I don't think Sperzel would recommend any price less than $10 to the BOD. ALR, TRIB and OSUR had an opportunity a few years ago, and they got cheap. Now, they're going to have to pay up if they want CEMI.
Alere paid $60 million. US Diagnostics revenue in 2013 was around $13 million, so probably around $20 million for 2016 given past growth rates. In the ballpark of 3x revs. For CEMI, an equivalent valuation would be near $100 million, although CEMI's growth has been less. That's around $10 a share.
Can't find the actual study or anything beyond reprints of the PR in various Brazilian media outlets. Can't even find the original PR. It's tough to say exactly what's going on, but my interpretation is that the study used a treponemal non-treponemal combo test, that it was highly successful, and that it will be used in the Stork program once approved. Impossible to say if this interpretation is correct and, if so, how large any future orders might be.
If CEMI does go ahead with US trials later this year, I think we can be fairly confident that the new test works pretty well.
It's wasn't so much snark as exasperation. If someone made what appeared to be an important discovery, I'd be trying to confirm myself rather than asking said person to do the work for me. Laziness bugs me.
The Fiocruz rep indicated that that's where the reverse algo test is headed once approved. Presumably, that's mother to child prevention. My sense is that there is a high confidence that approval (registration) is coming. I'm guessing CEMI was holding the PR until that time, but Fiocruz apparently let the cat out of the bag. I guess they do what they want, when they want.
I'm guessing up on both counts.
Dengue is other big item. Fiocruz has engaged with a California biotech on that front, so the race is really on. Dengue could be HUGE.
I'm really appreciating the way that Sperzel is making sure CEMI's new tests are lock-down near 100% S&S before bringing them to market. Today's Brazil story indicates he's done it with Syph reverse algo, and we know he held back Ebola until it was rock solid. Probably ditto for Dengue. No wine before its time, and all that.
You can sort of hear the CEMI engines beginning to rev at the moment.
Maybe someone on this board with just the tiniest bit of initiative can do some work on the BIG NEWS before its news. MJH probably couldn't do a google search on himself, so incapable is he.
I don't have to prove anything to you. I don't work for you. I did you the courtesy of pointing out some VERY BIG NEWS, and you apparently don't know enough about Google to find out more on your own. Pathetic.
Sailing: this appeared in Brazilian newspapers today. CEMI never mentioned that they were trialing reverse algo Syph test in Brazil. They had said on last CC that the test was fully developed.
"Caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum, the syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease the fastest growing in the country. Worryingly, the advance also impacts those just starting to live. Congenital syphilis, when the micro-organism is passed from mother to child, it follows the pace of increase of 5,832 records in the country in 2005 to 13,705 in 2013 (135%). Discover the disease as soon as possible is among the proposals of experts to contain the problem. At the end of test phase, a survey created at the Institute of Technology in Immunobiology (Bio-Manguinhos), Fiocruz, follows this logic.
The kit can acknowledge disease simply and in just 15 minutes. From a drop of blood, the probe uses treponemic bases and treponemic screening for the infection. Currently, the test performed to diagnose syphilis is only treponemal, which presents a drawback: since the patient has had the DST tests giving positive results continue, even after successful treatment. The non-treponemal test identifies whether the disease prevails in the individual. Therefore, combining the two enhances the effectiveness of the procedure.
The latest tests of Fiocruz were made with 517 volunteers, people who have had blood collected in two hospitals, a hospital specializing in treatment for AIDS and a general service. According Nara Rubim, a researcher at Bio-Manguinhos, "the sensitivity and specificity of the samples reached levels close to 100%."
The kit, which includes development partner of US company Chembio Diagnostics INC, has already been registered in the National Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa). "The idea is to use the test in Stork program and actions regarding STDs," says Ramon Lemos, one of the authors of the study."
Apparently Fiocruz ran a fairly large trial of CEMI's newly developed reverse algo Syph test. Spec and and sens near 100%. Further, the test has already been sent to Anvisa. If true, this is BIG news, as the test may very well be approved in Brazil and will sail through US trials.
Will be interesting to see what type of financial arrangements were made as regards to the various collaborations: the oft-mentioned "certain type of cancer", concussion, and Dengue. Lots of potential needle movers.
In 2016, it's in the $4 to $8 million range with rapid growth, topping $10 million thereafter. Sperzel has shown that he works very well with the FDA, so I'm guessing CLIA waiver by early 2017.
No one has yet given CEMI any money for this project. Not clear why that might be the case. Perhaps they want to see the results of the field trials first. I'm guessing that CEMI has preliminary data already, but we'll see. The Corgenix trial involved only a couple of hundred patients, so you'd think the trial wouldn't take more than a month.
The WHO has issued rulings which limit the use of POC diagnostics in Ebola country. Perhaps they've done so because the Corgenix test is so poor. Hard to say. Also, the health ministries in these countries must apparently approve use of the various devices. I'm guessing that means bribes, since these are among the most corrupt countries on Earth.
That's getting to be interesting, at somewhere in 1.5x range, although it would be more interesting if they'd dump the overpriced and under performing management team. OSUR is presently living off the fact that they beat others to market in key segments, but that won't last. They also lack for a next generation platform.
I have no doubt that, were OSUR to hire a younger, Sperzel-type CEO, they could eventually become competitive again.
the more this company looks like a personal piggy bank for management. The best analogy is one of this cheesy casinos where the slots are so rigged in the house's favor, that winning is impossible. Have the hacks who run OSUR done anything which merits the enormous compensation? Obviously not. As I've said, this company has been "captured". In the absence of an activist shareholder, my guess is that your money continues to be "their" money for the foreseeable future.