders wanted debt used over dilution.
Lastly... Put down the crack pipe... There will be no 15 million share dilution anytime soon.
Bicster, the truth is I like you... I enjoy thinking... I enjoy imagination and the back and fourth that produces great investment ideas.
So please keep posting, and I'll keep reading and thinking. I'm done on this thread. Blame Yahoo, once they get long it's a pain to read them.
See you on the next thread.
Dude,,, That's where you are... An imaginary world contrary to all the SEC filings on the subject... A smoke filled backroom of imagination where APRI management yeilds to criminal activity to protect some future funding prospect in 2016 or beyond?
Can you even hear yourself?
Take a break...
Wrong again Bic... Aspire has ZERO ability to request shares from APRI... The terms of the agreement give APRI the sole ability to direct the time and amount of shares Aspire is now obligated to purchase...
Who's grasping at straws exactly?
Bic you are in need of medication. First of all it certainly would be illegal for Aspire submit an SEC filing stating they would not hedge while hiding a 2.3 million share short position.
Next the total number of shares short in APRI on 10-15-14 was less than 2.3 million shares. So according to you Aspire held more than 100% of all short shares in APRI? Are you drunk?
Yes, I laughed... I really did, as I read AF's article this AM.... And I shook my head thinking about any poor fools holding that dog pile. GALE will be sub $1 soon...
And don't try to compare the slimy "net short" deal from Lincoln with APRI's deal with Aspire. Everyone can see Lincoln will stay a single share more on the long side as they pocket both directions while killing the common in the process all so GALE's filthy management can suck the marrow from the bone of the decaying carcass.
Aspire and APRI's deal does not allow such behavior.
Aspire Capital has agreed that neither it nor any of its agents, representatives and affiliates shall engage in any direct or indirect short-selling or hedging of our Common Stock during any time prior to the termination of the Purchase Agreement.
Furthermore there is a 13G on file that Aspire now "HOLDS" every share they have purchased.
These are facts. And yes I laugh every tick down on GALE.
Staws? Grasping? What are you talking about?
I quoted the terms exactly... You can feel free to read them anyway you like. You can do it in less time than it takes to ride the blue line from Lincoln Park to O'Hare.
There is a 13G on file that backs up exactly what APRI and Aspires deal is.
Facts only Bic...
Hey Bic, don't know about Court but I saw it and started laughing.
Did you catch the difference between Lincoln Park's Gale and Aspires APRI deals?
Lincoln Park is restricted from having a "net short" position on GALE.
While Aspires deal with APRI is : Aspire Capital has agreed that neither it nor any of its agents, representatives and affiliates shall not engage in any direct or indirect short-selling or hedging of our Common Stock during any time prior to the termination of the Purchase Agreement.
Don't bother adding to evidence of ignorance.
The scenario as you have begun to lay out would be illegal and contrary to SEC filings on the subject.
Look, I'm sorry you are so "bothered" but it's clear the root of your issue is that you only view APRI as a vehicle of finance maneuvers and not as a company. This oversight in your analysis is going to cost you money if not corrected.
Your track record, "Vitaros will never launch", " the manufacturing process and costs will doom them", "Aspire is a pickpocket penny flipper" WRONG. All and always wrong.
Maybe it's time you did more listening rather than talking.
Bicster, that better be the booze talking. :)
This stock is not going under a dollar. I'm not even convinced we will see $1.30 again.
Bicster, at some point you need to come to grips with reality. There is no need for APRI to include anyone other than Aspire in any capital raise between now and the end of 2015.
Now shut up,and buy some stock. Don't be a Putz.
I'll bet in a fight Cox would knock you silly. Bwahahahaha
The mechanics of moving the PPS can not be ignored.
It seems to me that there is more to the Aspire story than meets the eye on the mechanics. I think it's a very safe assumption the DD performed by Aspire was intensive and would include insight into the early satisfaction of Vitaros by patients and full understanding and projections on sales ramps.
I would think the deal would have had unwritten requirements that we have seen materialize as well. Like hiring IR firms and attending conferences.
Aspire is many things but they are not Santa... They fully expect a return. And they have the voting power to make sure everything moves the way they want.
And RayVa will be a little money make too, but of course the big deal will eventually be Fispemifene.
Stay cautious.. I'll be interested if you make the switch to Bull... But I'll still post you were wrong on Dec 11th.. :)