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CVR Energy, Inc. Message Board

soflaturtle 156 posts  |  Last Activity: May 25, 2016 6:15 PM Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Bot more...

    by soflaturtle May 11, 2016 3:19 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 25, 2016 6:15 PM Flag

    No one here?

    I feels like I have suffered for years, but it's been 2 weeks, and I am back to where I bot those shrs. I also bot more at 24.60.

    I might guess that a lot of the bounce was bcse the Nas has been so strong, so if there's a drop, I suspect ZLTQ will also drop. So I sold some of the 24.60 shrs today after the price backed off from 28, got 27.90.

    I still think it will get back to 30, maybe sooner than I thot!

  • Reply to

    Short interest decrease:

    by djhmk4 May 25, 2016 8:46 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 25, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    never put too much credence into those repts, they may be accurate for a stock like LGND, but for any reasonable liquid stock, that reported number does not have any component in it for the naked shorts. It is just the shorts that got a "borrow" to go short.

    For a hot stock, at any time, esp one that is being beaten down like VRX was getting beaten, the naked shorts could be anywhere from 2x to 10x the reported number.

  • Reply to

    Wouldn't you know it.

    by jbfan139 May 19, 2016 8:21 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 20, 2016 2:44 PM Flag

    jb, these days, after the pain of the last 8 months, I put in stops all the time. Maybe not when I first buy, but if I'm into a 15 buck stock, and it moves to 18, I put in a GTC stop at 17, and if the stock moves up, I move the stop up.

    I can always buy back, these days, I can't bear watching things drop.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle May 19, 2016 4:13 PM Flag

    tks for the MRK info. I have a close friend who has just contracted Lou Gehrig's disease. These neurodegenerative diseases are really hard on the patient and the family.

    Re EBS, buy some. They are the only bio that is focused on bio defense. That means they have the only anthrax vaccine, and one or 2 others. Those drugs are bought by govts for stockpiles. There are only 2 risks for this yr, after that, EBS will grow 20%/yr.

    The 2 risks are (1) they are spinning out their non-bio defense business later this yr, shd be no impact (really shd be a positive EPS impact, which is reflected in the 2017 eps est), bcse that business has a lot of potential, but no rev, so EBS is spending money to fund those developments. Who knows how that will go.

    Second risk is they suspended guidance bcse the CDC, who place the contracts for the vaccines, won't have a new contract for them until after Sept 30, and EBS has no backlog past that date.

    What you have to understand (and I do, I sold tech stuff to teh govt for yrs) is that Oct 1 is the new Fed FY, and no govt can contract this yr to spend next yr's money. So they have to wait until the next FY starts to release a new contract. Shd I worry?

    Here's the real tidbit, do you know what the US govt (really Ft Deitrick in MD) budgeted last yr for bio defense? It's over (sit still for this) $50B!!!! The orders to EBS are small change.

    The daily/weekly price can move with the sentiment, but EBS is headed higher.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle May 19, 2016 2:11 PM Flag

    I do not stay nearly as intimate with LGND as you do. I lost a bundle on bios last yr (thank you, HRC...), and now only have large positions in EBS and LGND. I try to not watch too closely, it makes my heart skip a beat or 2.

    Today it was down 5.50 or more, now down "just" 3.50, but the day isn't over. I read your posts, and wonder where you find out that these drugs are Captisol enabled, and I appreciate you posting the info.

    But I just hold my shrs, I hope I am not making a mistake, but it doesn't seem that way.

    BTW, EBS is at (or after today, close to) a all time high. Peopel are starting to understand the story is my guess.

  • Reply to

    Wouldn't you know it.

    by jbfan139 May 19, 2016 8:21 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 19, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    I'm back in. I was a victim of this stock when it dropped from 33 to 21 or so in a day or 2, waited to recover some of the losses, and got out. Still lost a bundle.

    Back in at 24. My experience tells me that these convertibles take a while to clear, the buyers of the notes take out a lot of short positions, and put options, to lock in their returns. That activity can take a little while, but I will be patient and wait for 28.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle May 14, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    fud, not to argue, but here's my experience:
    From completion of P3, it takes a min of 2 months, and I have seen a year (ACAD) to get the NDA done.

    From NDA submittal to NDA acceptance is always 3 months.

    With the acceptance comes the PDUFA, which is 10 months, but with a PRV, 6 months.

    Then, it usually takes 2-4 months to start sales/get rev to flow.

    So, Q3 P3, plus 3 mo for the NDA, plus 3 mo for acceptance, plus 6 for PDUFA already gets us into late 2017, and then rev won't happen till Q1 2018.

    Not to argue. I certainly hope it is as fast as you suggest.

    My current concern is the continued weakness in the biotech markets. My best example of the weakness is that I have some MELI, a very good internet company.

    LGND has more EPS this yr, and more projected, next yr, than MELI, by a considerable margin.

    LGND has a much higher growth rate.

    LGND has a lower stock price.

    Not to mention that stalwarts like CELG are selling at historically low P/Es.

    Aside from bio, another area I put a lot into is VR, and those plays are hitting homes runs. ATVI and NVDA are my 2 biggies, but I also have TTWO, AMD, a little EA, and FB, but VR is a very small part of FB. NTES is another great VR play, they just reported with gr8 numbers, but they are burdened by the China govt thing.

    GL.

  • I posted back in Jan to sell HZNP back then (at 19/20), or, at the min, to hedge any holdings with BIS.

    I was soundly attacked by the permafools. Time has proven me right, 4 months into the year.

    Among the reasons I suggested was the socialist movement in this country that could lead to price controls on drugs. I said that we shd not dismiss the candidacy of B Sanders, there are way too many people who want to take away anything they can from anyone they can. They have been wronged, and we must pay.

    I want to suggest that if you are holding any bio stocks, you go to SA, and search articles for GILD, and read the article that has B Sanders in the title. Govt price controls are coming.

    Regardless of who wins the election, and you would be foolish to totally dismiss Sanders, this story, and the bill that has been introduced in CA, show that drug price fixing by the US govt is going to happen in some form.

    It will affect GILD, VRTX, and all companies that sell drugs that are high priced, with the govt as the main payer (HCV drugs treat a disease that doesn't affect the vast majority of tax paying, responsible adults, but does afftect a huge percent of the prison population, tells you about drug use in prisions). But it will also affect drug companies that have a lot of different price levels, and force them to normalize those prices to the lowest price.

    Even if HZNP doesn't fit into this profile, that article tells me that drug stocks have no upside for the next 12-18 months.

    Short VRTX, VRX, GILD, buy BIS.

  • Reply to

    Many funds accumulating along with upgrades :

    by djhmk4 May 12, 2016 12:16 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 13, 2016 8:27 AM Flag

    I am lightening up, and hedging what I will still hold, by buying some BIS.

    Look at the GILD stories on SA, read the article that references B Sanders support for a price fixing bill in CA.

    This is the worst case scenario for drug companies, and drug stocks. Even if it doesn't get passed, it shows the path we are on.

    It will affect all drug prices, sooner or later. It will also affect what drugs get to market, many drugs won't get developed bcse of the lower stock prices that will deny adequate funds to those companies to continue development.

    It's a shame that no one understands the full impact of what is going on, but it probably doesn't matter. I have been in public places (bars...) twice in the last 2 weeks sitting next to avowed socialists (one a 30 yr old, the other a 55 yr old), and there is no way to talk facts or common sense, they believe what they believe, and facts are just an impediment to their beliefs, so they dismiss facts.

    It is not just the drug business at risk. The stakes are much higher.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle May 12, 2016 3:45 PM Flag

    best part for them is the priority review, but from what I read, it is still a long way away, maybe 2 yrs (complete P3, submit NDA, get a PDUFA, wait 6 more months, total at least 2 yrs.

    Again, tks for psoting that.

  • Reply to

    12.75

    by topgunbioinvestor May 12, 2016 1:37 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 12, 2016 1:44 PM Flag

    It's amazing there is anyone on the MB anymore.

    Twice in the last few weeks people have had the chance to sell at 16. If you thot it was going higher, guess again.

    I sold both times at over 15.75, and bot back, as I have done again. But, each time I buy back, I buy fewer shrs, just bcse the constant drops signal a lack of strength.

    Until the pricing of drugs issue is settled, all drug/bio stocks are trades. That issue won't be settled for 12-18 months. Next pop, I'm out for total and good!

  • Reply to

    Honest Questions

    by highseas200 May 12, 2016 1:12 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 12, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    from a past sales mgr, sales failures can come from many things, but in the end, it is mgmt execution. Saying stuff on concalls like "got better late in the Q" or "the weather was bad" or "the dog ate my homework" is nothing more than excuses.

    If they failed to execute last Q, what are they doing to correct that? From what I heard, nothing.

  • Reply to

    More upgrades to follow :

    by djhmk4 May 12, 2016 8:45 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 12, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    Here's a thot for you, have you noticed that AMZN is up 40% in the last 3 months? When I think about adding to LGND, I have put that money into AMZN, for now at least. Just a thot, I need at least a little diversification. Bios are so manipulated.

    I have a lot of MELI, it has lower EPS est for both this yr and next, relative to LGND, and a lower growth rate, yet it is at a much higher price.

    I don't think this fog that is all over bio is going away for a long time...

  • Reply to

    More upgrades to follow :

    by djhmk4 May 12, 2016 8:45 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 12, 2016 9:04 AM Flag

    The ave EPS est for both this yr and next have also gone up, a logical result of the upgrades.

    2016 ave eps est is now 3.53/sh, next yr is 5.14. The hi est for next yr is 6/sh.

  • Reply to

    Reviewing the Corematrix deal

    by fud_wrecker May 6, 2016 12:16 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 11, 2016 5:19 PM Flag

    fud, I never call a bottom, I look at the fundies when there is a sell off, and subscribe the the std technicals that have seemed to work for year. I am a math guy...

    Here's my current laffer, I have as much MELI (at least before today) as LGND. LGND has more eps est for this yr, and next, than MELI, and a higher growth rate. Yet, LGND's SP is way below MELI (when LGND was 131, it was above...).

    So, on a tech level, it's close to a bottom, but on a relative level, it is really cheap!!

    I bot last time it went under 115, in my IRA, and sold those shrs already. If it peeks below, or near 115 tomorrow, I'll buy again.

    I keep a core position, trade in other accts...

  • Reply to

    Bottom line on CPXX:

    by frozen_balls May 11, 2016 1:02 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 11, 2016 3:43 PM Flag

    Care for an opposing position?

    CPXX revenue is still 20 or more months away (submittal-acceptance-pdufa date-commencement of marketing). That takes a long time.

    It is my experience that a lot happens in 20 months, a lot seems to happen every week these days.

    Plus, CPXX has enough cash to limp along for a while, but not nearly enough to do a launch. In the next year or so, they will need to do a large SO.

    It is my observation, in many past cases, that I expect to play out with CPXX, that there will be a lot of volatility for the next 2 yrs, and a lot of that will be downside volatility.

    Back to 13 is my guess.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle May 11, 2016 3:19 PM Flag

    They beat, they guide up, everything looks great, and the reward? A near 9% sell off.

    I just could not resist, I bot some at 25.70. If it gets back to 30 (and it shd...), I will have a return of over 15%, close to 20!

    I just don't understand the selling, maybe I shd have listened to the concall, maybe the CEO is a child molester? Given that I doubt there are any issues, I hope we are going back to 30 in a week or 3.

  • Reply to

    under 15...

    by soflaturtle May 6, 2016 10:34 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 10, 2016 4:46 PM Flag

    Where for Happy Hour? That's a laff, move to FL, if you don't have a Happy Hour special, you would have no customers. I can go to about 10 places within 3 miles that all have 16 oz tap beer for 2 bucks or so, and many have food specials too. House liquor drinks are usually half price.

    It's one of the advantages of living in a resort town (Deerfield Beach, FL). The disadvantage is the constant crowds and traffic. But the bar deal is tuff to beat!!

    Try looking for a Yard House near you. It's part of Darden, they have about 100 beers on tap, not for 2 bucks, but they are all on happt hour specials, plus a great appy menu for about 1/2 price too. Great place to go after a tuff day watching SUPN recover nicely.

    Oh, those extra shrs? They were bot in the IRA, and were sold today for 16.30. Big hit for the IRA!!

  • Reply to

    Some things to come.

    by crecy_war_knight May 9, 2016 11:39 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 10, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    tks, kind of what I expected, I shd be seeing my fam is a week or 2, I'll ask again.

    It's also disappointing that the ACAD's of the world need to buy ads to get the docs up to speed, but as with everything, reality s--ks.

  • Reply to

    Fud - CorMatrix

    by sciencephd May 9, 2016 5:58 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle May 10, 2016 2:25 PM Flag

    tks. Re ALDX, I used to buy dev bio, but not these days. The only bio I buy is those with current revenue, or in ACAD's case, revenue streams about to begin. Hopefully, that puts a floor on the stock price.

    re MRK, the big news I am waiting for is who buys MDVN, I think that will cause a cascade of 3 or 4 bio buyouts. GILD needs to buy something, BIIB (imo) will want to buy ACAD (I have a small pos in ACAD), and RLYP shd get done, but there's a number of gating issues that have stopped that from happening. I think MRK will be part of any BO discussion, so I think the next 6 months will be full of money making opps. Maybe even VRTX...their CF franchise has been under fire for a while, they may want to cash out, many would love to have their products and pipeline. Like GILD...

    LGND and EBS are my only 2 really persistent bio positions. The rest are trades, or positions I am less committed to.

CVI
19.50-0.71(-3.51%)May 26 4:02 PMEDT