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ONYX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

soflaturtle 31 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 21, 2014 12:09 PM Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 21, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    agree with the apples comment, I am a LT holder of ALXN, GILD, etc. They are established money machines, with products that their users can't live without.

    While I look at HZNP with a fairly negative view (I call it a very exotic, fancy advil company, pretty bad huh?), I note a couple things.

    One, the analysts have not updated their 2015 rev est, and the new prezo re-iterates that guidance. $400M or so.

    Two, with a small product portfolio, mgmt of the growth is easier.

    Three, with the Ireland thing, profits shd improve.

    Four, even without outside influences, I think HZNP stock could get to 20 next yr easily, when $400M in annual rev becomes apparent, and the growth is still intact (assuming that to be the case), I would expect a mkt cap of at least 4x rev, or 1.6B, or $20/sh.

    And last, despite the calls to limit the inversions, how can that happen? Is the US Govt going to stop all drugs from foreign companies? Not hardly, so HZNP could become a take over target for both the US and Euro based larger cap drug companies. Take out at $25 next yr is possible, purely speculation on my part.

    So while their products are apples and oranges with ALXN, their stock price performance may be as good, or better, over the next 6-9 months. JMO, GL.

  • Reply to

    Question to serious Biotech Investors

    by hunting4bargain09 Sep 12, 2014 4:22 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 15, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    GL with PACB, I own a lot of it. I had a lot, sold it when it was over 6, and bot back too soon. I added more today. Hey, it was 5.50 last week, buying at 5.05 seemed like a pretty good deal...back to 5.50 is almost 10%, I like trades for 10%.

    If you like PACB, shouldn't you also be in the big daddy, ILMN?

    Watch VIMC, not a biotech, China semis for security systems, audio/video recording. Got in at 5.10 on Th or Fri, now 6.60. Room to go yet!

    I also have a lot of ISIS. It will be volatile, but it will also be 60 at some point.

    If you like the RNA technology of ISIS, buy ALNY.

    ICPT is a sure thing, but you need to be patient with large $ swings.

    PCRX is a sure thing, I have been in it for a while, and still expect 125-150 in a couple months, maybe a little more. Not selling yet!!

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 10, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    est for EPS, that is...

  • Reply to

    ER

    by soflaturtle Aug 6, 2014 2:43 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 10, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    tks for your comfort. I was in this at 11, a year or so ago, got out at a hi price, over 20, then re-entered at 16, and added at 15. So I am just weary of poor stock/company performance.

    Markets don't really differentiate between shelfs and SOs. When they see a shelf, they anticipate the SO...

    i was sure this was heading for profitability in mid-2015, and a 25 stock price...now I will be happy to get my money out.

  • Reply to

    Upcoming events and catalysts?

    by cherylrotv2004 Aug 20, 2014 3:12 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 5, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    Just 2 days later, I'm back in at 2.65. Gimme 2.90 again, pls! (was never 100% out...)

    Bad news, not that many shrs. Shd have bot more...

    FYI, I also scooped up some HART, my 3rd try on it, in the past 60 days, always made 10%+ on each trade, it was close to 9 just 3 days ago, in at 7.65.

  • Reply to

    Upcoming events and catalysts?

    by cherylrotv2004 Aug 20, 2014 3:12 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Sep 3, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    and, I have sold a lot again at 2.91. I never get out 100%, unless it popped to 3.50 or more. I keep a small position, and now I am waiting to re-load at 2.70-2.80, then wait it out again.

    If it zooms up, congrats to all of you holders, I just don't get to make those profits.

    My biotech popper today is TGTX, up 12%.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Aug 29, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    GL to all you holders of MDXG, I just got tired of the slow movement and unrecognized value in MDXG, and sold my entire position today.

    I am doing very well in other sectors, like energy, etc. MDXG was like watching paint dry.

    My sales usually coincide with a big move up, so GL to the faithful!!

  • Reply to

    ER

    by soflaturtle Aug 6, 2014 2:43 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 29, 2014 9:05 AM Flag

    Under 30 days from my post, we have the secondary!!! As to the comment about $25M burn for next yr, their balance sheet say they have $80M, but they are raising 100M, so I guess it will be well beyond 2015 before they get profitable.

    If they have 80M, why are they raising now? More bad/terrible mgmt, the investment bank guys just needed their commissions now, so they made these idiots do a deal that could have waited 6-9 months.

    This has gone from a speculative investment to a total loser investment.

  • Reply to

    Billywilliams...

    by jtinformed Aug 22, 2014 4:40 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 24, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    My 2 cents, I know nothing about AMPE's problems (I do have a lot of shrs, but I defer to those on thsi MB who are immensely more knowledgeable than I am), but i know a lot about how mkts work, and esp naked shorting.

    A primer on naked shorting...it's when large HFTs and HFs sell stock short without doing a "borrow". That, essentially, inflates the float, in some cases, by 200-300%. There are no buyers of AMPE that can withstand a deluge of stock coming onto the market at that rate.

    So when do these naked guys cover? Well, the short positions are not even noticed until closing, ie, T+3. So when a naked short attack starts, you can be pretty sure it will last 2-3 days, maybe more.

    After 3 days, do you think they are in trouble? Hardly, the DTCC (dep trust clearing orp, the agency that clears all trades) sends out a FTD notice (failure to deliver). The HFTs and HFs ignore those notices, bcse the DTCC has no enforcement authority.

    So big naked short attacks last 2-3 days, or more, depending on news (see NQ), and the covering of those short shrs could take a month, or more.

    Also soo LCI, when they pre-reported their Q2 results, the stock recovered huge (it had been under short attack), which you can always know is short covering, not real demand, but then they came under another barrage of selling.

    I agree with the other posters on this MB, buy and be patient, but, imo, if there's a big pop, sell some, the short covering rally never has legs, too many people waiting to sell.

    Fair disclosure, I am rarely a LT investor, I am a swing trader. My only LT investments are in large cap bio, I have held a very large GILD position since shortly after the Pharmasset acquisition. other than that, I am a swing trader.

  • Reply to

    Upcoming events and catalysts?

    by cherylrotv2004 Aug 20, 2014 3:12 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 23, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Sorry, I like the current price action!! I had gotten out before the crash, in heavy under 2, rode that to 2.70, and have done 2 or 3 trades between 2.60 and 3.00.

    My YTD % gain on CORT is huge, I only wish I was buying many more shrs. I hope it gores back to 2.90. Then back to 2.60.

    I think 2.60 or so is a floor (could easily go to 2.45 on any given day, but not stay there for long...), unless the mkts collapse, which I don't expect. I also think 3.00 or so is a ceiling until there's some news that would get it back to 4, or higher.

    On the plus side, look at a 6 month chart, and you will see, despite the bumpiness, it's clearly in an ascending pattern. Those patterns sometimes make me want to hold longer...but I won't do that with the mkt heading into a holiday, and a traditionally weak Sept, and with all the WW unrest.

    GL, imo, at 2.70, there is almost no downside, and some huge upside, but that upside may take time to develop.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 22, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    Jeffries took MDWD public at 18, and have supported it since with good reviews. It's now $7/sh.

    Sure, they know that they are doing, they are doing what they can to manipulate the mkt....

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Aug 20, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Any idea why it's off 1.70 today with no news???

  • Reply to

    ER

    by soflaturtle Aug 6, 2014 2:43 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 15, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Tks for your perspective. I hope you are right about 25M burn next yr.

    The problem for investors right now is that small cap companies that are not going to be profitable this yr or next are wayyyy out of favor. No one is paying for future profitability.

    I had sold over 20, but reloaded at 16, then again at 14. I see 20 or more at some point, but the recent report, and the ensuing stock price, really drives me crazy.

    They shd show a clear path for financial success, not just technical success, imo.

  • Reply to

    retail investors

    by s52teve Aug 11, 2014 11:45 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 13, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I sold 1/2 of the shrs I had left yesterday at 40.23, and today, witht he dow up 100 and GILD up a lot, ENTA is back under 39.

    Maybe ENTA will break out, but for now, it has all the characteristics of a trading stock, it doesn't follow the mkt, it trades in a range, and there is no catalyst coming int he next 90-120 days to change that.

    It won't be going up, so, you can assume it will go down. I may re-buy those shrs if it gets under 38.

  • Reply to

    Analysts have HART's yearly target at $24!

    by stocker4949 Aug 4, 2014 1:09 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 12, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    as HART continues to have no rev, and the price continues to decline.... It's called "investing", and the object is to make money. Did you miss that part??

  • Reply to

    retail investors

    by s52teve Aug 11, 2014 11:45 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 11, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    I get it!

    After watching it drop from 46 to 38, you think people shd hold their shrs, bcse you think they are worth 80??

    I would point out to you that over the last 6 months, ENTA is basically flat. Certainly not on a trajectory to 80!

    Apparently, you know more than the market. I sold some at 43 (bot at 26), and am holding just a little. But I think ENTA is dead money for another 3 months, or more.

    So the sellers are the smart people, imo, not you. Stop preaching. Just hold the dead money and be quiet about it!

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 11, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    These earnings are all from royalty pmnts, when they go away, what will ENTA earn?

    I have read the news, press releases, and all the discourses on this MB, it is just not clear to me that ENTA will have EPS of more than 2/s after the royalty pmnts end. What do they get from ABBV, what will ABBV's sales be? It's anyone's guess.

    So you are betting on them using that money well, or on their pipeline.

    At least, that's why I am still in it, that EPS for the next 12 months is meaningless. Using it with a PE is just not a useful thought, if it were, ENTA would be 2x where it is now.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Aug 6, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Rev up nice, expenses up huge, and the stock plummets.

    Listen to the CC, when do they talk about running a business? it is all about the marketing and technology. From what I infer, this company will not be profitable till late 2015, and will probably need to do a secondary between now and then.

    Very bad business mgmt. The stock is down 50% from it's hi this yr, that is what you get with such bad mgmt.

  • Reply to

    Analysts have HART's yearly target at $24!

    by stocker4949 Aug 4, 2014 1:09 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Aug 4, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    "undervalued" implies there is any value. No rev, no rev fcst for a couple yrs, this is total speculation. There is no value in HART. The analysts that you refer to are no better than carnival barkers, bringing in the curious and uninformed.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jul 28, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    They again raised 2014 rev est, which means that 2015 shd be much higher than the 150M now shown on YHOO/IBES. Maybe 2015 will be closer to 180? If so, the mkt cap will be about 1.5B, or about 2.5x where it is now.

    JMO, GL.

ONXX
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