"I agree they will need some revenue and profits"
Revenue in 2016, profits in 2017. By 2017, just 2 yrs from now, ISIS could see 100+.
That is still a pretty good profit, in % terms, which is why I hold it.
You mention GILD, everyone shd know that GILD could earn $10/sh next yr, so their fwd PE is just about 11. If ISIS were to suffer the same multiple, they would have to earn 8 or 9/sh to get to 100. Fat chance of that within 5 yrs.
Just trying to add some reasoned thoughts, not pumpers dreams, to this MB.
Just so some newbie doesn't think $150 next yr is at all possible...ISIS current mkt cap is $4.7B. At that level, a lot of success is already built into the price. Good news could be met with selling.
At 150/sh, the mkt cap would be over $16B, and there aren't ANY biotech, or anything, companies with a $16B mkt cap without significant revenue and profits. The promise of success is just not enough.
While I would love to see ISIS do well, I would be very happy to see $60 in 1Q next yr, and never want an acquisition. In a biotech acquisition, the real value goes to the acquiring company, not the shareholders. I offer you Pharmasset, which GILD acquired to get Solvadi. Would the Pharmasset shareholders be better off today having sold at a premium 3 yrs ago, or waiting for their own success with Solvadi? I can absolutely guarantee that they shd have done it themselves.
I posted last week, but my posts seem to have been lost by YHOO.
I am fairly confident in AKRX. It is my largest "mid cap" biotech. I have more GILD, etc by a lot (ie, the large caps), my mid tier plays include AKRX, ISIS, HZNP, MDVN, PCRX, KERX, and a couple others.
I don't get concerned about day to day volatility, unless it is coupled with some specific company news.
So I just hold AKRX. Last week could be uncomfortable, since it was down Fri on a big up day. But, today's it's up on a down day.
If you have biotechs that are developmental, ie, no rev, no P3 about to conclude, and rev may be 12-24 months away, then you can get worried about volatility. But, for me and my holdings, I just wait it out.
Geez, what is wrong with you guys? Haven't you ever heard the expression, "take what the mkt gives you"?
I fully agree with the manipulation, but small investors can do great. Small companies can't.
If you insist on playing micro cap stocks, be ready for a whupping.
But still in small caps, there's money to be made. You just have to work a lot harder on the research, and take your profits.
One area that is dead money is small caps with no rev, and no expectation of rev. That is exactly LPCN, take a deep breath, and remember, it is basically worthless, you are betting a lot on a future event that is fraught with risk, and a long time away.
But, if you like that, watch HART. I have bot it more than once, have none now, and always made money. At 7.50 or less, it's a sure thing. At 8, where it is now, you might to weather some downside before it goues back to 10, but, at some point, it will.
Ha, 2 things. One, this is not a correction, there won't be a correction.
And, ILMN is the most dominant player in a very rich business, more dominant that any other player in any other business.
Look at what they do, look at their product lines, look at their customers, look at their history.
Now, look at the #2 player. Oops, there isn't one! Well, if you count small players with 5-7% of their rev in very small niches.
Yes, hi PE, but no, not overvalued. What price do you pay for the priceless only game in town?
ps, shd ILMN drop any more, I'll just buy more, a recovery in their SP is a sure thing.
imo, 158 won't happen without serious damage to the major indexes, and then, again imo, there would be much better buys than ILMN (ie, going from 158 back to 170 is less than 10%, but I think many stocks, beaten down that much, would bounce much more than 10%).
Still, I like biotechs, and had made a lot on ILMN on a long run, and have recently been buying every time it got at or under 165, and selling over 175.
So, I'm back in for a move to 175 or 180, and when (not if) it gets there, I'll decide to hold a little longer, or sell.
I like a split for BIIB, GILD, REGN, and every 100+ stock.
With more shrs, it is easier to hedge your position with options.
If you have 100 BIIB, and it runs up, and you want to sell a covered call, you sell 1 contract. Or, if you want to protect to the downside, you buy 1 put.
If it's 100, the contracts are priced better (bcse of more liquidity), and your cost to hedge becomes easier, if you have 200 BIIB or 600 after a split, you might just hedge 200, or 400, and it is just harder to do that with hi priced stocks.
last, GILD has had a history of splitting at 80 or 90, but they also have let the price run. With AAPL, GOOG, PCLN, etc, etc having such hi stock prices, I am starting to think these guys won't split.
But, for the option liquidity, I would like it.
tks for that little chunk of history. I have held GILD for 3 yrs, and saw all the idiots make stupid upgrades/downgrades, move PTs, make really low rev fcsts, etc. Many times I was tempted to sell, but I held on.
I doubt MDVN will be a 5 bagger from here in 5 yrs, but i don't doubt it will be a 5 bagger from the 55 it saw back in May or so, in 3 yrs from that time, ie, I expect 200+ in 2 yrs or less.
GS removes it from their Americas Buy List, cuts to neutral from buy, and raises their PT from 90 to 110.
More wall st gibberish, what it really means, imo, is that GS wants to buy more at lower prices.
In my brokerage acct, they show that I sold my HZNP pre-merger shrs at 12.70, and bot new shrs at 12.70. So they show my holding period began last week, and I have a hefty short term gain this yr.
So, when I do my taxes for this yr, I will have to sift thru all the trades (many trades), and adjust both the cost basis and the holding period (shd I still be holding HZNP, which I fully intend).
So the gain they show will be negated by that action by me.
Has anyone else looked at the basis their broker shows for their shrs, and what is it? Does it show 12.70, or the price you paid? What does it show for your purchase date?
Just looking to find out if my broker is doing things different from others...TIA.
agree with the apples comment, I am a LT holder of ALXN, GILD, etc. They are established money machines, with products that their users can't live without.
While I look at HZNP with a fairly negative view (I call it a very exotic, fancy advil company, pretty bad huh?), I note a couple things.
One, the analysts have not updated their 2015 rev est, and the new prezo re-iterates that guidance. $400M or so.
Two, with a small product portfolio, mgmt of the growth is easier.
Three, with the Ireland thing, profits shd improve.
Four, even without outside influences, I think HZNP stock could get to 20 next yr easily, when $400M in annual rev becomes apparent, and the growth is still intact (assuming that to be the case), I would expect a mkt cap of at least 4x rev, or 1.6B, or $20/sh.
And last, despite the calls to limit the inversions, how can that happen? Is the US Govt going to stop all drugs from foreign companies? Not hardly, so HZNP could become a take over target for both the US and Euro based larger cap drug companies. Take out at $25 next yr is possible, purely speculation on my part.
So while their products are apples and oranges with ALXN, their stock price performance may be as good, or better, over the next 6-9 months. JMO, GL.
GL with PACB, I own a lot of it. I had a lot, sold it when it was over 6, and bot back too soon. I added more today. Hey, it was 5.50 last week, buying at 5.05 seemed like a pretty good deal...back to 5.50 is almost 10%, I like trades for 10%.
If you like PACB, shouldn't you also be in the big daddy, ILMN?
Watch VIMC, not a biotech, China semis for security systems, audio/video recording. Got in at 5.10 on Th or Fri, now 6.60. Room to go yet!
I also have a lot of ISIS. It will be volatile, but it will also be 60 at some point.
If you like the RNA technology of ISIS, buy ALNY.
ICPT is a sure thing, but you need to be patient with large $ swings.
PCRX is a sure thing, I have been in it for a while, and still expect 125-150 in a couple months, maybe a little more. Not selling yet!!
tks for your comfort. I was in this at 11, a year or so ago, got out at a hi price, over 20, then re-entered at 16, and added at 15. So I am just weary of poor stock/company performance.
Markets don't really differentiate between shelfs and SOs. When they see a shelf, they anticipate the SO...
i was sure this was heading for profitability in mid-2015, and a 25 stock price...now I will be happy to get my money out.
Just 2 days later, I'm back in at 2.65. Gimme 2.90 again, pls! (was never 100% out...)
Bad news, not that many shrs. Shd have bot more...
FYI, I also scooped up some HART, my 3rd try on it, in the past 60 days, always made 10%+ on each trade, it was close to 9 just 3 days ago, in at 7.65.
and, I have sold a lot again at 2.91. I never get out 100%, unless it popped to 3.50 or more. I keep a small position, and now I am waiting to re-load at 2.70-2.80, then wait it out again.
If it zooms up, congrats to all of you holders, I just don't get to make those profits.
My biotech popper today is TGTX, up 12%.
GL to all you holders of MDXG, I just got tired of the slow movement and unrecognized value in MDXG, and sold my entire position today.
I am doing very well in other sectors, like energy, etc. MDXG was like watching paint dry.
My sales usually coincide with a big move up, so GL to the faithful!!
Under 30 days from my post, we have the secondary!!! As to the comment about $25M burn for next yr, their balance sheet say they have $80M, but they are raising 100M, so I guess it will be well beyond 2015 before they get profitable.
If they have 80M, why are they raising now? More bad/terrible mgmt, the investment bank guys just needed their commissions now, so they made these idiots do a deal that could have waited 6-9 months.
This has gone from a speculative investment to a total loser investment.