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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

soflaturtle 172 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 29 minutes ago Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    vrx, mnk endp

    by topgunbioinvestor 20 hours ago
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 1 hour 29 minutes ago Flag

    " I thought IBB would hit 250 and we did. we re-tested low 250's again today and held. "

    Sounds like you think we are at a bottom. The casual candlestick analyst would look at the Friday candle, and think there's more downside.

    I am a bear on the mkt, and bios will perform along with the technology mkt, as it did on Fri when other groups, totally unrelated to bio, were getting hammered. So, for no real reason, bios were sold off like the cloud stocks. Just amazing, bcse while people talk about bio valuations, they are really fairly conservative, while the cloud stocks are still, even after all the selling, in rarefied space as to P/E, P/S, or any other metric.

    Which is why I expect the prices for that group to get more rational, ie, much lower. That can't be good for the Nasdaq.

    I'd love you to be right, but I just don't see it, not in the technicals, not in the ERs that have come out, not in the macro issues that plague the market.

    But I do hope you are right.

  • Reply to

    HZNP still at risk?

    by soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 12:04 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    not so smart with BIS. As I trimmed my bios, I trimmed BIS. Right now, I have none of it. My bad!!

    But I did sell REGN at 500+, it was my largest bio position! My only bio position right now is EBS. Sold HZNP yesterday.

    I really hope this doesn't happen, but today might not be the big sell off, it could be the preclude to the really big drop. My IRAs have been 99% cash for weeks.

    Only doing day trade, got a buck out of LCI today, and 60 cents out of AKRX. Just activity to keep my interested.

    SUPN the big pop today...VRTX getting closer to my $80 tgt to get some.

  • Reply to

    Global recession

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 5, 2016 12:20 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    I have been so delusional. Everything I posted has come to pass. If you want to just hold HZNP, you are down since Dec 31 by about 20%. If you bot some protection, as I suggested many times, you would be up 50% on that protection.

    I said interest rates, the Fed, the price of oil the WW sovereign debt issues would drive the mkt down.

    Yep, I was delusional on the fcst, and delusional on the value of the protection.

  • Reply to

    Global recession

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 5, 2016 12:20 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    thot you were going on a trip. That would save some people money, if their head cheerleader were gone, maybe they would smarten up and get out of HZNP.

  • Reply to

    Global recession

    by short_is_good_baboly Feb 5, 2016 12:20 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 12:29 PM Flag

    be ready for an attack from the head cheerleader, HZNP paid cash for Crealta. It would have been better to borrow if they could, bcse, I think, cash will be king very soon.

    On the WW recession, maybe you have been listening to the wrong stations, but Brazil has been in a recession for well over a year, and there's about 10 other large countries that are having their GDPs contract, like Russia, Venezuela, and about 1/2 the So American countries.

    I am not concerned about a WW recession, we are in one. My concern is a collapse of the WW sovereign debt market. If that happens, we will get dragged down the drain real fast.

    The idiots on TV, including the fed govs, say there's no recession coming. They are just lying to you, they know that the WW situation is swirling, and we can get sucked down the drain in a very short time.

    To avoid a WW sovereign debt collapse, oil must recover. Energy exports have kept many countries afloat for year, and the lower prices are sinking them now. It's pretty much that simple.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Feb 5, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    Sorry to bother you guys with more caution, but I suggested that you back up any drug/bio position with some BIS, and that was 4 or more weeks ago. YTD, BIS is up over 50%.

    The question for today is what ongoing effect will the carnage in the cloud/SaaS tech stocks have on the drug/bio stocks.

    Look at the current financials for the big losers today, and they are still pretty rich. I never touched DATA or LNKD, and i still think DATA is pretty rich, even after falling 40%.

    the Nasdaq comp is below it's recent lows, but the S&P is still 30 pts above it's recent lows.

    I suspect we need to test that S&P low, and we'll get there by more Nasdaq selling. Probably driven by the same stocks that are dropping today.

    That has to exert more pressure on the entire drug/bio sector.

    Nas off 2% today, IBB off 3%.

    On the other hand, it is incredibly sold off, and HZNP has held up well.

    last, I had posted that FB was my largest position, just in case someone wants to bring that up, I sold at 117, 114, 112, and last night when the LNKD news broke at 109.30. It's under 105 now.

  • Reply to

    we will not go down much furthr

    by usma67korea Feb 3, 2016 10:09 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 3, 2016 11:21 AM Flag

    I applaud your patience, but question the basis for your confidence.

    First, I am amazed that HZNP is green today, which does bolster your case.

    But, I am completely convinced that the pressure on this group is not ending. I think it could go on indefinitely. At least thru the election, maybe well into 2017.

    GL, I have kept my very small position, HZNP was a very large position for me, in both # of shrs and $, when it was over 30, then HRC hit, and the storm has not ended...imo.

  • Reply to

    we will not go down much furthr

    by usma67korea Feb 3, 2016 10:09 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 3, 2016 11:14 AM Flag

    Not sure of single payer? Look around the world, where is there a socialist country without single payer? Socialism is right around our corner, regardless of who gets elected. Along with that will be the disappearance of our 1st and 2nd amendment rights. All the millenials have been brought up in an environment that eschews freedoms, and they will all be voting for a Dem.

  • Reply to

    we will not go down much furthr

    by usma67korea Feb 3, 2016 10:09 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 3, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    I tried to warn you guys...I said to hedge with BIS. I was attacked. Wherever it ends up, I doubt it's going up.

    People on the MB taled about a 50% run that was looming. Pure fantasy.

    Why? Bcse, pretty soon, the Dems will be talking about single payer insurance, and much more aggressive pricing on Medicare.

  • Reply to

    ANAC - Now in the bargain bin

    by danielbillcosby Jan 27, 2016 11:51 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 2, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    IMO, it's not close to the bargain bin.

    If we allocate 1.35B of their mkt cap to the currently approved products (ie, a generous10x P/S ratio, based on 2016 est rev), then th erest is for the value of their pipeline.

    So which biotechs have a $1.8B mkt cap, no approved products, ie, just for their pipeline?

    In the recent selling, those companies have been crushed. I was in ANAC from 70 all the way to 140, and then played in and out for a while, and then got out.

    Now, my idea of bargain bin is 10x 2016 rev plus $1B, or about 25% less than where it is now.

    Nothing against ANAC or the quality of it's products or pipeline, just saying what I think the market is saying.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Feb 2, 2016 1:01 PM Flag

    I want to see under 9.50 before I think about buying, but in this mkt, the SO price and the follow on trade could be a lot lower. Maybe even the SO at 9.70, and it trades as low as 8.50. Anything under 9 is a steal, imo...

  • Reply to

    MA AG

    by samiam3939 Jan 30, 2016 9:32 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 31, 2016 1:50 PM Flag

    pdufa, I agree 150%, if that's possible. Where my views seem to diverge from most is that I think this will continue for a very long time. Maybe years.

    If you read the prezos from the recent JPM bio conf, and do the aggregate math, there's billions of $ worth of new drugs coming out, or looking for FDA approval.

    As a matter of public policy, the govt sat they can't afford that. (ps, while they can't afford 37K for saving a life, they can shell out $5M, in the case in Chicago, for taking a life...). Plus, they can provide these new "immigrants", aka invaders, that much, and more, annually, under various social programs.

    So companies like BLUE, whose products will save the lives of a lot of people who, unfortunately, are probably near 100% covered by Medicade/Medicare, is also getting hurt, bcse the govt wants to figure out how to force GILD to sell to prisons at the same price they sell to India. So BLUE might have zero pricing power.

    For that population, as a matter of public policy, I might ask what number of that HCV population had HCV when they entered the prison, and why don't we have an exclusion on pre-existing conditions? As to the number of people in prisons who contract HCV while in prison, what is being done to stop the flow of drugs into the prisons? We all know none of that is going to amt to anything.

    Last, I used to see threads of socialism all over the place, now I see blatant socialism everywhere. People say we won't elect a guy like BS, but I don't believe that. When the Dems have been asked to differentiate themselves from socialism, they could not.

    But people are still voting for dems, with the full knowledge that they are voting for socialism.

    We are doomed...really.

  • Reply to

    MA AG

    by samiam3939 Jan 30, 2016 9:32 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 31, 2016 7:59 AM Flag

    Geez, you are myopic.

    Her position is that Harvoni treats a population that is, to a large %, not covered by insurance, but rather by government. Specifically, her complaint is that some ridiculous % of the prison pop has HCV.

    Just in case you have been living in a bubble, you do know that there's laws that say that prisoners get more access to drugs/hospitals/healthcare than anyone in our country? You do recall we paid for that sex change operation for that idiot who committed treason? About $400K.

    MA can't afford to pay for Harvoni for that many people. So, her socialist argument is that GILD shd reduce the price to an unsustainable level to treat those inmates.

    This socialist position is shared by many, including at least both the Dem pres candidates.

    First, do you think that the prison pop anywhere in this country is any different? CA is about 10x MA.

    Do you think GILD will be under pressure on this for a long time? Maybe years?

    Do you think that any concession they make won't spread across their pricing spectrum?

    Do you think that this pressure, on this drug, won't spread to other drugs?

    Do you think that the pricing pressure on drugs will go away, magically, any time this yr?

    Do you think that the Dem candidate, if they win, will forget this issues when elected?

    Domicile means nothing. And just so you know, GILD is not in MA, I brought that up bcse so many biotechs are there.

    This kind of price fixing will destroy the dev biotech space, and keep multiples on other drug stocks to a bare minimum as this plays out.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    Once again, I caution you about posting, or thinking, that a big run is in the cards. It is not. A bounce? Perhaps, but a bounce must be sold, we saw that already.

    Pls read up on the letter sent by the MA AG to GILD, then listen to her interview on CNBC. This all happened Th/Fri. It's what we will be dealing with for a very long time, the crush of socialism. And very stupid people.

  • Reply to

    No one home?

    by soflaturtle Dec 4, 2015 4:28 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    plus, I just saw that the analyst ave est for 2016 has just been increased, from 1.87 to 2.04/sh.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 1:40 PM Flag

    he can't be too smart, if the price was 100% lower, it would be zero, but it's really 120% lower...???

  • Reply to

    Yes, HZNP runs witout noticing shorts

    by salmon_the_man Jan 29, 2016 3:56 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    The past is the past, it may never return.

    Read to the letter that the MA AG sent to GILD, listen to the CNBC interview. The gist of it all is that the socialists want to say that anyone is entitled to any drug they need, and if they can't afford it, and the govt can't afford it, then it shd be provided at a minimal cost.

    This pricing pressure may never go away, the socialists want govt control on drug prices.

    All the more disconcerting bcse a lot of biotechs are in MA, she's killing the golden goose and doesn't even know it.

  • Reply to

    No one home?

    by soflaturtle Dec 4, 2015 4:28 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 11:32 AM Flag

    Unlike all biotechs, they do not sell to people, they sell to govts. The easy thesis is that the Army command for bio warfare is a mess (you must have read about their mailing anthrax around the country?), and as a country, we need to step up our biodefense capability. btw, for all it's hyped up work, the CDC is a political morass.

    So it's EBS, INO, and others working on drugs that could save a lot of lives, and avoid panic, shd we come under attack. I think EBS is very much under the radar, but shd be a steady gainer, maybe doubling from here in 2-3 yrs.

    That attack could come naturally (the mosquito thing right now), or from a terrorist blanketing an area with a poison.

    Govts will stockpile what they can, bcse if there's an issue, and the company with the treatment says they can't produce enough, the govt will be blamed to not being proactive.

    The LGND is very much a future investment. LGND is also a great investment, check it's chart against most biotechs.

    Last, you know they are spinning out their non-biodefense business in the next 6 months?

  • Reply to

    Which stocks to sell to buy more HZNP ?

    by cedarburg57 Jan 29, 2016 6:23 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    I wasn't too familiar with MRTX, just peeked at their pipeline and financials. They are 3 yrs and 2 secondary offerings (maybe 3) from revenue. It is my belief that companies that are a long way from success are at the greatest risk.

    Your list is founded on the belief that there's a bounce coming. I would suggest that you sell 1/2 of these stocks on any 10% bounce, but I know you won't, you will believe in the future being more like the past. Just keep in mind that valuations that biotechs had last yr were in a time of capitalism and success, what price will they get in the future, under socialism and failure?

  • Reply to

    Which stocks to sell to buy more HZNP ?

    by cedarburg57 Jan 29, 2016 6:23 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jan 30, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    GL, but what a lousy list.

    The worst is PTX, too much debt, lousy mgmt, no chance to be successful.
    How much are you down on GWPH? It's been in steady decline.
    You need to know what BLUE is trying to develop (SCD), and think about the MA AG efforts against GILD, and think about what that does to BLUE's prospects.
    ACAD another sure loser for you, and how can you know it will recover? I sold mine at the time of the SO.

    REGN was my largest bio holding, I sold 1/2 at 540, the other 1/2 at 500. I'm in no hurry to re-enter, but REGN is a great company. Their cholesterol drug has not gotten off to a good start, many sais it would become a $2B drug, right now, I am having trouble seeing even $1B.

    It is impossible to know when and how this all shares out, but it is current populist bible that drugs are overpriced, and all politicians, and now state AGs, are in attack mode. I know everyone says this has come and gone before, but it never came with 3 of the leading pres candidates on that bandwagon. And with so much populist belieft that people shd get whatever drugs they need, and someone else shd pay for them.

    A rising tide will lift all boats. But, without that rising tide, all biotechs will stay low for a while. I think there will be a dead cat bounce, but no real recovery this year.

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