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HCI Group, Inc. Message Board

soflaturtle 143 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2016 1:38 PM Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    reiterate guidance

    by soflaturtle Jun 16, 2016 4:41 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    I don't think a patent award to a small cap play like SUPN will move the needle. We need an analyst to come out with some new guidance to move it over 20. Just my opinion.

    The basic thot is that SUPN continues to execute, and in time, we will be rewarded.

    I did add a few shrs this AM.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    CDC says they want to have 25M doses, that's the key bad data point. They seem willing to have less inventory thru the next 5 yrs.

    So they retire what goes off the freshness date, and just buy 5M more each yr.

    5M/yr, 5 yrs, plus the 1M/yr that the military uses (per the Chardan note), and you get to about 29M.

    I see this as a very big change for EBS, and I am not sure the stock will recover. I also think that rfp quantity was leaked to some mkt participants, which is why the stock was dropping in the week before the RFP was released.

    I got out as soon as it started dropping, and I am not getting back in.

  • Reply to

    Chardan comments

    by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 8:16 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    btw, in addition to the 8M/yr shelf life needs, Chardan said the military consumes 1M doses. So they imply that the min need is for 9M/yr.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 8:16 AM Flag

    Out this AM, they say the sell off is overdone...but.

    Seems that the last 5 yr contract was for 45M doses, and this contract is for 29M. Thus the selling.

    Chardan notes that the shelf life for biothrax is 4 yrs, and that's a factoid that is news to me, and good news. They say that 8M doses a year need to be renewed just to maintain the current stockpile. 8m/yr for 5 yrs is 40M doses (my extrapolation), with no build up in the stockpile. Chardan seems skeptical about the 29M.

    They also note that the dev contract could be bid by anyone (the supply is a sole source contract). While EBS is well positioned to win that, there will be other bidders.

    Now I know why analysts were expecting a lot of growth next yr, they were anticipating a growth in the stockpile, while also needing to replenish the doses that had gone over their shelf life.

    I got this from a summary of the Chardan research that is available to Fidelity users, and came off midnighttrader.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    While I am careful about referring anyone to SA, I usually keep my largest holdings in a list at SA, and they notify you when there's an article about that company.

    The authors are individuals who get paid by the number of reads of their articles. Some are good, some are pure spam.

    If you sign up for NFLX or GILD, you will get emails every day. People post articles about those stocks bcse a lot of people own them, and read everything. I would suggest that 99% of the GILD articles have been wrong/trash.

    LGND is rarely written about, it's a smaller audience, so no one is writing about them

    Remember, on SA, no one is writing to put out good info, they are all writing to get views, which is how they get paid.

    But I do it anyway...

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    EBS had been an incredibly strong and stable stock for a couple months. Then, starting June 9, the selling started. Did someone know something?

    I usually hate conspiracy theories, but there was a 10%+ drop in front of this collapse, and I find it hard to believe that it's a coincidence.

  • Reply to

    Velocity trading back & forth

    by kenholmes59 Jun 22, 2016 11:42 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    here's another thot...I have been in talks with the gov on sole source procurements. It's a tricky business, they reserve the right to audit your financials, and your facility, to control any price gouging. That audit can be exhaustive, or superficial, depending on the procurement officer and the variance of your bid from a historical perspective.

    Usually, the govt, as much as anyone, understands that costs go up. If I looked at the consensus analyst estimates, that seemed a little higher than the qty estimates plus any cost increase.

    So again, I am totally confused. I didn't really expect the 2.66/sh that the analysts were showing for 2017, but this drop implies a 2/sh or less.

  • Reply to

    Velocity trading back & forth

    by kenholmes59 Jun 22, 2016 11:42 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    until I know why it went down so much, I really don't care where it is. This drop confuses me totally.

  • Reply to

    it's a slaughter...

    by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 9:43 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    as I said, hard to know what's going on. A couple months ago, EBS was my largest holding, and when it was above 44, I trimmed it down about 65%. Then sold some more at 40.

    Then after it opened off a buck and went lower, I sold it all, at about 2.25/sh off yesterday's close, on the average.

    What causes this drop is well beyond my imagination...but it shows you how risky even a seemingly bullet proof company like EBS can be.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    RFP comes out, I ahve to guess the qtys being requested are well below what was expected, stock off 5 bucks.

    When there is so little coverage, it's hard to know what's up...

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 18, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    I had tried to post a msg on this subject, and see it went into the yhoo was more exhaustive ands detailed than this summary.

    Basically, I was trying to say that BBH, the ETF indicator that I watch, had dropped to the point that it gave up 60% of the gain since the Feb lows.

    If LGND gave up 60% of it's gains, it would be at 103.

    With the Brexit issues, and the US economy being shaky, I have to think there's no rebound at least until the Brexit vote, and I have no idea what that vote will be, or how the mkt will react.

    I am out for now, and suggest if you are still long, maybe consider a BIS hedge position.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 5:46 PM Flag

    I am not sure where you get this misinformation from, but it again is way off.

    If they are referring to Q2 of 2016, I would note that the IBES consolidated est for EPS for Q2, an average from 3 analysts, had DROPPED 46% in the last 60 days.

    It was $.73/sh, and is now $.39/sh.

    Pls stop posting entirely, all your info is misinformation. Or lies?

  • Reply to

    Earnings estimates have been revised up for LGND

    by djhmk4 Jun 17, 2016 3:11 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    In the interest of full and honest info, in fact, the 2016 and 2017 eps est have been lowered in the last 7 days...

    2016 from 3.33 to 3.30.

    2017 from 5.10 to 5.03.

    If you insist on pumping, could you pls pump honest and current info??

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:03 PM Flag

    forget EGRX too. It's at 10x this yr, 8x next yr eps est.

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:02 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:02 PM Flag


    That's off the top of my head, some less than 10, a couple slightly over 10.

    LGND at 112, I will re-enter at well under 110, which I expect we'll see next week, maybe even lower. LGND off just 3% today, many bios off more than that.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 16, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    In a presser today re Trokendi, SUPN reiterated 2016 rev and operating income guidance.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 14, 2016 7:54 PM Flag

    Here's another tidbit of my experience. If they get any good news, sell the pop. These days, no success goes unpunished.

    EGRX got a favorable court ruling on a very important patent matter, and that ruling included patent protection until something like 2030.

    The stock popped to 55, and that was last Fri. It's back to 48, still above where it was, but selling at 55 was the thing to do!

    In bio these days, always sell a pop.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 14, 2016 6:01 PM Flag

    You all talk like there's a presser coming any day that the FDA has approved the plant, and the drug.

    A couple yrs ago, I had a stock (I forget which one, a small bio) that had an ingredient in their drug that came from a facility that the FDA could not find the time to inspect.

    You read that right, while they would not identify the company or the plant, it was clear that the FDA just thot it was too much time and effort to go to a plant to do an inspection, etc, etc.

    The stock collapsed, I waited a month or 2, and gave up. The company finally had to get a new vendor, get the process established, get the FDA approvals, etc, and all that took 1.5 yrs.

    With CTLT, that shd not be the case, but with the FDA, who knows?? The CTLT plant that was going to do the mfg is one of their finest plants. They have some special designation for it. But, it failed FDA.

    With the FDA, you just never know...

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 14, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    Last yr eps was 3.37, this yr expected eps of 3.33, next yr expected eps of 5.10. All courtesy of IBES/Reuters, which is the provider to YHOO for the numbers they show.

    Whatever you get from a stupid website, you need to check it against facts. If LGND had a current PE of 9, their EPS would be about 12.50/sh. Again referencing IBES, the expected EPS (from just a few analysts) for 2019 is 11/sh.

    Great day today for LGND, but I still maintain it's expensive. I can list 10 biotechs with 2016 P/Es at or around 10. 34 is hi.

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