Look at the other biotechs that ran into FDA issues. These things things take forever to resolve, that FDA is just so busy, no time for the drug companies. Getting meetings take time, formulating a plan takes time, getting the plan approved takes time.
PCRX will tread water for the next 3-6 months, the only upside could be from expanded use of Ex in the approved indications. Short of that, PCRX will be under 100 for a while.
I have some POZN, one of their suppliers of a compound addressed some FDA concerns 9 months ago, and the FDA just doesn't have time to check it out, Dead money.
I have a lot of AMPE, the FDA was complicit in the failure of their P3 trial ( a FDA contractor let the drug freeze while in transit to the hospitals). 6-8 months, and very little progress.
The FDA is arrogant beyond imagination.
No big deal? Down 21 bucks is no big deal?
Plus, you must be a novice in biotech stocks.There is no working on the concerns very quickly where the FDA is concerned. This is a 9 month setback. 6 months min. It is more than a month to get a meeting with the FDA to review the CRL...
Hopeful for what?
I sweat when a crummy stock like TKAI moves up so much on no news. Maybe I shd sell my (crummy, small) stake. (crummy applies to the stock, not the company...)
I had a nice run with it from 12 to about 18, back in at 15, and I have been under water since then. Seeing some green makes me want to sell..
I hope this doesn't come back to bite me, but I am not too concerned about tomorrow's ER.
The way I want to see it, is that MDVN/Xtandi is the best drug in the prostrate mkt, and will, in time, capture 20% market share. That is just my first guess in this analysis.
I am pretty sure that mkt is about $17B now, and in 2-3 yrs, could easily be 19B.
20% of 19B is 3.8B of MDVN revenue. Assuming new indications, new applications, let's be generous and say just $4B of rev.
At 4B, I would expect a mkt cap of at least 25B. Maybe 35B.
At 25B, we have a 3 bagger in 2-3 years.
So, to me, the only issue is time, and the successful penetration of Xtandi into the mkt.
GLTU tomorrow, but I don't think it's an issue for those who want to hold for the long term.
I shd mention my other sales yesterday, sold my PTCT about 30 min before it popped 10 bucks. I made 5 bucks on it, but passing on another 10 really hurt!
Here's how I see OPHT, and many ofthe bios I own. Some are holds, and that's the ones with revenue, and, with most of those, profits too.
A few without revenue are holds for me too, but not for much exposure.
The ones that are trading based on future events are the most volatile. And they are the most volatile in a volatile sector! When the indicators I use (the etf technicals) get overbought, I trim the ones that are total dev plays.
So I also sold 1/2 my ZIOP yesterday at 10.40, it's 9.90 now.
Fair disclosure, I have a system that is nothing more than a little bit of structure around a complete guessing game. At any moment, the bios with no rev could collapse on some FDA news, or some analyst attack, etc.
GL, I agree with you, OPHT will be much higher in 6 months than now, whether from their own efforts of from a buyout.
oops, but the selling got me back into OPHT, I had done a fast trip from 49 to 55, and got out. Back in at 52.50.
Wild ride, but you need to keep the Rolaids handy!!
my happiest day with NSTG was when I got out of it....it is a badly run company, thus the lousy stock performance.
If it sees single digits, I may speculate on 100 shares. I got burned so bad when I had bot a couple K at 16, after the run to 21. Never again.
I agree on the PT.
A 20 PE will only happen after the govt gets out of the picture. I assume that this run up is bcse someone knows that the govt case is running on fumes. I have posted my intense dislike for the govt in general, and my greater dislike for this Justice dept, and it's lying leader.
So I had a nice position when this started, and added a lot on the drop, and spent some time in anguish as this played out.
As to the comment about next yr EPS est, I assume they are low bcse the analysts don't want to go out on a limb while the govt case is still active. I expect those estimates to move up when the case is officially dismissed, but that could be a while yet.
There is no reason for next yr eps to be less than 4.50, maybe 5/sh.
Also agree on the price pressure, but I think most of that is from politicians and PBMs who are just being self serving, and have no real ability to move pricing around.
GL, I am not selling, and with this huge move this yr, LCI has become one of my largest holdings. Yeah!
I'm not a CFO, but I do hold a lot of shrs. If you think MDXG is worth a lot more than 8 or 9 bucks, let me give you a counterpoint.
The analyst expected EPS for this yr is just .19, from 5 analysts. That makes the current price a leading PE of 45.
That is a very hi PE for MDXG. The only way the price gets to mid double digits is for investors to see a time when the EPS will be 50 cents/sh. That may come in 2016, which could be clear in late 2015.
At some point, companies stop being valued on potential, and start being valued on earnings.
In a takeover, the acquiring company usually finds ways to reduce the costs of the acquired company by eliminating redundant operations, from finance to sales. MDXG has a large sales expense, if an acquirer thot they could manage that number way down and keep growing, then MDXG becomes much more valuable.
jmo, and as part of that thot process, I don't think there can be a substantial buy out until late this yr, at best.
GL, I'm in the same boat, so being wrong and having the price move up sooner would make me very happy.
Just ones that have not been mentioned:
AMPE up 80% ytd
PFNX up 80% in a week
PTCT, a sure large winner, despite the 50 buck price tag
and I don't have any GENE, hundreds of % in 2 weeks.
hofno, since you clearly are more on top of this stuff than I, may I ask about POZN? I have held it thru this last debacle, and worry if it will ever be resolved. Such a small issue, and such a failing of the POZN mgmt, in my view.
But, I would be interested in your view...sorry to ask this on the LPCN MB...I have some of it too...
While you are spamming your heart out, I would note that the Q4 EPS was -.26, vs est for +.30. Thus why the stock is down.
Read the report, apparently you have no idea how, or look at the actuals as reported to YHOO analyst est page for AMAG.
Here's a way to see things. Biotech was the leading mkt grp so far this yr, up 6+% ytd. But, energy is just as critical, and a much larger mkt segment. Energy is bigger than all medical/health, and biotech is just a part of medical. And energy was in last place!
So energy had to get better at some point, and the money was going to come from the better performing areas.
I have watched small cap energy jump 60-80% already, and some of the bigger names are up 20-30%.
My expectation is that the selling in biotech is over, as far as the sector rotation goes. But, I also expect there will be less money going into biotech, since I sold a lot today and bought energy myself.
I usually expect biotech to be up an average (measured by the ETFs) of 30-40%/yr. It was up more than that last yr, so I would have been OK with the lower end of that range. So when it was up 6.6% already, I was looking over my shoulder.
So, yes, the crazy selling may be over, but I don't expect frenzy buying, because frenzy buyers have gone to the energy sector.
My thinking is that it's sector rotation, out of bio, into energy. Energy is a much larger segment, needs a lot of money to move it, the money had to come from somewhere.