I would expect that it's happened at least once if the data was out of the ballpark but it's not typical to have P2 data move the stock.
You do have at least one thing right. Many longs here trade on emotion rather than analysis. This is a perfect example and I'm sure several added to their positions on Monday only to see it drop today. It's just the wrong time to buy.
I guess what I'm suggesting is that they could be deferring the results to hammer out a deal of some sort before a public announcement. That’s why I’m comfortable with a buy in price lower than $3.51 without knowing the results of METEOR and assumed bad. Of course, I expect good results from METEOR.
Roche made a deal for Genetech before a trial finished and the price got hammered after the news release of the failure of the trial. Roche might be a bit trigger shy when big trials results are at bay.
It does make me wonder what they're doing floating around with 3/4 year cash (& equivalents) in hand with no financing effort (of public knowledge).
They are planning something. To get down this far is putting them in a weaker position to sell if they don't have alternative financing lined up.
The OS data showed a significant increase. I would expect some doctors will be pressured into the treatment by patients if the doctors aren't yet convinced. The thing is that I'm not familiar with the OS of other drugs in this indication yet, so I really don't know how good of a bump it really is.
Are you familiar with previous "pre-approvals" for use along side with finishing P3 trial and what the FDA used as criteria?
I was thinking of the erlotinib combo announcement of the phase 2 OS survival. It seemed the PFS was a marginal move but the OS was a healthy bump.
Though, I'm not up to date on the NSCLC treatments. I had peaked into it and had hopes for Cabo since it seemed to be doing well but now that we're looking at P3, I'm more interested.
So, what are the chances of a fastrack on the Combo treatment for NSCLC with a short Phase 3? I'll have to get myself up to speed on the NSCLC numbers.
I'm surprised that no one has said they might be in negotiations for selling the company based on mRCC readout.
This news release is a good way to start the morning.
Immunotherapy is in it's infancy. I think that combo therapies will be how they grain traction. I think you can count the number approved therapies on one hand. Dendrion was one of them and look what happened. It worked but it was too expensive to compete with cheaper more conventional therapies.
Otherwise, it's failure after failure until there has been enough literature around a specific method/target to understand the problems well enough to get a drug approved.
I personally have my doubts about how effective some immuntherapies can be. Once you're body is in full resistance mode with viral antigens for example, it'll become more difficult to get the virus to the cell. That's why melanoma is a logical target because you can inject the virus directly into the cells. I suspect they might have to find a way to flush the antibodies from the cells prior to treatment. (If I were a shorting man, I would short the companies with the newest treatments that don't have failures in the area yet.)
In combinations, it might gain use earlier than alone.