Even if 2015 rev's are so-so, Sperzel has so many projects in the works, that he's bound to hit on something. Obviously, febrile illness and malaria are the best prospects, but we shouldn't forget about DPP HIV-Syph internationally. If this product becomes as popular in a few other countries as it has been in Mexico, it could be a big revenue generator.
I really don't understand how this stock sits at under $4 given the possibilities, but what do I know.
No doubt there are others. Some of them will undoubtedly have the cumbersome electronic readers. Try getting one of those to work when the battery dies or when it falls into a big puddle or when there's a software problem or when someone just doesn't really know how to use the damn thing.
Also, if you can test for latent malarial infection AND HIV and syphilis at the same time, why wouldn't you?
Importantly, this is a challenge to detect asymptomatic cases. Much more difficult than detecting febrile malarial cases. However, I'm going to go ahead and state that CEMI already knows the test is sensitive enough to meet the challenge. This is a big deal, because malaria is so devastating and so widespread. If DPP malaria does successfully identify asymptomatic cases, we're talking 10's of millions of tests. You do the financial math.
The lottery ticket on this one is a super bargain at $3.65.
Yes, I agree that it will have to be part of any febrile illness assay going forward, if only because early ID could possibly stop a recurrence of this latest epidemic. The problem is, can CEMI actually conduct trials in Africa right now, given the paucity of cases? As of this moment, there are five Ebola cases in all of Liberia. That's it.
In Siera Leone, they are down to eight new cases a day. This epidemic could flare again, but it seems to be all but over. That's a good thing, of course, but it's going to be tough for CEMI to run trials. Corgenix ran trials late last year. They were always a step ahead of CEMI, and that step might prove decisive.
Meanwhile, CEMI has gotten no money for Ebola. I would think that's because Corgenix and others vacuumed up all the dough early and often.
You make my point. The epidemic is pretty much over in Liberia and Guinea, and fading rapidly in Sierra Leone. GSK can give 10,000 people the vaccine, but if no one in the control group gets Ebola, they'll never know if it works.
CEMI has been moving fast of Ebola and febrile illness, but maybe not fast enough.
They intend to enroll 30,000 patients in Liberia trial, 10,000 of which will get the vaccine. Only one problem: virtually no one in Liberia has Ebola at this point, so it will be impossible to tell if the stuff works or not.
I have grave doubts as to whether CEMI will be able to run trials in Africa, given the paucity of cases at this point. In both cases, we have a solution without a problem.
Whatever Sperzel said, or did not say, or implied, really spooked investors. Unfortunately, we won't find out exactly what's going on until March, but it seems likely that it won't be particularly good, unless of course Sperzel is a master poker player.
I don't see him, or any other insiders for that matter, making purchases.
CEMI likely did have some leverage here. CEMI has no control over the volume of ALR's Sure Check sales. However, once CEMI terminates the agreement with ALR in June of 2016, Stat Sure could be left high and dry should CEMI simply choose to discontinue the product. So, Stat Sure had an incentive to settle.
I don't think this was a particularly costly deal for CEMI. Stat Sure filed the patent infringement suit late last year, and it was settled very soon thereafter. I'm going to guess this cost CEMI less than $2 million.
One other thing. The Ebola epidemic seems to be winding down. CEMI had better get snapping on the field testing, or there won't be any more cases to test.
Sperzel seemed to have left the impression in SF that things were not going particularly well. We'll soon see if that's true.
CEMI seems to have gone all in on Ebola, which doesn't appear at first glance to make much sense. However, I think Sperzel sees this as an opportunity to draw attention to the febrile illness assay and to the DPP technology in general. I think febrile illness could be a "killer app" in the developing world. Think of Ebola as a loss leader for febrile illness.
The three big questions are:
1) US sales
2) Status of DPP HIV-Syph for US market
3) Sales in Latam, especially given the tech transfer to Fio.
Right now, the market is pricing in disappointing answers.
Hard to say. His hand may have been forced. CEMI was under pressure of patent infringement lawsuit. It really all depends upon the terms, which weren't disclosed. That said, CEMI can take back the product from ALR next year, so they won't be sharing rev's with anyone. Problem is, the lateral flow products in general are probably going to experience a declining revenue stream over time.
Am excited about febrile illness assay. Malaria is a big deal, as is dengue. The idea that health care providers in developing countries can have a febrile illness diagnosis in 20 minutes without a lab is a big deal. Of course, it always comes down to funding, but this product could sell tens of millions per year. Very intrigued.
It's painful, and sad, to watch you in action. Please don't further embarrass yourself.
We need CC to see how US sales will shake out. They lost some ALR sales, but they are now selling Stat Pak and DPP themselves at much higher margins. We also don't know how badly Detemine Combo will gut all POC HIV segments in the US. I was specifically looking for a comment about US HIV sales, and there wasn't one. That's a bit worrisome. Clearly, others had a negative reaction.
I don't know what was said outside of main presentation, but I have no doubt people were interested, as Sperzel has a good track record.
The fact that he never mentionsed that US sales were doing well was a killer. Also, no timeline for HIV Syph. That could take a couple of years.
As I said before, just rehashing PRs wasn't going to be.a good sign. Also, I got the impression that US sales are off to a slow start, which was the fear given Determine Combo.