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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

soflaturtle 122 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Generic healthcare sector and biotechs

    by classshopper Nov 13, 2014 1:04 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 9 hours ago Flag

    good call so far, now I hope you are right.

  • Reply to

    Target Price By Analysts

    by rampuntzel Nov 19, 2014 11:32 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 10 hours ago Flag

    for better clarity...

    Using the 50 bucks, that implies the cost to the consumer was 17.50 or so, which means the cost to the PBM/Pharms was probably 10. So before, the pharms/PBMs were taking a 70% margin.

    Now the cost goes to 20, a double, and the consumer gets whacked for 50???

  • Reply to

    Target Price By Analysts

    by rampuntzel Nov 19, 2014 11:32 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 10 hours ago Flag

    Thanks, I read the article, and was particularly interested in this passage:

    "But last year, the price charged to pharmacies nearly doubled, according to a recent report in The New York Times that cited data from EvaluatePharma. This meant prices for consumers sometimes tripled, and began reaching as high as $50 for a one-month supply."

    Seems to me they shd be investigating the PBMs and pharmacies, if the cost goes up 1x, and the resale goes up 1.5x, the middlemen have decided to scalp the consumer for double the profit margin.

    Using the 50 bucks, that implies the cost was 17.50 or so, which means the cost was probably 10. So before, the pharms/PBMs were taking a 70% margin.

    Now the cost goes to 20, and those 2 are taking 30 bucks!!!

    30 off a cost of 20 is a profit margin of 150%, more than double 70%.

    Who shd the Feds be after???

  • Reply to

    Target Price By Analysts

    by rampuntzel Nov 19, 2014 11:32 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 21, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    ah-ha! Someone who understands!

    Let me summarize:

    LCI has drugs that are so effective, Drs prescribe them over cheaper alternatives. So, some of the makers of those cheap drugs took them off the mkt.

    The PBMs were mad, they wanted to force their customers to take worse drugs because they were cheaper, they want to take LCO off their formulary.

    So, in Chpt 1, they get the State AGs to accuse LCI, and others, of price fixing. The stock goes to 34, and when nothing is found, the stock recovers.

    But, the PBMs have a lot of power, after all the govt buys a lot of drugs. So instead of having the staes claim collusion, now they get the Feds to syuggest that LCI engaged in anti-competitive price fixing.

    Now, what evidence do they have? None, the subpoena asks LCI to provide the evidence.

    This is just another govt/PBM inspired witch hunt, much like the attacks against GILD/Solvadi.

    This shall pass, but who can be sure how long it will take.

    The justice dept has 117K employees. They needs about 50K fewer, IMO.

    As taxpayers, think about that number. It is totally disgraceful.

  • Reply to

    Silly me

    by c110551 Nov 21, 2014 3:19 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 21, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    I am not concerned.I am not happy, either.

    AKRX had a lousy day. I also have LCI, lousy day. PCRX was up to 93.50, closed ay 88.73. CLVS off 2. HZNP off .50, and they are trading at a P/E of 12, based on 2015 earnings.

    This is just (I hope) another page in the manipulation of biotech stocks storybook. I have been thru this before.

  • Reply to

    5 for 1 Split Coming

    by wrb630 Nov 20, 2014 10:06 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 20, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Fool. REGN will be over 500 in 6 months, maybe 8. Then over 600 in another year. I hate biotechs getting bought, the ones that get bot are the ones that can give investors, like us, outsized returns.

    Anyone who wants REGN to be bought is a fool.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 20, 2014 11:36 AM Flag

    Won't even come up at a large pharm. Look at the deals they do, they want to pay $5-$10B for a revenue stream that will last for 10 yrs, with no risk. I don't see BDSI as having anything that a large pharm would want to buy today, maybe in a year.

  • Reply to

    Good time to go long on REGN?

    by twentyfourhouryen Nov 17, 2014 10:42 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 20, 2014 8:28 AM Flag

    Useless history- I live in SoFla, but used to sell SW in the NY Metro area. SW companies need large sales to succeed, and I made a small sale, back in 2000 or so, that no one noticed, or cared about.

    REGN bought about $80K of our SW. I went there, interested in their research. I had a friend working at Transkaryotic, up in Boston. I didn't understand any of the science, and since there wasn't any revenue yet, I put all those very young biotechs into the same basket.

    Anyway, that small SW company is gone, it was a failing enterprise from the start, and look what REGN has become.

    If I had taken my money from that SW company (it had the Y2K IPO thing going), and rolled it into REGN, I would be living in the most expensive home in SoFla now...but, alas, I didn't, and I am not!

  • Reply to

    after hours pop?

    by soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 5:28 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    just checked, 1800 shares in the after mkt trade, either someone is really dumb, or someone knows something.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    No news,but up 60 cents...??? Small, but is there something at work??

  • Reply to

    This AM news...

    by soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 8:34 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    looks like the mkt has answered my question...off 8%. May add some more shrs....

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Nov 19, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    People on this MB are way better informed than I am, may I ask, isn't all the news this AM regarding the data and upcoming trials all previously known stuff? Seems to me they are doing the right thing, just keeping everyone up to date as things progress so well.

    But, did I miss some new info?

    TIA.

  • Reply to

    Good time to go long on REGN?

    by twentyfourhouryen Nov 17, 2014 10:42 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 18, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    " I think that this company could rapidly get to $200 billion"

    In what timeframe?

    In my thinking, REGN gets to a 100B mkt cap in 4 yrs or so. What they will be at that time, what drugs they will have, what drugs they will be working on, all are completely unknown now (we have a pretty good idea of what they will have 3-4 yrs out bcse of the FDA process).

    So getting past 100B is something i don't even contemplate. I like getting to 50B for now.

    I first bot REGN at 95, it did (it's usual, but I didn't know that at the time) some gyrations, I was sweating, and when it popped to 110, I sold. It kept going to 120, I panicked back in, it dropped, but I had learned my lesson. Drops are for adding, not panic.

  • Reply to

    Good time to go long on REGN?

    by twentyfourhouryen Nov 17, 2014 10:42 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    I have owned REGN for years. Try this. Take a 5 yr chart, pick any random "peak", just before a drop. See how long you had to hold REGN to get back to that peak.

    REGN just went down about 30 bucks or so based on a missed ER, and it took about 10 days top recover, even in a weak biotech mkt.

    IMO, it's always a good time to buy REGN.

  • Reply to

    2015 for ALXN

    by dividendseeker Nov 16, 2014 7:35 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    oops, meant to say, come to the end of 2015, we will be looking at 2016 eps, which I expect to be over 7....

  • Reply to

    Zacks # 1 Addition

    by bklynguru Nov 11, 2014 3:04 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 2:41 PM Flag

    whatever he may be implying, I would note that the analysts, after the ER, raised both Q4 and 2015 EPS estimates. As long as the make higher and higher earnings/sh, the price per share will go up. Eventually....

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 2:39 PM Flag

    u, me, and almost everyone else on this MB!!!

  • Reply to

    DROPPING

    by dcr82160 Nov 14, 2014 12:38 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    and, out at 184.25. My biotechs are, in general, weak, so I took a (relatively) large pop off the table.

    Bot Fri sold Mon, made almost 5/sh, works for me!

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 1:52 PM Flag

    that is what I was referring to, but you also need to factor in the ESRX/Caremark position. They have been aggressive with other drugs that they considered hi priced, regardless of efficacy. I fully expect ESRX to aggressively push ABBV, and maybe even remove S & H from their formulary.

    So, patients will be left with a difficult choice, that I bet become a legal/political choice.

    The side effects are why the docs will continue to prescribe S & H, but the business issues could muck things up.

    Again, just a guess at why the price is so soft...

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Nov 17, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    I think it's explainable based on ABBV actions.

    First, they said they were not interested in a price war on their drug. But, the evidence says they can only win with much lower prices. I could list those things that indicate that, but I hope you understand the ABBV position.

    Then comes the patent, and investors realize that ABBV will try to win in the HCV mkt any way they can, and the commitment about prices was probably a lie.

    My conclusion is that many large investors don't want to own GILD if there's going to be a price war.

    Our choice as investors, is the think like the mkt (get out), or believe the GILD mgmt, who says they have a handle on this.

    Your choice, imo, but I don't expect GILD to get to the old highs until it is clewar that ABBV won't get more than 20% of the mkt, and pricing won't be severely impacted. That could take months.

    JMO...

INSM
13.52+0.28(+2.11%)Nov 21 4:00 PMEST

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