I think he's being conservative. He's not going to count tropical disease revenue until it actually appears, but it may very well appear in mid-to-late 2016. If it does, revenue is going to be substantially more than $30 million next year.
Might be another cancer. The superior sensitivity with regard to malaria leads me to believe this might be a whole blood or plasma test which detects circulating tumor cell antigens at very low levels.
I think CEMI envisions a multiplex screen for a variety of common cancers. That would be revolutionary.
I don't really buy the 0 to 60 comment. We know from the Lima slides that they had already tested DPP malaria early in 2015. I think they were quietly working on this in 2014, but when ALR got a Gates grant for ultrasensitive malaria late last year, CEMI had to go public with their efforts. This has been a priority project for JE. It isn't often that someone can say, "I helped in a significant way to eradicate one humanity's greatest scourges"
Must keep JE happy. His 2nd gen DPP device, with the self-contained buffer, is awesome.
Good post. Alere is always a threat. On the flip side, CEMI must be a real irritant to ALR. They had a chance to buy CEMI 4 years ago, and passed. Probably not a great move, but I'm glad they didn't.
Could CEMI be worth half a billion dollars? Much of this comes down to the size of the malaria/febrile illness market, but we all know how much money there is in cancer diagnostics.
Couple of notes:
They snagged an exclusive agreement with what is apparently the best reader on the market. I have to think that without the promise of malaria this would not have happened.
Sperzel touched on plans for malaria. We're looking at two further quarters of testing, at which point RVR will start producing kits. CEMI apparently has the distribution channels in place necessary to do this themselves. The big question, then, is when they will begin to see non-CDC malaria revenues. Middle to late 2016?
No mention of the WHO prequalification slip-up on DPP HIV-Syph. Does this mean that problem isn't fixable?
The tone of the discussion on cancer is somewhat different. It would seem that DPP Cancer works better than anyone had expected. The experience with malaria, whereby DPP with reader could detect at extremely low levels, leads me to believe that the cancer test can do the same. Has CEMI developed a screening tool which can detect micrometastases/CTC's for one or more cancers?
DPP Cancer is apparently starting to become interesting. They are confident enough to be seeking other opportunities in oncology. This could potentially be very big, just like malaria.
There was some miscommunication about which samples would be used. This comes down to taking the WHO lab officials to lunch to find out what they intend to do so that you're prepared.