Don't bet the farm on EXEL. IMO, they have $5 in the pocket. $25 on a good day.
Breast cancer is huge. Multibillion off the top. EXEL has to piecemeal a Billion let alone a few billion. Though, with their various trials, they could but it would not be overnight.
Though, it's possible that a short squeeze shoots us past a rational realm. It might be worth to sell and repurchase after the volume drops.
It all happened from 3:20 to 4:00 with an potentially unrelated block at 2:49.
I'm suspicious of automated trading picking a trend here. It was coming to the 4th day closing positive.
He went long with the report of meeting primary endpoint and intention to file.
I can't believe that she wants to pay interest to the banks that maintain excess reserves!
There will be a loud sucking sounds as all the capital dries up in this country as the banks simply put their money in reserve to get a share of the newly printed currency that'll never see the light of day.
I think that "news" organizations such has the Montley Fool should be subject to SEC rules and guidelines if they "own" positions in what they're covering or analyzing.
I for one was curious as to the structure of peoples thoughts on it. It started with an article saying Roche should buy EXEL by an author who I felt lacked a story with substance.
However just as a CEO would have a 1-2 year, 5 year, and 10 year plan based on possible outcomes of each program, deal, contract, and attempt at securing financing, an investor should have the options on the table of possible outcomes.
If someone has been shorting the stock and they become aware that there may be talk of buyout based on good news, they might want to move to a long position. A person trading on the gaps may take a longer position if they think they might not be able to buy lower if they sell at a given time they've become accustomed to.
If the CEO is worth their salt, that option has been hashed out and they have a number for consideration or not if they would entertain an offer. Regardless of what I think, you think or the nut job that sees a conspiratorial pump and dump in asking the question, investors have the right to question the avenues that may influence their investment decision.
The biggest key to figuring out the nut jobs here is finding the ones that believe what you say on this forum influences the ticker price.
I'm certainly not basing my ego on thumbs down but they do create a curiosity at times. In this case, my thinking was a bit too compartmentalized. I needed to be less detail oriented and look at a larger picture.
Ah! My mind was not picking up on simply taking on the role of Exelixis and maintaining the contracts, mostly because buying a half deal is worth considerably less but it would add a great deal to a purchase price.
Since I got thumbed down the last time I pointed out the partnerships, I'd like an answer to a question.
In your minds, how would a buyout work for Roche given that Exelixis has deals with Sanofi, Daiichi-Sankyo, Bristol-Myers Squibb, & Merck?
"The primary endpoint was safety of the drug combination and to identify dose-limiting toxic effects and the maximum tolerated dose. Efficacy was a key secondary endpoint. All patients treated with vemurafenib and cobimetinib were included in safety and efficacy analyses (intention-to-treat)."
" Confirmed objective responses were recorded in ten (15%) of 66 patients who had recently progressed on vemurafenib, with a median progression-free survival of 2·8 months (95% CI 2·6-3·4). Confirmed objective responses were noted in 55 (87%) of 63 patients who had never received a BRAF inhibitor, including six (10%) who had a complete response; median progression-free survival was 13·7 months (95% CI 10·1-17·5). INTERPRETATION: The combination of vemurafenib and cobimetinib was safe and tolerable when administered at the respective maximum tolerated doses. The combination has promising antitumour activity and further clinical development is warranted in patients with advanced BRAF(V600)-mutated melanoma, particularly in those who have never received a BRAF inhibitor; confirmatory clinical testing is ongoing."
What is your definition of small pharma? Exelixis grew fairly large at on point. They have a lot of empty buildings now. No one in "small pharma" really understood how they could pull off what they did financially. Most "small pharma" remain in one building smaller than one of their buildings and often don't occupy the whole space. I know of one that made 10s of million selling their business after operating out of a space equal to a large house. There have easily been better deals. For those that claim mismanagement, I have to agree but they that doesn't mean they can't still win. Because of that, I question the future decisions. They did bank a lot of money in infrastructure which may have been to secure money for the class A investor, who knows...
So, with a potential $450M US market and 50% of profits from the first $200M sales. decreasing to 30% of profits to $400M sales (30% for the remaining $50M). Just looking at sales they're entitled to the profits of $195M.
As pointed out by another posted the average cost of getting a drug to the market is around $1B ($700-$900M). A healthy % of that was probably paid by Roche and they'll want that money back. The cost of goods production may be higher than average. It looks like a simple molecule to make but has 3 fluoros and 2 chiral centers but only one is resolved.
Are these US populations or world numbers?
We just got the breakdown of the deal for cobi. What is the deal for cabo? Is it similar to Cobi? 50% US sales up to X amount, etc.
I'm a bit disappointed about the sales agreement. They're looking at about $450M in US and they only secured 50% of the first $200M and down to 30% by the expected sales in US. What about Europe?
Don't get me wrong, $175M / year income could carry a modest research team indefinitely to develop new drugs as well as pay for clinical trials on their own. If it's approved, they have a future if they chose and don't sell themselves off.
Approval secures our investment and combined with future success, it's a potential gold mine.