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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

soflaturtle 149 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Anyone know whay REGN's downslide continues?

    by aapl14 Dec 23, 2014 10:18 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 14 hours ago Flag

    ABBV is a scummy company, and very desperate. Humira patents expire soon, they absolutely need to get as great a % share of the HCV mkt as they can. There is nothing they won't do, no lie they won't tell, no deal they won't do, to establish themselves.

    GILD is much more honest, and, imo, lots smarter. Let's see how things play out.

  • Reply to

    Anyone know whay REGN's downslide continues?

    by aapl14 Dec 23, 2014 10:18 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 14 hours ago Flag

    Here's my sensibility. REGN was 275 at this time last year. They had a great year, and there's lots of optimism about 2015. But, 430 was overpriced.

    At the same time, the biotech ETFs have been up an enormous amount since the Oct 14 bottom, up 20%++. Using any technical analysis, they were overbought.

    So some selling had to be expected. Pour on the GILD/ESRX hissy fit, and things got ugly fast.

    If you are a trader, REGN is a fast mover amongst the larger cap biotechs. It has the highest fwd PE, and some of the highest other metrics, so volatility is assured. While my annual trades rival anyones, I do not trade REGN, for the simple reason that on any day, news could pop it 20 or 30 bucks. Volatility can be a good thing!

    Plus, if you bot any peak (which is usually easy to spot), and REGN crashed (like it just did), you usually only wait 30-45 days to recover.

    I hold REGN (since 112) and ALXN (did trade that on the huge Q1 pop). Very different profiles, REGN has lots going on, and ALXN has just 1 drug. But to me, both are stocks you can hold for very long periods.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle 14 hours ago Flag

    PCRX was a hot stock, and now that it has been caught in a range, no one seems interested.

    I have been lucky with PCRX. Had some shrs when it dropped to under 90, and I doubled up. Then, I sold those shrs at 96 or 97, then bot back, then sold, etc. Over 45 days, made a lot of money.

    But, I am concerned about the SP of PCRX. Wasn't one of the big issues about the info they could put on the label? Hasn't that been addressed in a way that doesn't seem to impair PCRX at all? Isn't the only issue the number of scripts that are being written?

    When I saw that FDA news, I was hopeful that PCRX would go back to the triple digit prices. But it hasn't.

    Anyone have thots about why it has been caught in this range?

    (ps, in all the biotech selling over the last week, PCRX has held up very well)

  • Reply to

    Uncertainty Brings Opportunity?

    by geringerart Dec 23, 2014 1:48 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 23, 2014 11:46 PM Flag

    my 2 cents, I think many people, with many stocks, get involved with a predetermined investing strategy.

    I have never been out of HZNP since I first entered after the drop.

    But, it is clear that HZNP has been, and thus will continue to be, a trading stock.

    I sold more than 1/2 2x at 13 or so, re-loading at 12 or less, and just sold on Fri at 13.50 or so.

    Why sell? HZNP backed off 13.50 before, and the bitech ETFs were overbought.

    I'll replenish HZNP in thew next day or 3.

    Yes, I think it's a great LT investing opp, but more importantly, it's a great trading stock, until there's a break out. No stock breaks out without a driver, and I just don't see a near term driver to break out beyond the range of the group.

    GL, being wrong is OK with me, if it breaks out, I will have at least 1/2 my usual holding, and if it doesn't, I get another 10%+ trip on the HZNP bus!

    But it's a trading stock for now, not a LT hold stock.

    ps, my main timing device is BBH and it's technicals.

  • Reply to

    Price Picking Up Steam

    by cb2durango Dec 22, 2014 12:34 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 22, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    I would like to make a positive comment, but won't. In the past, my comments have been badly timed, so I am resisting.

    But I will say this, I have been in and out of RMTI many times in the last year, and made money every time. I am in a little higher than it is now, and I fully expect to make nice money again!!

    Being up 20 cents is nice, but I am waiting for 10 or more...

  • Reply to

    Would be nice to see

    by igoneboner Dec 22, 2014 2:06 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 22, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    are you sure you know what you are doing? That is what the FDA studies are all about, and they are very detailed on all the things you mention. Plus, they are all in the public domain already.

    While I don't suggest SA as a source for the best info, there are multiple articles there that have the FDA data for both drugs. Do a little reading, pls.

  • Reply to

    Dont understand the drop in GILD

    by viperciara Dec 22, 2014 11:53 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 22, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    If the situation doesn't make sense, you aren't paying attention. ESRX has been attacking GILD for months, ABBV has been a slimy creature forever. ABBV bought the business, something that is quite unusual in drugs, but that was also telegraphed for a while.

    What surprises me is that GILD did not have a ready comment, or that investors reacted so harshly.

    In other drug stocks, it has created buying opps....

  • Reply to

    Looking for HUGE Up

    by classshopper Dec 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 19, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    I fully agree, but in a past life, I was deeply involved in managing a billion dollar indirect channel, and Sherman Anti-trust was a constant thought. Our attorneys weren't so concerned about the outcome (just like you with LCI), they were concerned about the process, the time, and the cost. Even large companies outsource the litigation, it is too burdensome. Expect the cost to be a million for a fast and easy settlement. More time, more money, count on 100K/mo at the min.

    As for what the CEO said, I know a bunch of stories about things like this, and what the sales guy tells the CEO could be vastly different from what is said under oath to a grand jury. With the CEO, he's protecting his job, with the grand jury, he's protecting his freedom.

    And, that is what concerns me.

    I am not selling, LCI will be a 60 buck stock, the question is whether that occurs in Q1 2015 or Q1 2016....

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 19, 2014 7:49 AM Flag

    It was time to buy at 86, then 90, then 100, then just yesterday at 113. What could you possibly be asking?

  • Reply to

    Looking for HUGE Up

    by classshopper Dec 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 18, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Pls define swiftly, not so swift so far.

    imo, there won't be any movement until the grand jury thing, and that could be a real killer on the stock. The govt claims there were secret mtngs with competition, which LCI denies. But under oath, what will be said??

    I am sweating LCI...

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 17, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    and, like magic, all the sellers disappear.

    I also have MNK, it was selling off like mad earlier, was off 1.90 or so, now up 1.90.

    After a lot of selling, the recovery gets very choppy. You need a lot of zen to keep it together.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 17, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    may I refer you to AMPE, they had a FDA problem caused by the FDA, it dropped, and has never recovered.

    With the FDA, all the bad news is never out!

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 17, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    I don't like it being down today, but i don't see a huge seller. The vol today looks to end up below the last 10 da ave, which is the same as the 90 da ave vol.

    And, when there is a large seller, there is usually volume spikes, and i don't see any of them, either.

    I would feel better if what you think is true, that would mean the reason for the softness goes away when that seller goes away.

    I just hope to think it's the usual AKRX volatility, and we will be back to 42 in a week or so.

  • Reply to

    OT - POZEN

    by betting_freddy Dec 17, 2014 9:29 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 17, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    you could have bot POZN this AM at 7 and sold at 8.40, if you were so lucky. POZN is off a buck or so right now, and if you listen to the concall, it could be a buy.

    However, a non-responsive FDA could continue to be non-responsive.

  • Reply to

    Looking for HUGE Up

    by classshopper Dec 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 16, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    How can you love LCI? I am getting pretty concerned. Another bad day across the board, but LCI was worse than I would expect.

    I added at 50 on the bad news, now I'm sitting in the red, my older shrs have a cost of 35, and the newer shrs are just sinking the boat. Only good news is that I had sold 1/2 on my shrs when it was at 55+.

    But this is painful...

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 14, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    I will be a scrooge at Christmas. GERN isn't going up bcse it isn't worth any more than 3.50/sh, actually worth less.

    Let's stop talking an\bout 935M. Let's talk about the 30M invested already.

    Let's see who is more heavily invested in GERN. Even if you have a nice portfolio, I bet everyone on this MB has at least 1% of their money in GERN.

    JNJ has a mkt cap of 300B. $30M is not 1%, it's not .1%. It is .01%. That is what JNJ has at risk!!!

    All JNJ did was put a "put" under the price of GERN for the short term. In time, their experience should help GERN get IM approved.

    If approved, what could they expect as rev, and given the 147M shrs outstanding, what pps would that demand?

    My best guess is that GERN does not see double digits until after approval, bcse that would imply a mkt cap of $1.5B. Until that time, I expect a lot of choppy movement, but not a pop above 4 this yr, and maybe not until there is some real positive news.

    JMO, I have bot and sold the pops and drops, and will continues to do so, bcse i don't think there is a run coming for a while.

  • Reply to

    CBST was bought for $9B

    by lbl4321 Dec 8, 2014 8:13 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 10, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    I shd have included, there are 2 things on a CFO resume that stand out. One, "I took that company public". Having that increases your value immensely. Two, "I helped that company get acquired, I led the team in the negotiation".

    CFOs with that on their resume retire to Palm Beach, FL.

  • Reply to

    CBST was bought for $9B

    by lbl4321 Dec 8, 2014 8:13 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 10, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    geez, you don't know too much about CFO employment contracts. If a CFO joins any company, he has, in about 99% of the big deals, clauses that compensate him for any eventuality. Whether it is a bonus, or more likely a load of shrs (a usual deal is for the company to load a new exec a load of dough to buy, in the open mkt, the same # of shrs that would vest in the first yr or 2 of their option contract, usually $250K-$400K).

    CFO's control a lot, any company needs a top level guy who can help them "market" the company, to investors, to buyers. They pay up for that kind of guy.

    CFO is a very good job...

  • Reply to

    CBST was bought for $9B

    by lbl4321 Dec 8, 2014 8:13 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 9, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    I agree with your thinking, but I am looking for a near term event. Have they hired a new CFO?

    I have a lot of experience with these wholesaler/distributor situations. While the CFO fell on his sword, and he should have, there are many other SLXP employees that were involved. Most notably, the entire sales mgmt chain, from the VP of Sls to the sales rep. They all knew what they were doing, they all collected commissions, and reaped other rewards, for sales to the wholesalers.

    SLXP needs to fix it's own house, and I have not seen that happening yet.

    When a CFO comes in, expect a nice pop.

  • Reply to

    Grand Jury Subpoena

    by baba_booyah Dec 9, 2014 10:31 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Dec 9, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    You guys are all off base. They have generic drugs, they can raise or lower prices as they want, and the govt can't do a thing. That has been settled many times.

    They are being subpoenaed under Sherman Anti-trust. A related law is the Robinson-Patman act. Sherman forbids collusion, and R-P is all about price fixing.

    I agree that little will come of this, but the govt has shown they will pursue these "politically correct" cases to the very end.

    Justice dept has 117K employees, they need to cut that in half. This about that, the Justice Dept has more employees (not to mention contractors, of which there are thousands), and the largest US corps rarely have even 100K. AAPL does not have 100K.

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