They offered more than a normal deal. That's for sure. I think it may have been a place holder for them to have first consideration for a buyout until they find out what happens in CELESTIAL.
Without a buyout offer, everything is built in. If CELESTIAL fail, you can see this go under $3. I have $2.70 to $2.86 without Celestial. A buyout might be over $10. Even with Celestial, it's worth no more than $4.30. I won't buy above $3 without CELESTIAL results.
And then they purchased another program and sold it all to Amgen. They had many many fewer shares at the time too which gave a nice price.
"...MDVN was filing and waiting for approval in CRPC,...."
Careful what you say.
Proprotionally 375M market vs. a 9.5B market, 227M outstanding shares vs. 167M ourstanding shares.................... That makes $50 of MDVN pps equal to a $1.39 pps for Exel.
They're looking for more cash to continue trials and do the initial manufacturing. Dilution may be on the table here.
The loss from manufacturing cabo might be more than you think; it'll take a little time for that up front cost to be pushed aside by the income.
Staying independent? Assuming they buy a program, it'll take another 10 years to get another drug through the clinic at best.
If they restart a pipeline of their own, they need 5-10 years to generate a lead and get all the preclinical data needed for trials. Absolute minimum is 15 years but likely to be more.
If they restart their pipeline and it looks like they're not going to sell, i'm definitely out.
Have they ever said or suggest that they intend to continue building their pipeline?
I brought that up yesterday. It seems to me, the deal as is leaves only Ipsen as the potential purchaser. They do have a p2 duel therapy trial with Sunitinib so they might have a big interest in Cabo.
With that said, I'm hoping this deal is a place holder for them to find out what happens in CELESTIAL before any final deal is inked.
I'd like to get others thoughts on this:
The deal with Ipsen does not seem like they're setting up to sell the company to me and that's what I've been pining for.
Ipsen has other drugs and is in trials with duel therapies with companies like Pfizer in a P2 duel treatment with Sunitinib; so I can see how they would like to have Cabo in the portfolio.
Was this the European partner for Cabo to start with? The reason I feel like it's trending away from selling the company, it's more broadly spreading the contracts.
Sure a buyer can pick up the contracts but it limits the pps for the buyer which would likely be an international company that wouldn't want Ipsen doing something they can do themselves like manufacturing and distribution which means they'd have to buy out the contract as well.
This leaves Ipsen as the only potential buyer. Is this contract simply a place holder until CELESTIAL readout or is EXEL going to use this money to jumpstart research or buy early research? If that latter is the case, this is a much longer investment than I intended.
Is my concern valid?
Have you ever considered getting an education and a real job? Of all the people here you are very indifferently consistent and methodical like you get paid to post this drivel.
Someone dumped a lot of shares at Wednesday close. They know that they can get the shares back cheaper after the earnings. It's a trading style that works. The issue is that it's enough shares to affect the stock. I have cash on hand but I'm not increasing my position until after earnings if at all.