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Nokia Corporation Message Board

sonofcaan 151 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 30, 2015 9:29 AM Member since: Aug 13, 2012
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  • "Fitbit (NYSE:FIT) tumbled after the maker of wearable fitness tracking devices, said margins dropped in the second quarter and projects margins will not improve for the remainder of the year."

    Average selling price (ASP) was $88. This suggests higher end Fitbits aren't selling well or that devices are being sold at steep discounts to MSRPs.

    Why are margins so tight and ASP so low? Competition. That's not going away.

  • "Fitbit is a $10 to $12 stock," Chowdhry said in a report. Fitbit's high-margin wearable device business is unsustainable in the face of competition from low-cost competitors like China's Xiaomi, he said.

    Fitbit devices sell for $60 to $250, while Xiaomi sells a fitness band for $15. Meanwhile, Apple Watch is likely to cannibalize Fitbit's business on the higher-end, he said. (Apple Watch starts at $349.)

    "Fitbit is a single-purpose, single-occasion and single-application device and the competition is brutal," he said.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Not all analysts are confused

    by sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 7:20 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 7:45 PM Flag

    You made yourself a "centi-millionaire" by following analysts' opinions, or doing your own DD? Right.

    Maybe Chowdhury is reading my posts. ;-) xoxo

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • No matter how you try to arrange FIT's 7 products in an equation, you must face two facts:

    Fitbit Zip must account for at least HALF of sales revenues, meaning over 3M Zips make up that which defines FIT's customer base. (7 products; Zip $88, One $100, Flex $100, Charge $130, Aria $130, Charge HR $150, Surge $250)

    Fitbit Surge must not have sold more than 200K units. That figure wouldn't leave much for the rest of the mix and is probably much lower. Fitbit Surge is a flop. Six products share half Q2 Sales Revenue over a remaining 1M plus devices.

    That should tell you what FIT can do *now* (low cost, high margin Zips), and what they *cannot* do (innovate desirable higher-end devices).
    No, the Apple Watch is not your competitor.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Smell the Coffee!

    by mrdclark Sep 3, 2015 11:00 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 3, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    It might go over $40 before, but FIT is going below $20 within a year. I see $16. See my other posts why.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    will FIT ever find

    by spirallocks Sep 1, 2015 8:43 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 1, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    Right. Who makes and assembles FIT's products?

    Flextronics (FLEX), Chinese owned and operated.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    companies are buying fitbits and

    by bob411oilandgas Sep 3, 2015 12:10 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 3, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Aww. Do you need a hug?


    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $88 ASP through 4,5M devices for Q2

    by sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 1:22 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Long pumpers love to wag the dog.

    I don't care who buys or sells FIT. I care that analysts produce better reports than the IDC or today's MS. They're confused on how to define "wearables".

    They should be including all solutions in the wearables "jobs to be done" conversation. They neglect sensor redundancy from product overlap and over 300M active unique users of popular health and fitness apps. Fitbit aren't even close to leading in active users, having far less than their 25M lifetime history of devices sold. Nor are they even close to the top versus the field as a supplier of sensor data originating from their own devices.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    stillsuperk says

    by spirallocks Sep 3, 2015 7:09 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 3, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    FIT are the only fitness tracking service that locks users into their platform. They offer limited APIs to a small group of registered app partners, but are very careful *NOT* to allow exporting of session data. With this walled-garden approach, you'd think they'd offer best-in-class fitness analytics and services. They do not. At the very least, if they mandate users' data stay within their platform, then why can't they capitalise on value-added products (services)?

    FIT's latest 10-Q stated, "and the three and six months ended June 30, 2014 and 2015, we derived less than 1% of our revenue from sales of our subscription-based premium services."

    So, more than 99% of revenues come from devices, carrying an $88 ASP per device. Yes, "flea collars" seem to be where FIT makes most of their revenues.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $88 ASP through 4,5M devices for Q2

    by sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 1:22 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 3:21 PM Flag

    I *am* trying to draw attention to the software side. FIT are no where near the top of downloads for apps nor active unique users. Compare to Runkeeper, Endomondo, Runtastic, MapMyFitness and hundreds more.

    Monetization on software side? FIT's revenues from services (software) was less than 1%. Less than 1%! How about that FIT employs two thirds of its workforce on software? It's a problem.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    thank goodness for mannart and kap

    by jamesdickerson125 Sep 8, 2015 5:53 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 7:37 PM Flag

    ABC, right?

    Thanks for your insightful take on what $88 ASP across 4,5M devices means! Less than 1% revenues from software-based subscriptions. Total active unique users under half of FIT's entire lifetime 25M devices sold. Fitbit Surge and nearly all 6 products above the entry-level Zip are flopping, comparatively. Advanced R&D of FIT is paying off and I'm sure their next idea will take the SP to $700.

    How many Surges sold in Q2? Hmm? $88 ASP, 4,5M devices, says it wasn't a whole heckuva lot.

    Fitbit Zip, FTW!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $88 ASP through 4,5M devices for Q2

    by sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 1:22 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Show us how smart you really are and make an equation that gives $88 ASP over 4,5M devices where ZIP doesn't dominate and Surge looks successful.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $88 ASP through 4,5M devices for Q2

    by sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 1:22 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 8, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    Loads of wagging the dog by Longs. Yet not a single one addressing the issues I brought up.

    All FIT really sell are lowest end Zips; Over 3M of Q2's 4,458M devices sold. $88 ASP.

    No revenue from software; less than 1% of Q2 revenues.

    Crazy, empty questioning with no apparent DD on my part?

    ;-) Flame away.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    shorts be careful

    by michaeltraina Aug 28, 2015 10:19 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Aug 28, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Shows your lack of knowledge to suggest that FIT will partner with UA and/or Nike.

    Amersports (Suunto), Under Armour, Adidas, Nike, Polar, Garmin... All these are the companies running their own shows, swallowing major apps, their services and subscribers, while trying to create distinctive hardware to run them with. Fitbit will have to run their own show, acquiring Strava or Runkeeper, but they will NOT play under another's umbrella. Fitbit have decided thus far to go it alone, after they snubbed Apple's HealthKit integration. Fitbit are trying to create a platform, a solo empire who owns all their users' data. It was a bold decision that will not work out for them.

  • From DC Rainmaker's Fitbit Surge review:


    At this time the Fitbit Surge does not officially offer any form of data exporting of your activities, nor of 24×7 HR monitoring (not even with a Premium Account). There is one little tool you can use to somewhat export out your runs, but only the GPS portion and not the HR portion.

    Meanwhile, Fitbit did announce at CES that Strava support is on the way – so that would in theory mean you’ll get at least GPS, and hopefully HR data as well there. Still, given every other product on the market today supports exporting to some form of file from a web control panel, it’s a definite downside to the Surge lacking any way at all to do that.

    While Fitbit might have been able to get away with the walled garden approach in past years, the market is simply too competitive these days for that plan of action. Hopefully they’ll make it easier for people to access and save their own data."

    Apple critics use the term "walled-garden" exhaustingly. However, any fitness data you have that feeds into Apple's Health app can be exported and shared with whomever you choose, anytime. Fitbit refuses to play along and your data remains with Fitbit. No 3rd party analytics, no bringing your history with you if you want to switch to an alternative tracking service. Fitbit have you trapped in their garden.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The competition no one is talking about

    by sonofcaan Sep 2, 2015 5:12 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Sep 2, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    What are the "jobs to be done" that a Fitbit answers...wait for it...that *cannot* be done with a smartphone and an app?

    Of the jobs to be done, what does Fitbit do better than a smartphone and an app?

    Hundreds of millions use their smartphone and apps to guide and track their health and fitness. You can switch out apps, connect their data, incorporate external sensors for blood pressure, heart rate, weight scales and body comp, blood sugar, cycling power meters, lactate threshold...on and on. You have a supercomputer in your pocket that can perform all sorts of jobs, including highly accurate location and motion logging.

    Only the uninformed would spend up to $250 for a needless activity band that does no more than what you can do with the phone you already own and a free app. They're out there, but not for FIT's long term growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    FIT's concern isn't Apple Watch, but...

    by sonofcaan Aug 29, 2015 4:48 PM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Aug 29, 2015 5:08 PM Flag

    Nike Fuelband was mothballed because Nike was seeing far more users actively engaged with their mobile apps than connected Fuelband. It was determined that the Fuelband wasn't necessary, as every data point could be supplied using the phone's hardware. Nike found that even when users were given the liberty to leave their phones home during workouts, they still brought them along anyway.

    FIT's hardware provides *redundant* data, (e.g., Data already available via smartphone). A Fitbit is ultimately unnecessary.

  • Apps as competition.

    From FIT's latest 10-Q, page 37:

    "In addition, we compete with a wide range of stand-alone health and fitness-related mobile apps that can be purchased or downloaded through mobile app stores. We believe many of our competitors and potential competitors have significant competitive advantages, including longer operating histories, ability to leverage their sales efforts and marketing expenditures across a broader portfolio of products and services, larger and broader customer bases, more established relationships with a larger number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and channel partners, greater brand recognition, ability to leverage app stores which they may operate, and greater financial, research and development, marketing, distribution, and other resources than we do. Our competitors and potential competitors may also be able to develop products or services that are equal or superior to ours, achieve greater market acceptance of their products and services, and increase sales by utilizing different distribution channels than we do."

    Mobile apps for fitness and health tracking.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Fitbit's "walled-garden" approach to user data

    by sonofcaan Aug 31, 2015 8:36 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Aug 31, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    You don't get it if you think I'm for Apple crushing Fitbit into obsolescence. If I have feelings in the game, then they're for real sports watches like Polar, Suunto and Garmin. Fitbit has nothing to serve true endurance athletes, and as such, shouldn't be the choice for those who might one day raise their fitness to a point where they'll need a Polar, Suunto or Garmin device.

    If you begin with Fitbit, your data will remain trapped under their control.

    FIT will go below IPO price within six months. 6 months.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Corporate Wellness anchored by Fitbit

    by fitbeat Aug 31, 2015 6:12 AM
    sonofcaan sonofcaan Aug 31, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    Corporate wellness as a term ain't gonna last and your interpretation of it, and its future, sounds maniacally Orwellian.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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