In 2016, it's in the $4 to $8 million range with rapid growth, topping $10 million thereafter. Sperzel has shown that he works very well with the FDA, so I'm guessing CLIA waiver by early 2017.
No one has yet given CEMI any money for this project. Not clear why that might be the case. Perhaps they want to see the results of the field trials first. I'm guessing that CEMI has preliminary data already, but we'll see. The Corgenix trial involved only a couple of hundred patients, so you'd think the trial wouldn't take more than a month.
The WHO has issued rulings which limit the use of POC diagnostics in Ebola country. Perhaps they've done so because the Corgenix test is so poor. Hard to say. Also, the health ministries in these countries must apparently approve use of the various devices. I'm guessing that means bribes, since these are among the most corrupt countries on Earth.
That's getting to be interesting, at somewhere in 1.5x range, although it would be more interesting if they'd dump the overpriced and under performing management team. OSUR is presently living off the fact that they beat others to market in key segments, but that won't last. They also lack for a next generation platform.
I have no doubt that, were OSUR to hire a younger, Sperzel-type CEO, they could eventually become competitive again.
the more this company looks like a personal piggy bank for management. The best analogy is one of this cheesy casinos where the slots are so rigged in the house's favor, that winning is impossible. Have the hacks who run OSUR done anything which merits the enormous compensation? Obviously not. As I've said, this company has been "captured". In the absence of an activist shareholder, my guess is that your money continues to be "their" money for the foreseeable future.
OSUR's valuation has come down quite a bit, and we're now talking EV/rev in the 1.6 range. That's not expensive, even for a tired enterprise like OSUR. That said, I don't really know how management justifies the continued independent existence of a company which doesn't generate cash or growth, which pays no dividend, and which really has very little under the hood.
I think the only answer to the question is that this company exists to pay its executives outrageous salaries for sub-optimal performance. This company has been "captured" by management, and exists mainly to fund its mediocre (or worse) executives' lavish lifestyles.
This company should be sold forthwith. It's a scandal that it continues to operate independently. I don't own it, BTW.
This is a "wait-and'see" type deal. Blackberry is another Nant shareholder, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. My question: did Epic and Cerner pass on this deal and, if so, why?
They haven't actually manufactured the test yet. Part of the issue is the test's extremely poor performance. A second issue is a WHO decision to limit POC testing to rural areas only. Hopefully, that will change as POC tests improve.
Hammered today. Of course, they're principally a European company. They've been wise to try and build businesses in the US and elsewhere. I think their big cash hoard will be used to further expand in the US.
That said, they've got so many projects in development that will almost surely be some successes. Regarding Ebola, it's still a bit strange that they've gotten no funding even as OSUR picked up $10 million for what will, almost certainly, be a product inferior to CEMI's.
Another near-term project Dengue, which may be ready later this year. That could be a big seller. Also, seems likely we'll get trials for DPP HIV-Syph for US later this year, although the approval process is, as we've seen, extremely lengthy.
You want this to be a great growth story, a dynamic company. It's just not. Is it terrible? No. Is management disastrously incompetent? No. At the moment, it's just another average company.
TRIB isn't much better, although I think that the product pipeline there is potentially much stronger. Also, TRIB has all but declared that they're going to make acquisitions, which means they'll get the low hanging fruit and OSUR will not. My favorite, of course, is CEMI, mostly because the CEO is a cut above, because they have a superior technology at the moment, and because the company is still undervalued relative to OSUR and TRIB.
They're clinging to that cash like grim death. They blew tons of cash on the OTC mess, and now they clearly don't want to part with any more. However, they need to kick start growth via acquisition, because they existing stable of products is tired, and I don't think the pipeline is particularly robust.
CEMI has been going up steadily on higher-than-usual volume. Why? There hasn't been any news, other than CE, which isn't much. Sperzel has been talking to investors, but he's done that before, to little effect.
Could it be that investors have merely awoken to the untapped value? Perhaps, OTOH, CEMI is in play. We know that TRIB raised cash explicitly for the purpose of acquisition. ALR hasn't made any moves recently, even has the company's financial condition has improved dramatically, and as it has focused increasingly on diagnostics. OSUR is struggling to grow, and sits atop a small pile of cash.
Whatever happens, I think the next few quarters will feature lots of action.