JMO, but all bios are down hard on the BIIB news, REGN being down just 4 or 5 is almost like being up a little!!! GILD off 2.55, CELG off 2.50, etc, etc.
well, face it. we are all thinking/guessing out loud. But, in this case, AMGN and REGN have been closely working with the FDA, and the Euro agencies, on these drugs, and since they are not statins, and since they treat diseases that are so prevalent, there is no way they come this far without getting approved.
There could be a temp drop of more than 35 bucks with a restrictive label, but with the Euro approvals, that would be temp only. And a good buy point.
But, try this, if it sells off, and ESPR also sells off, buy ESPR. I bot ESPR on the last drop, at 75, it hit 100 on Monday, now about 96.
Personally, I want a sell off, that's a way to make more money!!
The posters on this MB don't understand a thing, just from reading the other posts.
REGN will get approval, it's about 99.5% assured. That means nothing.
The issue is the label restrictions. A broad label will move REGN much higher, a restrictive label might take 30 or 40 bucks off the price.
AMGN will get the same treatment, despite their PDUFA being a few weeks later on. Everyone will expect Amgn's label to mirror REGN's label. Bcse AMGN has so much more diversified revenue, the % change in AMGN will be a lot less than REGN.
A safety hedge would be to buy REGN puts at 520 or so. Just FYI, I have held REGN since 100, so I am doing nothing but watching the show.
So glad I got out early. I keep watching it, MDVN will be bought out at some point, but the downward action is really bad.
I watch the analyst estimates closely. The 2015 estimated have dropped from over 3/sh just 90 days ago to 1.64/sh now.
With 11 analysts, that says they agree that MDVN is not being as successful as was anticipated. If it were just 2 or 3, I would be suspicious, but not with 11. Plus, that's 1/2 of what they earned last yr!!!
There will come a time to re-enter, but for now, everything else is so how, I can ignore MDVN. I'm up over 50% in RTRX over the last 2 months, and it's been 2 months since I sold MDVN!!
tks, it's good to be normal!!
And it's good to have HZNP and DEPO shrs. It's been a great 30 days for biotech investing. I even added heavily to my DEPO on the first day of the price wars, when it dipped to near 27. 10% in a couple days is just fine with me. I see 33 coming this week!
Great last 30 days, I am in the DEPO take out, and I am in the KYTH take out, but there doesn't seem to be any action beyond the initial offer by ACT/now AGN there.
Lots of winners, anyone have any suggestions? My list is very long, but I am glad to share it.
I own both too. Another point that has not been mentioned is the taxes DEPO pays, and the tax rate HZNP enjoys.
If you look at the numbers, and can come to the thot that the DEPO business will pay $20M/yr less in taxes (and that is a guess, and maybe a low guess), and that 20M goes to the bottom line, and it gets a 20 multiple, that is another 400M in potential value.
On a 1.7b deal (as was proposed), and additional 400M in mkt cap potential is pretty significant.
I have little respect for the DEPO mgmt, I only entered when it dropped. Even if you love the DEPO team, there is no way you can make up for the tax efficiency they will get as part of HZNP.
Help me out here, wasn't the timeline for getting some part of the acctng issues settled by the end of July? Weren't they committing to get 2014 done by then, and then get 2015 Q1 done by Aug/sept?
Anyone have an idea of where we stand on this?
If you look at the charts for the biotecg ETFs, you will see they are in decline. If you look at the charts for a 2 yr period, you will see that they rarely correct just a little, they usually go down at least to the 21 da SMA.
If that pattern repeats itself, the biotech group has a long way to drop still. If that happens, ESPR could see 75 again.
I sold 1/2 today on the pop, shd have sold it all. Now I wait for a buy signal, not from ESPR, but from the ETFs.
Ha! Do you know me? I tell people that I live the life of a hermit! By choice.
But I would note the terrific price action today, which I directly attribute to the increased EPS estimates.
I read the MBs on all the stocks I own, which is very many, I have no very large positions. Most the discussion has nothing to do with the ST or LT prospects of the company. Like non-GAAP earnings.
Read the MDVN MB, it's a joke, but people post there endlessly about some fantasy guy who predicts MDVN's price.
I have NP with exchanging ideas, but I just tire of all the posts that are, from an investing POV, totally useless.
highlight story in Sat (ie, Monday) IBD. Based on the Fri price movement, someone might have know the story was coming...
Hey, I'll offer my thots! I am very surprised, and happy. I saw an analyst note that recommended ALXN bcse of the deal being close to being done. And the GEVA pipeline being solid.
Whatever the reason, I never thot it would get up so high so soon, but, for reference, I have about 10 biotechs that are ahead of themselves.
Last, I also have a few rare disease plays, and they are also ahead of themselves. RTRX, RARE, and DYAX are all richly, perhaps more than that, overvalued. But like ALXN, I am not selling, and I am also resilient to any selling in those stocks.
In a year, today's prices will look like bargains...
I hate takeovers.
If this did not happen, and we held for a year, the stock would certainly be over 100.
It would have gotten to 75 by the time they announced Q3, sometime in Oct.
So what are we getting paid for? A lousy 2 Qs of the success we have waited for?
I will not sell my shrs, and see the details. Can a competing bid come in?
I sold my SLXP before the competing bid came in, gave up 10/sh. I'll wait on this one.
maybe, but also maybe someone with 300k or 500K shrs knows something we don't, and was willing to dump those shrs this AM without regard to the price.
I am careful with buying dips for which there is no known reason. You could be right, this could be a gift, but it is also possible that a large shareholder knows something we don't.
By "another good Q" I hope you don't mean another lousy Q, with the really lousy CC, that came last Q.
They missed EPS and Rev, and on the conf call, they were completely downbeat. Made it sound like Soliris was going generic in a few days, it was so awful.
So maybe this Q will be better, they better play up the potential for GEVA, they overpaid by so much!!
Most the drivel on MBs has little effect on the near term stock price. It really confounds me why people engage in those debates.
What drives near term SP is news, and earnings. I would note to those who go on about the diff between GAAP and adjusted EPS (how long has that debate raged, is any of it new news?), the (non-GAAP) est for AMAG have been raised again.
The non-GAAP EPS, which is what IBES reports (and YHOO reprints) for 2016 was $5.45/sh 90 days ago, $6.82/sh 7 days ago, and now stands at $7.27#$%$ a PE of just 15, AMAG will be over 100 next yr, if not sooner.
That is a strong indicator that AMAG will perform well going fwd, mkt conditions permitting.
Sounds great, I own every stock mentioned in this thread.
HZNP looks great this yr, but I bot it on the drop back in Aug 2014 when the PBMs said they would not carry Vimovo, or whatever the drug is called. I bot it bcse they also have Actimune, which is the drug they are submitting for FA, the rare disease. That's still a year or more away, but a $500K+ mkt at hi margins, with no competition. For most of last yr, holding HZNP was an exercise in patience.
EGRX has been a monster stock for over a year. That run is close to ending, as far as % upside that could happen.
AMAG is a 1 trick pony, and they bot that pony. It is the least viable long term play of this group. Very good pony, but just one, and they borrowed money to buy it, so they have a lot of debt.
FOLD dropped to 10 in late Apr, that's where I entered. Easy buy in the rare disease field. I added after the ALXN/GEVA deal.
SUPN is new to me, I just bot early this week, call me lucky on it!!
My small cap plays are doing excellent, my large cap plays are doing lousy, like CELG and ALXN.
Hope u r right, but history suggest otherwise...
Lat yr, there was plenty of take over talk, ALXN was at 180 in Feb last yr, higher than it is now, but the BOD et al at ALXN were clear that they didn't want to sell.
Same mgmt, same BOD, what has changed?
But, as I said, I hope u r right.