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Gray Television Inc. Message Board

sofyam263 142 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 14, 2014 3:01 PM Member since: Sep 18, 2008
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  • Reply to

    NG highs are often in the Off-Season

    by thouchartist Dec 14, 2014 1:03 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 14, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Well, more power to him. He is doing better than me. I'm only up 147% for the year and I expect I've been wrong a few dozen times so far.

    I was under the impression chart was implying that tech analysis (charting) trumps fundamentals. I've crossed paths with many who strictly believe in only using one or the other. I was just trying to say it has been my experience if you use both, by applying tech analysis to only fundamentally favorable conditions for long positions, you will more than likely increase your batting average. However, one must keep in mind the probability of finding these conditions simultaneously (stars aligning) is much lower, therefore reducing trade opportunities.

    By no means was I questioning charts abilities. I will say blue, I have never met a trader who has actually been wrong only once.

  • Reply to

    NG highs are often in the Off-Season

    by thouchartist Dec 14, 2014 1:03 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 14, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    Yes, but it is twice as nice when the stars align and you get both, oversold with power demand. The right recipe for a increasing the odds of a successful trade.

  • Reply to

    2 years... UNG at $40 or higher.

    by empire2008 Dec 12, 2014 3:57 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 14, 2014 6:36 AM Flag

    blueridge,

    I noticed the opposite of gasl, gasx, was done away with by Direxion at the end of September. If you are holding gasl and they do the same to it, do you know what happens to your shares?

  • Reply to

    2 years... UNG at $40 or higher.

    by empire2008 Dec 12, 2014 3:57 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 13, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    I would say more than 2 but less than 5 years.

  • Reply to

    Next week (week of 12/15)

    by sox_green_monster Dec 12, 2014 3:05 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 13, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    So is mine blckflag. I'm beginning to think the weather channel has a short position. Spewing lies about warm weather trying to drive it lower. Nor would I put it past Wall Street to have all the weathermen on their payroll. This could explain why they are all wrong so often in predicting the weather.

  • sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 13, 2014 8:29 AM Flag

    Don't sweat it connto120. This is the norm for shorts. It has become so common I've become desensitized to it. They are all over the small oil companies right now. I would be concerned if they weren't crying. It is funny how they never show up until after the fact. Go figure.

  • Reply to

    NG monthly chart

    by boatpeople007 Dec 12, 2014 3:26 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 12, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Wasn't that the year people were wearing shorts in January?

  • sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 12, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    I'm Mister White Christmas, I'm Mister Snow, I'm Mister Icicle, I'm Mister 10 Below.

  • Reply to

    Rebalancing

    by thouchartist Dec 12, 2014 9:25 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 12, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Beds, Furniture, Electronics, TV's. They target the lower end market and sell on credit which is why they have tanked but I believe they can turn it around. The chart looks like a typical dead cat play.

  • Reply to

    Rebalancing

    by thouchartist Dec 12, 2014 9:25 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 12, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    I would buy CONN before I would short oil.

  • Reply to

    BUYOUT!

    by jaavmickey33 Dec 10, 2014 4:15 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 12, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    Something else which may be of interest. The 30% stock drop at the end of August traded roughly 11 times average volume. The more recent 45% stock drop traded 7 times roughly the same average volume. A much larger drop with much lower volume. Things that make you go hmmmm.

  • Reply to

    BUYOUT!

    by jaavmickey33 Dec 10, 2014 4:15 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 11:53 PM Flag

    It's possible jaav. I worked for a company who adopted a poison pill consisting of paying executives large bonuses should a hostile takeover occur. Shortly after that, the Board cut the dividend they were paying and bought about 20% of the shares outstanding back at Dutch auction. Then, it wasn't long before an announcement came out the company was being bought out. Point here being the dividend cut and the stock buyback were beneficial to the company wanting to buy. There is no doubt the board was working with the company wanting to buy them, making it easier for them to do so. So, yes,...I can see where pulling in charges and tanking the stock could be playing into a potential buyers hands. I would really like to see a stock buyback with the price down here. Buying back and retiring shares from retail holders while the takeover candidate hangs on to his is one way to lower the amount needed to purchase the company. Time will tell.

  • sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 7:34 PM Flag

    EOG..Isn't that the old Enron Oil and Gas company? Didn't many of their executives make out like bandits with the old Enron by dumping shares before it crashed?

  • Reply to

    /NG support

    by boatpeople007 Dec 11, 2014 2:46 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    As I recall it was the distance between the bollinger and the moving average line. This was a few years back and I never used it myself but it did look promising. It just didn't fit my style of trading. It appeared to be for longer term trades which I never had the patience for. I toyed with it for him when I was using Tradestation software years ago. As I recall it may have been like a 10 or 14 day simple moving average plotted with the normal default BB deviation. If you measure the distance between the MA and the Upper BB as the distance closes and stays closed it can indicate an approaching longer term upward trend in the stock. I don't have trading software anymore or I would experiment with it for you. You could build your own custom indicators with Tradestation which was cool..

  • Reply to

    /NG support

    by boatpeople007 Dec 11, 2014 2:46 PM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    I know a guy who measures the area between a moving average and the bollinger band, then plots that point as a linear technical indicator. It appears to be just as good as any other tech indicator out there. Seems to work best for longer term swings though. Myself, I like to find the price dips below the lower bollinger band that are perpendicular to the band and preferably on a longer basing pattern on fundamental strong companies. Probability on these are low but batting average is high if you can find them. Usually a 3 to 5% gain on a 2 or 3 day trade.

  • Reply to

    Storage Report

    by rrr3511 Dec 11, 2014 10:52 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Of course its Vegas. The whole market is Vegas. You can play slots..roulette..blackjack or poker..The idea is to play/position when the odds are in your favor, in any market. Cut your losers short and let your winners run. I actually have a trade system whose criteria returns profit 75% of the time. When those conditions are met, you bet I take a position. Given a choice of being long UGAZ or DGAZ, I would say the odds here, sitting in front of winter, would be with UGAZ. The warmer temps are priced in which is why it is at $8 and not $18. Is this guaranteed? No. Just play the odds with a small portion of your portfolio.

  • Reply to

    6-10 Day forecast from 6 days ago was wrong

    by anastass Dec 11, 2014 7:19 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Many in the northeast use oil and propane for heating marty, but for electricity it is nuke and Nat Gas. I moved from CT 11 years ago and back then electricity was bumping .13 a kw for residential which is why many have oil tanks in there basement for heating but the State Environmental Regs have pushed electric toward NG vs coal. Northeast Utilities sold off their "Filthy Five" coal plants years ago in prep for the EPA crackdown. Here in Kentucky it is the exact opposite, .07 kw today for electric and coal plants everywhere. I expect KY to start the shift toward NG this next year but it will take 4 to 5 years to get it built out.

  • Reply to

    Chart

    by gasdudette Dec 11, 2014 12:53 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 11, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    It means to stroke it or play with it I think. I dunno...Here in Kentucky we "Cock" the hammer and "Pull" the trigger.

  • sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 10, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    I'm building one. In at 19.36 average so far. Will more than likely be buying more over the next few days. The ticker looked like big boys sucking up the shares as they fall.

  • Reply to

    Short covering Before the number

    by theblueridgetrader Dec 10, 2014 11:26 AM
    sofyam263 sofyam263 Dec 10, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    Sitting on the fence, holding what I've got, waiting on tomorrows number. If it tanks I'll double down, if it doesn't, I will let it run.

GTN
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