Nope. EXEL has way more shares than ONYX did. I've pointed this out many times and I'll do it again:
Onyx sold for $125 with only about 35M shares; so, just under $4.4B Let's say EXEL had the equivalent offer which is possible but I'd say the top side of a deal, it would be 35/185 time $125 which is only about $19.25 a share.
I'm sure a lot of the current cost is from manufacturing the drug and clinical trials that they're the sponsors of.
Ehhh.... $240 million is a huge sum to be spending with that many employees. They need posiitive revenue soon.
I've voting it opens slightly down and perhaps climb a bit in afternoon trading, maybe $4.50. All a guess but I don't expect any of the big boys to be excited about the numbers. Any quick movements will be from continued revenue increases progressively getting to levels above expenses. The shorts have plenty of time still.
Volitinib could replace cabo. I think that is the intent of that study.
FYI, drug resistance to small molecules inhibition of MET is showing up with via Pim protein kinases if nsclc and gcc.
Know any company working on the Pim pathway?
So it's basic chart analysis not based on company dynamics. They're much more accurate if you use company specific analytics with them.
That is messed up. They're not even out of P2. Most of the trials are P1.
There is something funny going on with that. Either insider leak or a serious gamble. So, what happened in P1?
The patients ranged in age from 44-81, with a median age of 62 years. As is normal in phase I trials, they received escalating doses of Rova-T once every three weeks until toxicity reached a point at which the increase in dose needed to be stopped. The drug was designed to bind to DLL3 (delta like protein 3), a protein that is highly expressed in approximately 70% of SCLCs.
“Of the 48 tumour samples we were able to analyse, 33 were positive for DLL3. Among the 29 DLL3+ patients we could treat at the maximum tolerated dose of Rova-T, ten (34%) had a partial response and nine (31%) had disease stabilisation. The duration of response among these patients was more than 178 days, with no cases of disease progression,” Dr Pietanza will say.
Such a response out of P1 is not common....
Found what I was remembering:
"SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 28, 2016-- Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL) today announced the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has accepted for review the Marketing Authorization Application (MAA) for cabozantinib as a treatment for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who have received one prior therapy. The completion of the MAA validation process confirms that the submission is sufficient to permit a substantive review for marketing authorization in the European Union.
The EMA’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) previously granted accelerated assessment to cabozantinib for advanced RCC. As a result, the MAA will be eligible for a 150-day review, versus the standard 210 days (excluding clock stops when information is requested by CHMP). "
150 day review following Jan. 28.
That actually comes out to June 26, 2016.
I seem to recall calculating it to be end of June. Their rules are a number of days after acceptance of the application. I don't recall the exact numbers but end of June is stuck in my mind ( June 27? ).
Onyx sold for $125 with only about 35M shares; so, just under $4.4B Let's say EXEL had the equivalent offer which is possible but I'd say the top side of a deal, it would be 35/185 time $125 which is only about $19.25. I'd take it but without a buyout and CELESTIAL, I have it at $2.67 as a safe buy. Once money is rolling in and debt is not an issue, 4+ valuation is normal which puts it near $11.
So with the debt, it's right were it should be; but we're now in a growing position which is where we ant to be.
Aside from what others mentioned, they said they were ready to distribute on Apr. 1 which means they should see immediate sales. They can do this because of the priority status the approval had, they could get the label approved in tandem instead of after approval which makes it faster.
Though, I think approval was already priced in. What will move this is a buyout or positive CELESTIAL.
To follow up, I'd used some of the same ideas for this stock but this one was riskier because I could not say100% that they'd succeed. However, my industry knowledge allowed me to look at the science behind Cabo and make me confident to risk it. For the most part, my buy in price was under $3 and that's how I valued it's potential. People here don't like the values, I put on it but I want to protect my money while making money and this stock gave ample opportunity to buy under $3 and as low as $1.25.
You have be able to draw you lines in the sand and not regret your decision to have not bought or having sold before the peak. If you can learn were the big boys are valuing stocks and get in before and sell at that value, you're golden. You could have always made more but only in hindsight. If you made money, you did well.
Many years ago, I read a book that helped me. In fact, I just passed a copy to a friend who was interested. It's called "What Works on Wall Street" by James O'Shaughnessy.
I read it slowly and understood every graph and chart in the book. He's since expanded it and added a lot of information. It's not everything but I applied some of the information to identify potentially under valued stocks.
I scanned every ticker for the right metrics, and then went through the set manually to exclude ones with excessive debt, very low volumes, etc.. Some times, you find just one but ideally, you get 7-10 choices. I established a small position in each one that had potential to grow. I checked in every 3-4 weeks to see how each was doing. If it trended down, I moved some out of that. If one trended up, I increased my position. Eventually and hopefully, you may have only 3 positions which are growing.
The idea behind it is that you can't predict which one will take off but you're looking for that leading edge of an up trend. A couple stellar examples, I was able to enter stocks at $6 and sell at $24 because I found the ones that were showing growth and was able to enter early before the computer algorithms and fat cats picked up on the trend and ran it up very quickly. I had valued one at $22 and sold it at $24 while buying position from $6-$14. It ran to $40 and I could have had more but a couple weeks later it crashed back to $22 and bounced around $22-$24.
This takes active attention which I don't do as much any more but it has worked for me fairly well. I consider it value investing. I'd lose my shorts if I tried to day trade plus, you get long term investment tax over short term and can make just as much if you have the nerves and patience.