good plan, but a better plan is to invest in the "up and coming" biotechs. Look at PCYC over the last month. Look at PCRX over the last yr. If you hold GILD and nothing else, you could be missing out on some big movers.
GILD shd be fairly long term solid, but so many others are moving faster.
To be fair with you, I have a core of GOLD/ALXN/CELG/REGN, but I have much larger % profits in ISIS, PCRX, MDVN, etc. I sold my PCYC wayyyy too soon.
Here's a guess, I have a lot of SLXP, I would bet that SLXP will outperform GILD over the next 6-9 months.
So many choices, and limited money...
I shd say that this little retracement is not getting me to sell, and I won't sell, even if there's a pull back, but I won't add until the ETFs slow down a little.
imo, that is bad investing.
At this moment, all the biotech indexes and etfs show them being overbought. It is a low probability investment to buy any biotech at the current levels.
If the group has a sell off (and the group has sell offs quite regularly), few, if any, stocks in the group will go up.
Are the major indexes up for the yr? Biotech ETFs are up 8 or 10%...time for some settling.
people on this MB will know details better than me, but yes, it has a small effect on AMAG, but everyone knew of this coming for at least a month.
Of the fcsted eps for next yr, very little, maybe 5%, was from the drug that competes in the iron market. KERX would seem to be more affected, and it's up a dime.
AMAG's growth has more to do with the growth of the business they acquired...not the iron business.
re, being a KERX investor. I was, and am not. I got out close to the highs, for a very simple reason.
I watch the esp est all the time. 3-4 months ago, the esp est for 2015 started to drop for KERX. I had sold at 18, then re-bot at 14+, saw that esp reduction, and sold again at 16.
Since then, the eps est keep going down. As does KERX stock.
And, in the same line of reasoning, I sold my RMTI at 11. Didn't want to be watching that same story play out. So many other places to invest...
And I ask myself, is all the optimism for RMTI any different that all the optimism there was for KERX? Can KERX get back into an upward trajectory in the SP without an upward revision on the esp est? I don't know, so I don't own it anymore.
Re Mkt lows, energy has been, and still is, the worst performing sector last yr, and so far this yr, according to IBD.
So, I agree with patchen, it's very tradeable. In fact, I have done very well, in the past week, with XEC, CXO, and especially PE. As of Fri at 4, I owned none of them. PE is an IPO from last yr, well financed (compared to the peers), with great hedges out to 2016. RSPP is another safe play.
Sectors at the bottom are tradeable, but, to me, not investable. I watch the XLE, and the SMAs, to decide when a group becomes investable, and to me, that means a positive slope on the 21 da SMA, and then loading up when the 21 da crosses the 50 da.
But the trades are there.
Last, history says that the E&P stocks start moving up 4-6 months before oil moves up. There already has been 20% pops in many oil stocks, you just don't know if there could be a fast drop. GL.
And, why isn't PTX doing better? I am loaded with it!!!
anyone listen to the webcast?
I didn't know they were doing that, you have to poke around their website to find it, and so far, I could not find a way to get a re-play.
tks for the response, I wasn't reading the press, I was doubling up at 93.
I was heavy into BMRN a couple times, starting in the 50s, near 2 yrs ago. Kept trading out of it, and that had been a good thing.
But now I see a brighter future for BMRN, I fully expect BMRN to be 130-150 at some point this yr. With, or without, a takeover.
Most important, a SO insulates BMRN from having to agree to any onerous terms, whether in a partnership or an acquisition.
So I got more shrs, and BMRN got stronger! Good deal!!
My experience is that it's tuff to get a rally until the SO is priced. I am already happy and surprised by today's action.
When do you think they will price the SO??
Tks for the supportive works. People diss off on MBs, but I was heavy into HZNP, and the support of the MB people got me to hold it for the long haul.
Re: " The overall market will be ho hum this year,", I can offer multiple scenarios that it is way better than last yr.
The most obvious, which people don'tr seem to understand, is that rates will not be going up this yr. I could go on about that, but trust me, FedSpeak is just political butt covering, no rise to interest rates this yr (unless you could a tenth of a point, or so, a rise).
More important will be the spectre of the return of QE. I have argued for 5 yrs that QE will be QE (n+1), ie, go on forever. If sovereign debt were to reduce here and in the world, maybe we could get by without more printing presses. But Europe is being pressed into more printing, that's why the Swiss bailed out, and when they do, we will be forced to do the same. In one flavor or another...
If that happens, and I put the chances of that way above 25%, the mkts will zoom, equities love liquidity.
No, I wasn't buying 42K shrs, I just added 1K at 2.90...didn't even see there was a big order there.
The question I have for myself is do I take instant gratification and sell if it gets to 3.20 (the 1K was just a little extra, I have a lot more), or do I wait it out?
I just believe this is worth 4 right now, and 6 in 6 months, but micro caps have their own trading patterns...
I was in at 2ish, sold at 3.35, back in under 3 ave cost.
biotechs soft as the JPM conf concludes, KITE off 15 yesterday, a lot of fluff came off the fluffy. But some held in, CLVS was flat, for instance.
WW, the oil price could cause systemic risk. The Swiss action yesterday will throw a huge rock into Europe, a lot of home mortgages in Europe are issued by Swiss banks, and denominated in Swiss francs. The Swiss franc jumped huge yesterday. 46% of the home loans in Poland come from Swiss banks, so their mort pmnt went up 23% yesterday.
Oil is close to a bottom (imo). It has to go back to 80/bbl, but that could be in a year or more. Any recovery will stabilize Russia, and many countries.
So, to me, it's all about oil, and oil is up a buck this morning.
I shd have paid more attention to the MB I am on, LPCN is so far away from any FDA action, the current trials go until Q4. I don't know what kind of FDA speak you anticipate, but the only FDA speak I want is for an approved drug, which still seems 18 to 24 months away.
If you go to the FDA site, they have a link to all the PFUDA dates, see what you find.
But, those dates are just targets. If the FDA feels like it, they will do something, and if they don't, they push things out. I have POZN, when it came to their date last month, the FDA sent them a letter just like they received 8 months earlier, and it seems that the FDA could not get around to doing a site inspection bcse it wasn't in the US, and they just couldn't find time. In 8 months, they couldn't find time.
So whatever the info tells you, the FDA does what it wants tro do, which isn't too much.
hey, the swiss linked to the Euro a few yrs ago when their exchange rates were killing the businesses.
The swiss have a big advantage over all of Europe, they aren't in debt, they can do whatever they want.
Do you understand enough about PTX expectations to know if the FDA news is run-of-the-mill expected news, or a confirmation of the kind of results that will get us out of this selling mess?