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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

sonomaca 106 posts  |  Last Activity: May 26, 2015 11:27 AM Member since: Dec 18, 1998
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  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 26, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    As the year progresses, we will (hopefully) hear more about the development of new products, and the regulatory progression of others. This will gently lift the stock price toward a more reasonable valuation. At minimum, the company should go for 2x 2016 revenue, which is around $6.50 a share. A more likely multiple would be 2.5x, which is around $8.

  • This project is completed. The CDC spent a big chunk of change on this. The results have presumably been evaluated by now, or soon will be. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of this, but should know soon enough.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 20, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    They actually developed DPP HIV-Syph for the new algo much faster than I had expected. We know they secured what was needed to complete Ag/Ab in February, and we know they spent more $ than expected doing work on that and on HCV in Q1. This all leads me to believe that they are going to finish those projects sooner rather than later.

    Given the pace at which they wrapped up DPP Ebola and, presumably, Febrile Illness (whatever that encompasses), I think it's reasonable to expect more announcements this year. Other prime candidates would be Dengue and Malaria.

  • Reply to

    Told you so..

    by anthony.rags May 20, 2015 11:43 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 20, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Probably go right back to where it was last week, maybe slightly above, ie $5.50 or $5.75.

    The fundamentals of this company remain weak. The management is mediocre at best. Don't have a great pipeline. Competition evolving in many of their segments. Generally, blah.

  • Hey folks, they raised money in order to make acquisitions. Question is, how long will they sit on the cash before making a move. The stock price is set to test 2 year lows. I believe it will continue to decline if they sit on their hands.

  • sonomaca sonomaca May 19, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    Huh? The stock was mid-5's last week, low of $5 over the past year.

  • Reply to

    CEMI internal development projects

    by sonomaca May 18, 2015 11:04 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 19, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Per WAG's PR, this is a very limited program. No justification for rise in OSUR stock price on that basis.

  • Reply to

    CEMI internal development projects

    by sonomaca May 18, 2015 11:04 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 19, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    I don't doubt that Walgreens would like to do it. Immunizations have become a real profit center for retail pharmacies. However, pharmacists are not phlebotomists. Nor do they have time to run test and wait for results. Nor do they have the training to speak with the customer about positives results. In my view, and I'm a pharmacist by training, this is a nonstarter in the pharmacy. If we're talking about in-store clinics, sure.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 18, 2015 4:20 PM Flag

    1,092,780

    That's up from 1,050,280 last quarter.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 18, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    From the 10Q:

    "R&D expenses in the first quarter of 2015 were $1.58 million, compared with $1.20 million in the prior-year period. Development work continues on several assays utilizing Chembio's DPP® platform, including the DPP® HIV multiplex test that is designed to detect acute (early stage) HIV infection by means of detecting P24 antigen, as well as antibodies to HIV1/2, and the DPP® HCV point-of-care rapid test."

    I wonder how far along they are with DPP HCV?

  • Reply to

    CEMI internal development projects

    by sonomaca May 18, 2015 11:04 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 18, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    DPP HIV-Syph (reverse algo) is developed, done. It's all about the trials on that now. I'm not sure to which projects CEMI has applied its development resources since completing DPP HIV-Syph. I'm guessing its mostly been allocated to the various partnership projects. Sperzel never mentioned HCV on the last call, nor did he mention the other internal development projects.

  • Reply to

    CEMI internal development projects

    by sonomaca May 18, 2015 11:04 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 18, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    I think the excitement concerns H.R. 1101, the "Hepatitis Testing Act of 2015." Apparently, there is some momentum there, but who knows.

  • Ok, from last investor presentation, we've got DPP HIV-Syph listed first (we know this to be top priority. Then comes HCV. Wonder if this process is done serially, ie finish DPP HIV-Syph, then go to the next one. I seem to recall that each project had a "team". Does that mean work has progressed on HCV and, if so, what might the timeline now be?

  • Reply to

    OSUR

    by sonomaca May 18, 2015 10:51 AM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 18, 2015 10:55 AM Flag

    If so, this raises the question: is CEMI actually working on HCV? Wasn't that one Sperzel's 4 projects? The first was HIV-Syph. Then, I remember enhancements to DPP HIV. I think HCV was in there, as well. Can't remember the fourth. Seems to me that, even if CEMI is working on HCV, it's not a priority.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 18, 2015 10:51 AM Flag

    No explanation given for crazy rise. Some speculation regarding government support for widespread HCV testing, but that's no confirmed.

  • Reply to

    Volume

    by mjh194353 May 12, 2015 4:02 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 12, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    I'm assuming Bonello issued a luke warm report on Monday, which might account for the slide. Unfortunately, unless you're a CH customer, you can't see them.

    Marckx ties CEMI's valuation to OSUR's, hence the decline in the PT (OSUR has fallen 50% in 6 months). Personally, I think CEMI should fetch a higher multiple than OSUR, but $7.50 is still a ways up from here. Marckx doesn't include any incremental revenue from new projects in his numbers, which is why the upside is tied to new product releases.

    He does note the out-sized spending on R&D, and takes this as a sign that they are working feverishly (no pun intended) to get new products to market this year.

  • Reply to

    Ebola Test

    by hollyrivermoose May 7, 2015 4:47 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 12, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    It's been going down because they haven't executed well on a variety of fronts, because they're losing market share in HIV, and because OTC didn't work. Also, they don't make any money and don't have an exciting pipeline. Furthermore, the stock was very expensive, less so now.

  • sonomaca by sonomaca May 12, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Now shown to endure in ocular, spinal, and testicular fluid. There is the potential for Ebola to become an STD, or even to be transmitted via ocular secretions. Ebola isn't likely to go away any time soon.

    If and when CEMI announces DPP Ebola, DPP Malaria and/or DPP Dengue has been submitted for approval, the stock price will certainly get a boost. Will any of these events occur in 2015?

  • Reply to

    Ebola Test

    by hollyrivermoose May 7, 2015 4:47 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 12, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    I guess you haven't noticed that this stock is down 50% in 6 months.

  • Reply to

    Ebola Test

    by hollyrivermoose May 7, 2015 4:47 PM
    sonomaca sonomaca May 9, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    If the only thing they have to discuss is Ebola, well, that's pretty sad. Meanwhile, Trinity has been loading up with cash while OSUR dithers. Trinity is going to make a bold move in M&A, and leave OSUR to pick through the leftovers.

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