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ConocoPhillips Message Board

sollid_companiess_only 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 22, 2014 11:41 AM Member since: Aug 24, 2012
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  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 7, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Patiently waiting for the completion of the Panama Canal expansion. The completion will be the catalyst that sends the pps of the Eastern railroads upward. It may take about a year after the shipping lanes are opened, but when they do watch out for CSX and NSC in terms of increased business, revenues, and profits.

    The completion date currently is estimated to only be nine months away, at present. Good luck to all Eastern RR investors, your time is close at hand.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 7, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    I'm patiently waiting, biding my time with NSC and CSX shares.

    Knowing that the time for the completion of the Panama Canal expansion is close at hand. The completion will be the catalyst that sends the pps of the Eastern railroads upward. It may take about a year after the shipping lanes are opened, but when they do watch out for NSC and CSX in terms of increased business, revenues, and profits.

    The completion date currently is estimated to only be nine months away, at present. Good luck to all Eastern RR investors, your time to prosper is close at hand.

  • sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 7, 2014 12:54 PM Flag

    And, while I'm patiently biding my time, I'll gladly accept CSX's generous dividend payouts and the gradual increases in the pps. I'm in no hurry.

  • sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 7, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    And, while I'm patiently biding my time, I'll gladly accept NSC's generous dividend payouts and the gradual increases in the pps. I'm in no hurry.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 7, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Norfolk Southern had a disappointing first quarter, but the railroad posted record results in 2013 for both revenue and earnings.

    The first quarter of 2014 was a challenge for all railroads due to harsh winter conditions, so investors and analysts will be watching Norfolk Southern's second quarter closely for signs that it's recaptured the momentum of last year. The railroad demonstrated particular strength in its intermodal segment, growing revenues and traffic volume by 6% in 2013 -- a potential engine to drive earnings forward this year.

    Norfolk Southern's rail network is also well placed to capitalize on the trend of hauling crude, natural gas and petroleum products by rail, including from North America's shale regions. During its most recent quarter, Norfolk Southern transported 12% more in its chemicals segment -- driven primarily by increased transportation of crude-by-rail. Its network is also well positioned to move Canadian heavy oil to refineries in the U.S. that can process the bitumen that comes out of the Alberta Tar Sands.

    And then there's cash. Norfolk Southern ended the first quarter with just over $1.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, well above the $672 million from the year earlier quarter. Given its strong cash position, investors should be optimistic about a potential dividend raise. Last year, free cash flow rose 34%, prompting a 4% increase in the quarterly dividend. Today, Norfolk Southern offers a dividend yield of 2.1%, one of the best among North America's Tier 1 railroads.

  • Reply to

    Next stop $35

    by hlbtrumpet Jun 8, 2014 12:39 PM
    sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 8, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    " moving freight like crazy"

    That kind of statement doesn't cut any mustard of concrete reasons for investing in CSX. "Moving freight like crazy" is just an ignorant way of saying that you don't have a clue.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 11, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    We're talking about decades of profits and growth for OXY shareholders. Here is an excerpt on OXY's Permian Basin's holdings, from Motley Fool:

    Occidental Petroleum's (NYSE: OXY ) largest U.S. operation is in the Permian Basin of West Texas and southeast New Mexico, where it is the No. 1 oil producer, accounting for 16% of total production. This means its sales and profits are greatly influenced by developments in this region, making it a top selection for investors looking for significant exposure to the Permian Basin.

    Citing the potential of the Permian Basin during its first quarter presentation, Steve Chazen, President & CEO stated: "Permian resources is the cornerstone growth operation for the domestic business. Our substantial acreage position in the Permian gives us significant resource development potential."

    He continued: "We are starting to see the positive results of our horizontal drilling program, expect the resources business to grow production rapidly, similar to what some other operators in the basin have been able to achieve. We believe this business could increase its production by 13% to 16% this year, and in excess of 20% going forward."

    Those are huge gains, and if they translate to profits, as expected, Occidental could have its best days ahead with decades of production expected. One might expect a company with such potential to command a premium, but looking at Occidental's fundamentals that doesn't appear to be the case. In fact, it looks to be downright cheap.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 11, 2014 2:45 PM Flag

    ConocoPhillips ‘Best Opportunity,’ Howard Weil Says
    .
    By Ben Levisohn

    Thinking of buying an oil company? You could do worse than ConocoPhillips (COP), according to the folks at Howard Weil.

    Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesHoward Weil’s Blake Fernandez explains why he prefers ConocoPhillips to other oil companies like Total (TOT) and Chevron (CVX):

    After years of portfolio rationalization, concerns re: dividend coverage, etc. the asset base is now poised to deliver 6- 10% cash flow CAGR through ’17 from a combination of 3-5% production growth and 3-5% margin expansion. Additionally, our confidence in the Company’s unconventional prowess is increasing based on the recent analyst day presentation, higher production targets and efficiency gains in the underlying assets…

    We feel COP has the best opportunity to grow beyond its current valuation multiple as cash flow and EPS increase over the coming years. Once the Company reaches cash flow breakeven (anticipated around ’16 depending on commodity prices) we see an opportunity to re-rate the stock from a dividend yield perspective (COP 3.4% vs. U.S. IOC’s 3% & E&P peer avg 1.4%). We are upgrading from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform based on relative attractiveness to the group. Combining ~10% upside in share price appreciation potential with ~3.4% dividend yield, we believe COP offers ~14% total return from current levels.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 11, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Shares of ConocoPhillips (COP) touched a 52-week high of $81.66 on Jun 10, 2014. The stock closed the session at $81.63, reflecting a stable return of 22.0% over the past three months. The average trading volume for the last three months was 5,539,170 shares.

    The company’s recent performance was backed by a continued portfolio shift to liquids and higher production from new development programs, as well as upstream ventures in key projects. However, this was partially offset by lower oil realizations. ConocoPhillips is progressing on other North American shale plays, including several emerging areas.

    With leading positions in both natural gas and heavy crude oil in North America, as well as a legacy position in the North Sea and growing exposure to lucrative international regions, ConocoPhillips expects to replace reserves and sustain production growth over the long term.

    ConocoPhillips’ initiatives toward liquids-rich plays are gaining momentum through the Eagle Ford, Bakken and Permian plays. The company is also poised to benefit from a pipeline of projects in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), Malaysia, the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Australia, the U.K., Norway, and the Canadian oil sands, apart from the US Lower 48 liquids-rich plays. Oil sands expansion projects are also on track.

    Since Apr 2012, when the company spun off its refining operations to Phillips 66 (PSX), it has delivered total shareholder returns of 22%. With this, ConocoPhillips has shifted its total focus to upstream operations and thus oil and gas prices play a major role in determining its performance. The company plans to grow production by maintaining its growth focus on reserves, through global drilling programs in legacy assets, unconventional assets and major projects.

    Continued in reply to this post.

  • Reply to

    COP Now At 52 Week High

    by sollid_companiess_only Jun 11, 2014 2:56 PM
    sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 11, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Continuation of post:

    ConocoPhillips’ margin growth would also be aided by its shift of production mix to higher-value products. The company expects to spend $16 billion on average annually and will allocate 95% of its capital to investments that deliver above-average margins. The recent activity targets offshore prospects in Australia Angola and Senegal, conventional exploration in Norway and Indonesia, and unconventional exploration in North America, Poland and Colombia.

    GLTA COP Shareholders!

  • sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 12, 2014 6:27 PM Flag

    Unclelarry, a lot depends on how old you are, over 59 1/2 or not. Here are the guidelines for borrowing from a Roth IRA account:

    Borrowing Money

    While you technically cannot "borrow" money from a Roth in the form of a loan like you can from a 401k, you can withdraw and subsequently replace funds prior to reaching age 59 1/2. However, certain restrictions apply to the transaction. The money must be replaced in the account or rolled into another Roth IRA within 60 days of the withdrawal. You are also limited to one transaction of this type within a 12-month period. Unlike a loan, you do not need to pay interest on the amount you withdraw.

    Ramifications

    It is important that you replace the money you borrow within the 60-day window. If you fail to do so and you are under the age of 59 1/2, you may owe a 10 percent penalty and taxes on any earnings you withdraw. The same rules apply if you make more than one withdrawal within a 12-month period; even if you replace these funds within the 60-day window, you will incur the penalty and tax for the second and subsequent transactions.

    Considerations

    As an alternative to borrowing money from your Roth, you can consider taking a straight withdrawal. The IRS allows you to withdraw the full amount of your Roth contributions at any time without taxation or penalties. You can only withdraw the earnings without penalty after you've reached the age of 59 1/2 and if the account has been funded for at least five years, unless you qualify for certain exceptions. For example, if you have a disability or are purchasing a first home, you may be able to withdraw the earnings earlier without penalty.

  • •By holding the dividend at $2.64 after spinning off Phillips 66, Conoco raised its payout ratio from 30% of net profits to 44% of net profits.
    •Most likely, Conoco will try and lower this payout ratio to the 25-30% range over the long term to allow for the capital projects necessary to fund growth.
    •The implication is that, for the next several years, earnings per share may be increasing faster than dividends as the company recalibrates to a more appropriate long-term payout ratio.

    After spinning off Phillips 66 (PSX) in 2012, Conoco (COP) management made an important decision: they chose to keep their dividend at $2.64 per share. This was significant because the removal of Phillips 66 from the Conoco corporate umbrella reduced Conoco's earnings per share from $8.76 in 2011 to $5.91 at the time of the spinoff. In other words, by keeping the payout steady without Phillips 66 on the balance sheet, Conoco effectively raised its dividend payout ratio from 30% in 2011 to 44% after the spinoff.

    Now that Conoco is an exploration and production company, there can be an inclination to get the payout ratio more in line with the 25-30% range rather than the nearly 40-50% range that the company has been in since divesting Phillips 66.

  • According to the International Energy Agency, the global community must invest $48 trillion by 2035 to meet the world's energy needs. Of that, $23 trillion will need to be spent on fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and oil refining. This investment will help to offset declining oil and gas wells, as well as help to meet the growing demand for energy in emerging nations. Needless to say, this is a supertrend that deserves a place in nearly every portfolio. While a number of companies will benefit from this megatrend, I think ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP ) , Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC ) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) are among the best positioned to profit.

    These three companies have energy assets spread around the world, and all three have a plan in place to grow production. ConocoPhillips expects 3%-5% compound annual production growth through 2017, with major growth opportunities beyond that. Anadarko Petroleum expects even higher 5%-7% compound annual production growth through 2020. Finally, Chevron anticipates 20% total production growth from 2013 to 2017, with post-2017 growth projects beginning to emerge.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 14, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    According to the International Energy Agency, the global community must invest $48 trillion by 2035 to meet the world's energy needs. Of that, $23 trillion will need to be spent on fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and oil refining. This investment will help to offset declining oil and gas wells, as well as help to meet the growing demand for energy in emerging nations. Needless to say, this is a supertrend that deserves a place in nearly every portfolio.

    GLTA TPLM shareholders.

  • OXY's shareholders/investors will benefit from this investment in the long term:

    According to the International Energy Agency, the global community must invest $48 trillion by 2035 to meet the world's energy needs. Of that, $23 trillion will need to be spent on fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and oil refining. This investment will help to offset declining oil and gas wells, as well as help to meet the growing demand for energy in emerging nations. Needless to say, this is a supertrend that deserves a place in nearly every portfolio.

  • TPLM's shareholders/investors will benefit from this investment in the long term:

    According to the International Energy Agency, the global community must invest $48 trillion by 2035 to meet the world's energy needs. Of that, $23 trillion will need to be spent on fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and oil refining. This investment will help to offset declining oil and gas wells, as well as help to meet the growing demand for energy in emerging nations. Needless to say, this is a supertrend that deserves a place in nearly every portfolio.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 16, 2014 8:40 AM Flag

    By Lior Cohen | More Articles
    June 15, 2014 | Comments (0)

    Coal has been in the news for the past couple of weeks after the announcement of new restrictions on carbon emissions, which are likely to reduce U.S coal consumption in the coming years. But this year the coal market is actually expected to slowly improve. CSX (NYSE: CSX ) , a transporter of coal, could benefit from the rise in coal demand.

    Elevated natural gas prices have driven the demand for coal in the past several months. Moreover, in 2014, the U.S Energy Information Administration expects coal consumption to increase by 5% year over year. This higher consumption is likely to result in an increase in inventory buildups for coal.

    Coal productionanies is projected to drop this year: Arch Coal estimates its annual coal sold (in tons) to fall by 3.5% compared to 2013. Alliance Resource Partners expects to produce 4% less in 2014 than in 2013.

    But on a larger scale, the expected rise in demand for coal is likely to benefit coal transporters such as CSX. The company's executive vice president and chief financial officer projects CSX's earnings will grow by single-digits in 2014, and by double-digits in early 2015. Part of the rise in sales is due to an increase in the amount of coal transported: "...volume growth has picked up strongly, and we have visibility to several million new tons of domestic coal as inventories are normalizing and natural gas prices have risen."

    Despite the expected rally in coal volume, CSX's revenue from coal declined by 8% in the first quarter of 2014. Most of this drop is due to lower coal exports. Looking forward, however, the ongoing rally in the U.S. coal market could keep driving up the company's revenue in the coming quarters. In the first five weeks of the second quarter, the company's volume transported increased by 9%. if coal consumption picks up by 5%, as the EIA estimates, this could mean a 1% rise in CSX's revenue.

  • This bodes well for ESV investors:

    According to the International Energy Agency, the global community must invest $48 trillion by 2035 to meet the world's energy needs. Of that, $23 trillion will need to be spent on fossil fuel extraction, transportation, and oil refining. This investment will help to offset declining oil and gas wells, as well as help to meet the growing demand for energy in emerging nations. Needless to say, this is a supertrend that deserves a place in nearly every portfolio.

  • sollid_companiess_only by sollid_companiess_only Jun 17, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    In 2013, about 18 months ago, I bought 250 shares of YY at $16.28 per share, a cost basis of $4071. The good news is that these shares have multiplied 4.5 times in value to $74.13, $18.5k. The bad news is that I only bought 250 shares. I feel that the current pps is too high to buy any more shares. But, all in all, YY has been great to me!

  • Reply to

    Chevron Take Out MRO?

    by theville4ever_1972 Jun 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    sollid_companiess_only sollid_companiess_only Jun 19, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    A Chevron buy out of MRO sure wouldn't be good news for MRO shareholders, even if Chevron offered a 50% premium for MRO shares. I've owned MRO shares for almost exactly 2 years, in my Fidelity IRA account. During that time period the pps of my MRO shares have gained over 60% in value, from $25 to $39. During the same two year period, Chevron only gained 20% in value.

    The only thing that MRO shareholders would gain from such a buyout is a short term premium on their shares. MRO is an up and coming energy company that can grow it's output and shareholder wealth dramatically and quickly. Chevron is a behemoth that can't.

COP
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