The last 2 splits were done at prices below where GILD is now.
A lower price makes it easier to award stock options, easier for investors to hedge with options, but also makes it easier for hi vol swings.
On the other hand, many biotech stocks are now well over 100 without splitting, and that was the case for only REGN and BIIB at the last split.
For me, the evidence says they will split the stock, just based on what has happened in the past. I give it a 60% chance.
I have had a hard time with this sell off, I was so confident with ANIP that I didn't sell a share. Same for a couple of my holdings, and I got creamed.
But I thot ANIP was pretty strong, and would not sell off so badly. So, at under 31 today, I added. In the long run, their execution will be rewarded (imo...), and ANIP will see 40 this yr.
I sold yesterday, right after the Yellin comment. It's another case of the govt stepping into things that are none of their business. I expect this will be old news in a week or less, but for now, biotechs/small pharms are getting creamed.
But, I will get back in...I was lucky with the sale, but i held a lot of others, and it really stinkd that the govt has something to say about everything, but can't do a thing right on their own.
My frustration is that it now seems that the govt will intervene into drug and biotech stocks at will. Look at LCI today, and of course, the many comments by Yellin and Congressmen about drug pricing.
I also have KERX, a similar play to AMPE. KERX has been hit just as hard, in % terms, in this selling.
I don't expect the govt interventions to end, in fact, I expect them to accelerate. So I will hold my AMPE, but I won't hold it forever, I'm out when I get back to green (I had sold at 8.50, and re-bought at 7.90...).
GL, just wanted to vent my frustration with the govt's interventions, and my fear that it is just beginning.
GL, and I would re-load some ENTA too, but also consider the many other choices. I have held this for a while (GILD is my largest holding, so ENTA was a hedge against the ABBV entry into the HCV space), and I can't accurately determine what the earnings will be after the progress payments.
All the stories that have been posted sound like a load of confusion, esp about what % ENTA gets, and of what number. Most importantly, what % of the mkt will ABBV capture, at what price.
So, for me, less exposure to ENTA is better. ANIP is up near a buck from my entry, AMPE, the mose risky, is off a dime. I also added to my AKRX position.
btw, the 2 I added to are ANIP and AMPE, in terms of what they do, they are opposites, ANIP is coser to a contract mfg for other pharm companies, AMPE has a new drug that isn't approved yet, but has news coming in 45-60 days.
jmo, but sell offs in today's markets are much faster and sharper than in years past. This is solely due to the SEC not enforcing the naked shorting rules. So the HFs and the HFTs short things ugly, scare way the buyers, then cover when they have big profits.
I don't think there's a hurry to get back in (I also sold some above 43), but I do think today's prices are getting close to a bottom.
Plus, note how well GILD has held up. Again, jmo, I did add to 2 of my biotech positions today, but I was early.
MDWD apparently participated in the Jeffries H/C conf a couple weeks ago. Usually, companies post their presentations from these conferences on their websites the day of the conference Usually, these presentations have alot of useful info in them, if they didn't, why go?
I sent an email to their IR firm, asking them to post that presentation on the website. let's see what happens, and what is in the presentation.
PLUG up the same %, people starting to realize that mass mkt electric cars with batteries are as far away as FC cars, imo.
Don't sell any FC stocks...
Pls give me your thots about future royalty pmnts. In the 12 months from this Q, ENTA will get about $195M of "upfront" pmnts from ABBV. That is pretty much agreed, and pretty much assured.
Does anyone have a good idea of what their ongoing royalty pmnts could be? Any idea of what rev ABBV expects, and what the % would be for ENTA? Is it very complex, like different % for different geos, or different rev levels? Or very simple, like a % for the first 500M, and a lower % for the next 500M, etc?
What I would really like to know is if they could be getting $150M, $200M or whatever on an annual basis, when ABBV gets up and running.
From a strictly financial perspective, ENTA has a current mkt cap of $700M, and if their future flows from ABBV are going to be $150M/yr, the stock shd be much higher. The current price means that investors are only confident with a much lower number.
Not quite what I expected, the rise in price is less, and the volume is anemic. I thot that the vol would be 2x what it is.
Small caps, low vol, it is hard to properly anticipate market reactions in such thinly trade stocks.
I thot I was the only NSTG shareholder who looked at this MB!!
On the recent drop to the 12s, I added a lot of shrs. That drop came when there was some iffy news, the entire small cap sector was getting hammered, and the very low vol small caps, like NSTG, took the worst beating.
As it has moved up, I did some trading in and out, but kept my "doubled up" position. It's not a lot of shrs, the vol is too low to support a lot of shrs being traded.
Now I am glad I did. While I expect a pop today, I also expect some shareholders to take that pop as a chance to sell. With NSTG's low volume, there could be a nice pop, I hope!
What the CELG deal is, is a signal that NSTG is a company that will succeed for the next few years. As I have said before, I see this as a $25 stock this yr, and maybe 35 in 2015. Regardless of today's price movement, we shd hold.
My 2 cents on a takeover. I don't like it.
I know the traders love it. But, as an investor, it gives us increased ST value and gives the LT value to others.
Just a example. GILD bought Pharmasset a few yrs ago for about $10B, and that was a big premium. For that, they got Solvadi.
If you were a Pharmasset shareholder, you got that fast money, but if Pharmasset were still a public company, that $10B would be closer to $50B today (est rev this yr from Solvadi of $9B).
There are lots of examples like this. What a buyout does to shareholders is steal LT value, and cause us to search for the next opportunity, and if we choose well, that value will also be stolen away at some point.
I know there's no stopping the buyouts, but with some companies, you just hope they resist.
I am a LT ALXN shareholder, I am very glad they resisted that takeover last summer. I hope to be able to say the same for NPSP.
Big rally since your post, and RARE is back to a mkt cap of $1.1B.
At $82/sh, the mkt cap would be $2.4B.
Even with a rich pipeline, will they have product revenue in 2015? I doubt it. So you want to tell us that a company that might not have any rev for the nest 18-24 months is worth $2.4B??
So here's my question, what is the methodology for setting a PT of $82/sh?? Really, I want to know!!
So many hi PT's no underlying analysis. Just numbers pulled out of the air.
2 thots, one, MDXG is still way undervalued, but all small caps are out of favor.
two, don't think it's clearly great to be a rep, if things are so good, and your pipeline is not, you are on the hot seat. I managed large sales teams in hi growth areas, and we were merciless with those who weren't filling it up all the time. Lots of new reps at MDXG, if they all do well, it would be great, but my experience is that some percent just don't get it going. The increased guidance seems to say that MDXG now thinks that many will get it going. That is the great news!
My PT is 7.50 in 90 days, and 9 this yr, maybe 10 in Q1 2015. Hopefully higher, but I have become very conservative with MDXG.
yeah, don't invest based on a narrative from a analyst or a CEO. They are paid to see the world as they hope it will be. Invest on results, and those results have to have some revenue attached to them. Pops on the narrative must be sold.
Tks for the thoughtful analysis. My concern is the mkt share number. GILD has a new version of Solvadi coming in Q4 that won't need the JnJ drug, and is 1 pill per day, with almost zero side effects (So I have read, I know nothing).
Also for what I have read, the ABBV treatment is more complex, and has side effects.
I have a large GILD position, and a smaller ENTA position for a hedge, but I am thinking that at some point, I may move out of ENTA, bcse I am afraid of those long term royalty estimates.
Any thots about the mkt share numbers, and LT prognosis???
Tks, not meant to be adversarial, more to better understand what might happen come Q1 next yr.
OK, I'll bite, why is HART a treasure trove? Not from the narrative, from the numbers?? I sold in the 9's, and am looking to re-enter, but it just keeps getting cheaper. Why? And why don't others see that "treasure trove"??
The last 2 weeks has not been kind to med device companies. One new IPO priced at the very low end of the range, then sunk on the offering.
NSTG had a good (not great) ER, better ev and less of a loss, and still took a 20% hit.
In tribute to that hit, I doubled up on Friday at 12.50, and a very late day pop moved it to just over 13, then settled at 12.97.
I make 2 observations. One, the prospects haven't changed, what has changed is how the market values those prospects. In the next year, that valuation will correct. It was 22, it will be 22 again.
The other observation is that all these companies had good Qs. And they all took hits.NSTG keeps moving fwd, we just need the mkt to value it a little higher.
I had posted that I thot it would hit 25 this yr. When it got to 22 and started to fall, I sold, thinking it had gone too far too fast. But, I bot back way too soon, and now have doubled up. I remain confident that it will see 20 again this yr. Maybe even 25!
I rarely post here, if ever, but I have held REGN since 120.
"The knowledgeable ones..."...well, I don't have a lot of respect for the sell side analysts, but their eps estimates are an important barometer in them keeping their jobs. If they are way off, and clients lose faith in them, the firm gets a new analyst.
In the last 7 days, the consensus EPS est for 2014 has gone from $4.37/sh to $9.87/sh, and there's 18 analysts that are in that mix. The low est is over 8 bucks.
REGN's eps have been growing at an amazing pace, it deserves more than a 25 multiple on this yr's EPS.
imo, so I continue to hold. In fact, with their pipeline, I expect $15/sh eps in 2015, or maybe june 2015-june 2016. With just a 25 multiple, that's 375/sh, and with a 30 multiple, $450/sh. My guess, and it is a guess, is $400/sh in Q2/Q3 next yr.