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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

soldat4800 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 22, 2014 6:05 PM Member since: May 29, 2000
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  • soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 22, 2014 6:05 PM Flag

    McGowen must feel pretty good about himself.

  • Reply to

    Historical Lows

    by jomar2298 Oct 9, 2014 2:00 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 9, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    VII was trading at a 40% discount to shareholders equity prior to the IQinVision madness. Backing out the $0.55 dividend and dividing by the new share count, the Vicon shareholders equity is around $1.60 a share - a 40% discount to that is $0.96 a share. But that values IQinVision at nothing. It might actually be worth less than nothing - a drowning man has little use for an anchor. Nonetheless, I just put in a limit order for 2000 shares at $1.51. I doubt it will be filled unless someone has to get out and doesn't care what they get for it.

    Note how worried I am that information gleaned from a yahoo message board will affect trading in even the thinnest traded stock.

  • Reply to

    Nice price action

    by alwayshoping Oct 6, 2014 11:23 AM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 9, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Can you help me understand your point? Prior to the Ferguson incident, VII traded around 1,500 shares a day. After the Ferguson incident, even though it won't add any sales volume to VII, VII has been trading 200,000 shares a day. Why do you think that the last month's volume will be more typical going forward than the five years of trading prior to that? People have recently acquired large blocks of stock. If the trading volume returns to 1,500 shares a day, they will be trapped in those positions. How is that not important for future price action? At what point does VII become a screaming buy as people liquidate for tax loss purposes?

  • Reply to

    These aren't just new 52 week lows

    by alwayshoping Oct 8, 2014 10:06 AM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 8, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    You really need to add back in the $0.55 dividend and adjust historical prices.

    I'm tempted to try and catch the falling knife but:

    1. Since IQinVision didn't get to name the new CEO, that tells me it was a merger of two drowning companies clinging to each other and not a white knight riding to the rescue.

    2. The next quarterly report, and probably the one after that, is going to be dismal due to restructuring charges.

    3. In five months the shareholders who were locked up (and agreed not to hedge, though I'd be surprised if some of them didn't hedge somehow) will be able to sell and that will add 5 million shares to the potential float.

    4. Apparently it's going to take a lot of work to merge incompatible product lines.

    5. Years ago, someone called Vicon a Roach Motel - you can check in, but you can never leave - because the liquidity isn't there. I think that's pretty accurate.

    So, it will probably be next February before it bottoms unless there's some major good news. And even then, I don't expect liquidity to return.

  • Reply to

    I got filled 10,000 shares today at $2.12 average

    by cnlg1000 Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 6, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    If you managed to catch a falling knife, congrats. That's typically worth a lot of money.

    I wouldn't be vacuuming your own #$%$ just yet though.

  • Reply to

    I got filled 10,000 shares today at $2.12 average

    by cnlg1000 Sep 30, 2014 3:10 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Oct 1, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    the problem people will have is getting out. Three months ago the stock traded 2500 shares on a good day. There were days where no shares traded. How are you going to get out of a 10,000 share position without taking another 10% haircut when there are no buyers?

  • Reply to

    Ford Equity Research Upgrades VII to HOLD

    by mitchpit11 Sep 29, 2014 8:48 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 30, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    you understand that in analyst speak, hold means cover your short, not actually go long. Sell means short, hold means cover, buy means hold, strong buy means buy. I've never seen an analyst say strong sell (maybe Ackerman) but I suppose that would mean naked short and mortgage the house to buy puts.

  • Reply to

    Short Squeeze in the making.

    by jomar2298 Sep 22, 2014 10:16 AM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 29, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    NASDAQ reported 500,000 shares short as of September 15th (2,600 or so short on September 1st). Just because you can't borrow $2 stocks doesn't mean someone with deep pockets can't. The MM can also short shares. The big problem is that if the stock goes to zero, they can put off paying taxes on the gain forever so there's some temptation to hold onto the short. But given it was a small gain and there are other sucker rallies to short into, they've probably covered by now.

  • Reply to

    SFCL & REG article

    by lafeet333 Sep 22, 2014 10:37 AM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 23, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    There was an article in the Economist about the French ITER fusion reactor. It requires 80,000 km of superconducting wire. I'm sure that's 1st generation, but still. If it ever works ("Fusion, the energy source of the future as it always will be."), that's a lot of wire.

  • Reply to

    Short Squeeze in the making.

    by jomar2298 Sep 22, 2014 10:16 AM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 22, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    According to the NASDAQ website, the short interst went from 2,000 shares on 8/15 to 501,000 shares on 8/29 (share price was 2.13 on 8/15 and 4.01 on 8/29).

    So, even though you and I and probably everyone else reading this wouldn't be allowed to borrow a stock selling for less than $5, there are people who can and did - and probably shorted a lot more in the early part of September. So, theoretically, a short squeeze is possible.

    The IQiNvision guys could theoretically buy up the entire float and then call the shares which would be embarrassing for anyone short. That happened with a fake company earlier this year. Shares went from a nickel to over a hundred dollars because the shorts had to cover (their shares were called) and the only people selling were the people who had all the shares. The SEC stepped in an halted trading. But the people who had borrowed shares and couldn't cover were still paying interest on $100 shares they had borrowed at $1 or so last I heard. Volkswagen did the same thing to people who had shorted Porsche.

  • Reply to

    IQinVision Finacials Look Quite Decent

    by mitchpit11 Sep 19, 2014 6:37 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 20, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    according to the prospectus - http://www.vicon-security.com/Collateral/Documents/English-US/Financials/424B3%20Prospectus%207-17-14%20for%20printing-revised.pdf

    the total combined share holders equity of the 2 companies was $27 million and then they paid out almost $3 million in cash, so really, it's selling for about total shareholder's equity.

    Both companies lost money last year, but I think with consolidation, they'll lose less money this year - they'll still be losing money.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Let's see...

    by alwayshoping Sep 19, 2014 12:04 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 19, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    To be fair, there are 9 million shares now, so the market cap is around $23MM which is 2.5 times what VII's was and they paid a $0.55 dividend to the VII shareholders as of last July - I sold all of my shares, at a loss, at the market open the day it peaked, so I look on this entire debacle as a godsend.

    Has anyone ever seen a financial statement from the other company? And if you hadn't seen the financials of the other company, why would you invest in Vicon? Apparently they had about the same sales as VII, but I suspect even less profit (larger loss) since the new CEO isn't from that company. Speaking of the new CEO, he seems like a good guy and at least he's not a CPA like Darby, though he's fairly old and lives in Oregon.

    I would get back in, now that it's been cut in half, but in six months Darby will be able to sell his shares (I think he has around 500,000) and the owners of the other company will have 4.5 million they can sell. So, unless the company reports good financials next quarter, I suspect you'll be able to get in way lower than here.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Can someone explain the merger?

    by recap7 Sep 3, 2014 1:44 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 3, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    Hi msnapp82 - I'm curious how you got to $5.95 (net of the dividend) as the break even point for IQ's owners? That implies IQ was worth around $39 million (assuming Vicon was worth book value minus the dividend), but IQ was privately held and I didn't see any sales numbers in the 8k (didn't read it that closely). Do you have any idea what the revenue of the combined company will be?

    Thanks

  • Reply to

    Can someone explain the merger?

    by recap7 Sep 3, 2014 1:44 PM
    soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 3, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    A privately held company was acquired by Vicon (the combined company has 9 million shares, so the market cap is now north of $50 million). In reality, the board of directors is made up of 3 Vicon and 3 IQnVision directors so it's really a merger of equals. Darby is retiring (which is a good thing) so I assume the IQnVision CEO will run the combined company (don't know if that's a good thing or not, can't be worse though).The IQnVision owners didn't have to go through an IPO so it was an efficient way to realize the value of their company without selling out.

    IQnVision and Vicon make the exact same products (cctv cameras) so I don't think the merger accomplishes much. IQnVision is west coast and Vicon is east coast so maybe there will be some sales gains as they begin to cross-sell. I imagine they will begin to combine their product lines and manufacturing and eliminate surplus admin people. So there will be some huge hits to earnings over the next few quarters. After that, they should be more efficient than either company was before.

    It might be a good long term investment. But I got out completely so thank you very much for the 177% gain over the past few months (I still lost money). I hope it does go to the moon for you and I will try not to second guess myself if it does.

  • soldat4800 soldat4800 Sep 3, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    It looks to me, and I sold all of my shares at the open, like IQnVision went public by giving half their company to Vicon for whatever Vicon is worth - though I didn't read the 8k, so maybe they can issue another 10,000,000 shares to themselves.

    I don't understand it. IQnVision sells the same things that Vicon does. Is there anyone in the cctv business that can explain why this makes sense?

  • soldat4800 soldat4800 Aug 26, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    If you go back to February 6, 2007 on this message board, you'll see basically the same action, except then it was based on a good earnings report. Having been a shareholder for a long time, I tend to side on the pump and dump side. But it's still trading close to book value ($3.74). Though, a year ago, book value was $4.70.

    I'm hoping the new management team will replace Darby (who's retiring) with someone competent. They should be making money.

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