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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

soflaturtle 146 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Jun 20, 2012
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  • Reply to

    HZNP has ZERO EU exposure Today

    by samiam3939 17 hours ago
    soflaturtle soflaturtle 5 hours ago Flag

    then you are voting for HRC. Whatever Trump would do that's distasteful, he won't ruin this country like HRC will. By far, the lesser of 2 evils.

    Zero EU exposure? Ever hear of currency translation?

  • Reply to

    More LGND softness...

    by soflaturtle Jun 18, 2016 11:13 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 25, 2016 1:53 PM Flag

    Since this post, LGND is down (but not as much as I expected...), and BIS is way up.

    Brexit was one of my many fears. Now that Brexit is a reality, many (ie, almost everyone) are saying that mkts could be down for the next few months. If you have a Schwab account, you got some news about this just yesterday or today. They say months of lower prices. I don't get it, but I am repeating what everyone seems to be saying.

    My bad, I got out of BIS and my QID on Wed when all the talking heads said the Brexit would fail. (those are the same talking heads that say mkts could be down for months, so consider that too)

    I still like LGND, but I am fearful that mkts could have a very tuff next few months, and would not be surprised to see them all lower, and LGND a lot lower.

    NP in LGND, and as of yesterday, a very minimal exposure to biotech/drug plays. I won't try again until at least mid-summer. If you are still holding, consider the BIS hedge, or put in protective stops, or buy some puts, and GL.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 25, 2016 9:38 AM Flag

    From 2.68 to 2.48. In my experience, the first reduction is usually not the last.

  • Reply to

    reiterate guidance

    by soflaturtle Jun 16, 2016 4:41 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    I don't think a patent award to a small cap play like SUPN will move the needle. We need an analyst to come out with some new guidance to move it over 20. Just my opinion.

    The basic thot is that SUPN continues to execute, and in time, we will be rewarded.

    I did add a few shrs this AM.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    CDC says they want to have 25M doses, that's the key bad data point. They seem willing to have less inventory thru the next 5 yrs.

    So they retire what goes off the freshness date, and just buy 5M more each yr.

    5M/yr, 5 yrs, plus the 1M/yr that the military uses (per the Chardan note), and you get to about 29M.

    I see this as a very big change for EBS, and I am not sure the stock will recover. I also think that rfp quantity was leaked to some mkt participants, which is why the stock was dropping in the week before the RFP was released.

    I got out as soon as it started dropping, and I am not getting back in.

  • Reply to

    Chardan comments

    by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 8:16 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    btw, in addition to the 8M/yr shelf life needs, Chardan said the military consumes 1M doses. So they imply that the min need is for 9M/yr.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 23, 2016 8:16 AM Flag

    Out this AM, they say the sell off is overdone...but.

    Seems that the last 5 yr contract was for 45M doses, and this contract is for 29M. Thus the selling.

    Chardan notes that the shelf life for biothrax is 4 yrs, and that's a factoid that is news to me, and good news. They say that 8M doses a year need to be renewed just to maintain the current stockpile. 8m/yr for 5 yrs is 40M doses (my extrapolation), with no build up in the stockpile. Chardan seems skeptical about the 29M.

    They also note that the dev contract could be bid by anyone (the supply is a sole source contract). While EBS is well positioned to win that, there will be other bidders.

    Now I know why analysts were expecting a lot of growth next yr, they were anticipating a growth in the stockpile, while also needing to replenish the doses that had gone over their shelf life.

    I got this from a summary of the Chardan research that is available to Fidelity users, and came off midnighttrader.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 2:29 PM Flag

    While I am careful about referring anyone to SA, I usually keep my largest holdings in a list at SA, and they notify you when there's an article about that company.

    The authors are individuals who get paid by the number of reads of their articles. Some are good, some are pure spam.

    If you sign up for NFLX or GILD, you will get emails every day. People post articles about those stocks bcse a lot of people own them, and read everything. I would suggest that 99% of the GILD articles have been wrong/trash.

    LGND is rarely written about, it's a smaller audience, so no one is writing about them

    Remember, on SA, no one is writing to put out good info, they are all writing to get views, which is how they get paid.

    But I do it anyway...

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    EBS had been an incredibly strong and stable stock for a couple months. Then, starting June 9, the selling started. Did someone know something?

    I usually hate conspiracy theories, but there was a 10%+ drop in front of this collapse, and I find it hard to believe that it's a coincidence.

  • Reply to

    Velocity trading back & forth

    by kenholmes59 Jun 22, 2016 11:42 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    here's another thot...I have been in talks with the gov on sole source procurements. It's a tricky business, they reserve the right to audit your financials, and your facility, to control any price gouging. That audit can be exhaustive, or superficial, depending on the procurement officer and the variance of your bid from a historical perspective.

    Usually, the govt, as much as anyone, understands that costs go up. If I looked at the consensus analyst estimates, that seemed a little higher than the qty estimates plus any cost increase.

    So again, I am totally confused. I didn't really expect the 2.66/sh that the analysts were showing for 2017, but this drop implies a 2/sh or less.

  • Reply to

    Velocity trading back & forth

    by kenholmes59 Jun 22, 2016 11:42 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:47 AM Flag

    until I know why it went down so much, I really don't care where it is. This drop confuses me totally.

  • Reply to

    it's a slaughter...

    by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 9:43 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    as I said, hard to know what's going on. A couple months ago, EBS was my largest holding, and when it was above 44, I trimmed it down about 65%. Then sold some more at 40.

    Then after it opened off a buck and went lower, I sold it all, at about 2.25/sh off yesterday's close, on the average.

    What causes this drop is well beyond my imagination...but it shows you how risky even a seemingly bullet proof company like EBS can be.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 22, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    RFP comes out, I ahve to guess the qtys being requested are well below what was expected, stock off 5 bucks.

    When there is so little coverage, it's hard to know what's up...

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 18, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    I had tried to post a msg on this subject, and see it went into the yhoo ether...it was more exhaustive ands detailed than this summary.

    Basically, I was trying to say that BBH, the ETF indicator that I watch, had dropped to the point that it gave up 60% of the gain since the Feb lows.

    If LGND gave up 60% of it's gains, it would be at 103.

    With the Brexit issues, and the US economy being shaky, I have to think there's no rebound at least until the Brexit vote, and I have no idea what that vote will be, or how the mkt will react.

    I am out for now, and suggest if you are still long, maybe consider a BIS hedge position.

  • soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 5:46 PM Flag

    I am not sure where you get this misinformation from, but it again is way off.

    If they are referring to Q2 of 2016, I would note that the IBES consolidated est for EPS for Q2, an average from 3 analysts, had DROPPED 46% in the last 60 days.

    It was $.73/sh, and is now $.39/sh.

    Pls stop posting entirely, all your info is misinformation. Or lies?

  • Reply to

    Earnings estimates have been revised up for LGND

    by djhmk4 Jun 17, 2016 3:11 PM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:36 PM Flag

    In the interest of full and honest info, in fact, the 2016 and 2017 eps est have been lowered in the last 7 days...

    2016 from 3.33 to 3.30.

    2017 from 5.10 to 5.03.

    If you insist on pumping, could you pls pump honest and current info??

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:03 PM Flag

    forget EGRX too. It's at 10x this yr, 8x next yr eps est.

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    ANIP...

  • Reply to

    LGND is a cash cow & undervalued

    by djhmk4 Jun 13, 2016 10:44 AM
    soflaturtle soflaturtle Jun 17, 2016 3:02 PM Flag

    GILD/HZNP/MNK/ANIOP/LCI/SCMP/ENDP/ABBV

    That's off the top of my head, some less than 10, a couple slightly over 10.

    LGND at 112, I will re-enter at well under 110, which I expect we'll see next week, maybe even lower. LGND off just 3% today, many bios off more than that.

  • soflaturtle by soflaturtle Jun 16, 2016 4:41 PM Flag

    In a presser today re Trokendi, SUPN reiterated 2016 rev and operating income guidance.

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