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Cerner Corporation Message Board

sonomaca 224 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 minutes ago Member since: Dec 18, 1998
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  • Reply to

    A New DPP Product

    by sonomaca 19 hours ago
    sonomaca sonomaca 16 minutes ago Flag

    I think there may be a market, particularly if CEMI could develop a multiplex which tests for the most common 3 or 4 for blood stream infections found in hospitalized patients.

    We know that CEMI has created a number of applications for DPP which have not yet been brought to market or trial. These include TORCH, Bio-Threat, and now Candida. There may be others that we don't know about. Why have not these seen the light of day? Perhaps it's a question of money. CEMI would prefer that partners fund development efforts. Perhaps the markets aren't large enough to justify the expenditure.

    May get some surprises in 2016, like malaria in 2015.

  • Reply to

    A New DPP Product

    by sonomaca 19 hours ago
    sonomaca sonomaca 18 hours ago Flag

    Apparently, nearly 4x more sensitive than existing assays.

  • The target this time is Candida Albicans, which can become a serious blood bourne infection in the hospital setting. Existing lateral flow assays are poor, but I think CEMI might have a DPP Candida assay in development.

    We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Trip to oblivion

    by sonomaca Nov 23, 2015 11:21 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Nov 25, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    The problem is, clearly, that there's no way they can bring costs down enough to avoid the bitter end (even if they wanted to, which they clearly do not).

    My question is: When they bought Redpath, did they buy a massively money-losing operation or did they transform it into a massively money-losing operation through their own efforts?

    If they did buy a massively money-losing operation, that's unacceptable. If they made it that way, that's gross incompetence. The only other possibility is that key facts were hidden from PDII management, which is fraud on the part of Newspring.

    Two facts create great doubt in my mind. First, management has not volunteered to take a pay cut in lieu of more incentive-based compensation. Two, they haven't consolidated all operations in one location, at least as far as I know.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 23, 2015 11:21 PM Flag

    Really not much left now. If the company isn't sold, we are looking at 30 cents by January, but it could happen sooner. It will likely all be over shortly thereafter. Nancy will only be able to collect another few hundred thousand. Clearly, she'll never have another executive job. Imperative that the BOD entertain serious offers.

  • Reply to

    Let's get real

    by sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 10:26 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca Nov 22, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Only problem with your argument is that Lurker and other insiders own a lot of stock. They stand to lose if the current plan fails. That said, they should all restructure comp packages.

  • Reply to

    Newspring Capital

    by sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 1:25 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    Remember when she bought Group DCA. It was a complete scam and a total loss. If you want to unload some garbage for a nice price, just put on a fresh coat of paint and call Nancy.

    I think the max revenues we're going to see will be $15 million in 2016. Max. That means a loss of $35 million, minimum. They have enough money to last, maybe 3 or 4 months at that pace.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    These are the altruists who dumped a steaming pile of Redpath on PDI. They got some stock and a board seat as a result. I'm wondering if they might not take all the cash given to them by PDI and buy PDI. That would be the most beautiful transaction ever executed.

  • They paid more than $31 million to owners of Redpath and Asuragen. Now, PDI is worth $14. NL managed to destroy half the value of these assets in 12 months (and I'm not counting the cash on hand, which will be vaporized shortly).

  • sonomaca sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    I'd be fine with that. We know she's got 43% of the shares with her. I'm assuming those are the insiders plus Dugan. So, she really only needs $15 million to buy the additional 10 million shares. Would Heartland, Dimensional and Renaissance object? I doubt it at this point. They'd probably be happy to escape with something. Go for it Nancy, that is if you can find someone to give/loan you $15 million.

  • sonomaca sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 11:01 AM Flag

    Yes. They need to come out and say: we've aligned revenues and expenses for 2016, in which case the stock would recover. Or, sell the company. Those are really the only two choices. Anything else is suicide.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 10:59 AM Flag

    The collapse is happening much faster than even I anticipated. I was think 30 cents by January, but it might come much sooner.

    Hey BOD: It's over. Sell the company now before she blows through another $10 million. Someone is going to have to pull the credit card from her and do the adult thing.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 20, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    With the stock price at 80 cents and dropping, the company isn't going to be able to issue new stock for anything much more than 50 cents. This is really the "destroy the village to save it" strategy, where the stockholders are the village.

    As for borrowing, well, they can probably get a couple of million against A/R. That will buy them a couple of weeks. There isn't any other money. So, BOD, here are your choices:

    Sell the company in the next few weeks, before NL goes through the remaining cash.

    Cut expenses drastically, so that they match revenues. There's no way that PDI is going to accelerate revenues fast enough to match the bloated expense line (stating with NL's ridiculous salary).

    When you've got a penny stock, competitors' sales folks are going to use that fact against you. NL, of all people, should know that.

    What am I saying: SELL THE COMPANY NOW. Anything more than about $1.50 would do at this point. The alternative is zero, and zero is going to come much more quickly than people believe.

  • Had a male CEO exhibited such a pitiable performance over many years, would he still occupy the chair. Are we, perhaps, dealing with a BOD frightened to dismiss the CEO because that CEO is female? Would the BOD prefer to allow for a total loss rather than be accused of gender discrimination?

    I ask you, is it good for the cause of female CEO's if they must be kept on despite catastrophically bad performance? Would not BOD's be reluctant to hire female CEO's if they can't then fire them? Must one ride with a female CEO all the way to bankruptcy?

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 19, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    I was going to make that my last post, but I think the extremely rapid collapse of the stock price renders any plan NL may have had clearly unworkable. It's no obvious that PDI isn't going to be able to raise very much new capital via new stock offerings. New debt will only accelerate the ultimate demise, and destroy any hopes of selling the company as potential acquirers wait to pick up assets in bankruptcy.

    Unless there is some miraculous explosion in revenues, I think the BOD has about 2 or 3 months to sell the company. If they do nothing, the stock price will be 30 cents by January and 6 cents by July.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 19, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    I think the timeline is much more compact than NL would have us believe. I see little chance the company makes it through 2016. I think the stock price will reflect that fact sooner rather than later. The longer they wait to sell the company, the lower will be the bids. The turnaround plan is unworkable. To continue with it will cost the shareholders everything. I'm guessing the most that NL will be able to hold onto her near $1 million salary is another 12 months.

  • I don't think it's going to be possible to raise more than a few million dollars with a share price of 90 cents. If they try to sell stock, they'll essentially be selling a controlling interest in the company, but at 50 or 60 cents a share. As for debt financing, I doubt they'd get more than a couple of million dollars, and that would add yet more to costs. In either scenario, we're talking about buying a few months of operating expenses.

    Bottom line is that we're a move or two from check mate. The only reasonable solution is to try and sell the company now, before new stockholders or creditors take the assets for next to nothing. Capiche?

  • The end may come more quickly than anticipated. The BOD should accept any reasonable offer at this point, because the alternative is nothing. NL's plan is unworkable given the need for $50 million of revenue. It's patently obvious.

    The remaining assets of this company clearly might be of value to an existing company, whereby the products could be added to an existing cost structure, ie an existing lab, sales force, management, etc. Someone might pay PDI $2 to $3 a share right now for those assets. The alternative is clearly zero for existing shareholders. It doesn't take a financial genius to make the right move here.

    I've given may advice on this board for years. It's been studiously ignored. Will it be yet again?

  • Reply to

    Clearly the street HATES this deal

    by getshorty101 Nov 2, 2015 3:00 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca Nov 17, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    Well, she's not the Chairman, but most of the 6 board members have been there a long time. These are yes-men, as they have presided over this calamity without taking action. So, I would agree with the premise of your statement that this BOD is a NL hand puppet.

    I think NL's salary is an important signpost. If she continues to draw that large a salary under these conditions, it just means she's vacuuming up as much cash as possible before the ultimate demise.

    I see virtually no chance that PDI can reach anywhere near the breakeven number of $50 million in revenues (and that was the "minimum") before the cash runs out entirely. A buyer which could integrate PDI's assets with an existing cost structure might find this company interesting, but I wouldn't expect much more than $2.

    The BOD must ask the question: $2 now or $0 later.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca Nov 16, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    If this is all true, I think it's going to kindle interest in HIV testing once again. Perhaps not a big needle mover for CEMI, but something.

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