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Cerner Corporation Message Board

sonomaca 284 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Dec 18, 1998
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  • Reply to

    GSK Ebola vaccine

    by sonomaca Jan 23, 2015 5:29 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca 23 hours ago Flag

    You make my point. The epidemic is pretty much over in Liberia and Guinea, and fading rapidly in Sierra Leone. GSK can give 10,000 people the vaccine, but if no one in the control group gets Ebola, they'll never know if it works.

    CEMI has been moving fast of Ebola and febrile illness, but maybe not fast enough.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Jan 23, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    They intend to enroll 30,000 patients in Liberia trial, 10,000 of which will get the vaccine. Only one problem: virtually no one in Liberia has Ebola at this point, so it will be impossible to tell if the stuff works or not.

    I have grave doubts as to whether CEMI will be able to run trials in Africa, given the paucity of cases at this point. In both cases, we have a solution without a problem.

  • Whatever Sperzel said, or did not say, or implied, really spooked investors. Unfortunately, we won't find out exactly what's going on until March, but it seems likely that it won't be particularly good, unless of course Sperzel is a master poker player.

    I don't see him, or any other insiders for that matter, making purchases.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    CEMI likely did have some leverage here. CEMI has no control over the volume of ALR's Sure Check sales. However, once CEMI terminates the agreement with ALR in June of 2016, Stat Sure could be left high and dry should CEMI simply choose to discontinue the product. So, Stat Sure had an incentive to settle.

    I don't think this was a particularly costly deal for CEMI. Stat Sure filed the patent infringement suit late last year, and it was settled very soon thereafter. I'm going to guess this cost CEMI less than $2 million.

  • Reply to

    Smart move

    by goozballou Jan 22, 2015 9:30 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Don't even bother replying to him. He's certifiably insane.

  • Reply to

    All about the call

    by sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 12:45 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    One other thing. The Ebola epidemic seems to be winding down. CEMI had better get snapping on the field testing, or there won't be any more cases to test.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Sperzel seemed to have left the impression in SF that things were not going particularly well. We'll soon see if that's true.

    CEMI seems to have gone all in on Ebola, which doesn't appear at first glance to make much sense. However, I think Sperzel sees this as an opportunity to draw attention to the febrile illness assay and to the DPP technology in general. I think febrile illness could be a "killer app" in the developing world. Think of Ebola as a loss leader for febrile illness.

    The three big questions are:

    1) US sales
    2) Status of DPP HIV-Syph for US market
    3) Sales in Latam, especially given the tech transfer to Fio.

    Right now, the market is pricing in disappointing answers.

  • Reply to

    Smart move

    by goozballou Jan 22, 2015 9:30 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 22, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Hard to say. His hand may have been forced. CEMI was under pressure of patent infringement lawsuit. It really all depends upon the terms, which weren't disclosed. That said, CEMI can take back the product from ALR next year, so they won't be sharing rev's with anyone. Problem is, the lateral flow products in general are probably going to experience a declining revenue stream over time.

  • Am excited about febrile illness assay. Malaria is a big deal, as is dengue. The idea that health care providers in developing countries can have a febrile illness diagnosis in 20 minutes without a lab is a big deal. Of course, it always comes down to funding, but this product could sell tens of millions per year. Very intrigued.

  • sonomaca sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    It's painful, and sad, to watch you in action. Please don't further embarrass yourself.

  • sonomaca sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    We need CC to see how US sales will shake out. They lost some ALR sales, but they are now selling Stat Pak and DPP themselves at much higher margins. We also don't know how badly Detemine Combo will gut all POC HIV segments in the US. I was specifically looking for a comment about US HIV sales, and there wasn't one. That's a bit worrisome. Clearly, others had a negative reaction.

    I don't know what was said outside of main presentation, but I have no doubt people were interested, as Sperzel has a good track record.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    Speezel effectively pre-announced bad earnings yesterday.

  • Reply to

    Influenza and Zachs update

    by mo.scuba Jan 14, 2015 10:59 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    The long term looks good. However, what about this year?

  • sonomaca sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    The fact that he never mentionsed that US sales were doing well was a killer. Also, no timeline for HIV Syph. That could take a couple of years.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Jan 14, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    As I said before, just rehashing PRs wasn't going to be.a good sign. Also, I got the impression that US sales are off to a slow start, which was the fear given Determine Combo.

  • Reply to

    Lets clarify some things WITH DATA

    by mo.scuba Jan 12, 2015 4:26 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 12, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    Did they add a scuba diving event to the special olympics schedule? How did you do?

  • Reply to

    Lets clarify some things WITH DATA

    by mo.scuba Jan 12, 2015 4:26 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 12, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    Were you born with the umbilical cord wrapped around your neck?

  • First, CEMI has submitted a pre-qualification application to WHO, along with other entities. The informal deadline was January. WHO will now evaluate the various applications, of which there are about 20, and choose the best for procurement. Some have already been evaluated, so CEMI is a little bit late to the party. I don't know what role field studies will play, ultimately, but it's obviously important. I also don't know the size of this potential market, or how many IVD's of different types will be approved.

    It is clear that running field trials in Africa is going to cost, and that CEMI could certainly use some funding. I believe that Sperzel knows how to accomplish this, although I would have expected some money to have been procured by now.

  • Reply to

    EXAS +7.6% Today

    by sailingaway82 Jan 8, 2015 8:38 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Jan 9, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Very interested to see what Sperzel has to say on Tuesday. If he says nothing new, and just rehashes old PR's, I don't think that's going to be a very good sign. We haven't heard from him for awhile, so this is going to be an important presentation.

  • sonomaca sonomaca Jan 8, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    That's a very good question, which has yet to be fully elucidated. The hopeful answer from our perspective is that his new employer required him to do so in order to avoid conflicts of interest (he is, apparently, dispensing diagnostics investment advice/help).

    Regarding the new announcements, the takeaway is that DPP has established itself as a premier, if not the premier, POC device technology. We've seen multiple partners sign on with DPP, for Ebola, Dengue, cancer, influenza, and now brain injury. That's four externally funded projects plus Ebola. I think today's annoucement reflects the fact that CEMI now has too many projects for Esfandiari to run on his own. (Plus, you've got to give the guy time to work on the next generation of DPP).

    I take all this activity as long-term bullish. However, investors are concerned about sales of existing products this year. For that, we'll have to wait.

CERN
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