This is a "wait-and'see" type deal. Blackberry is another Nant shareholder, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence. My question: did Epic and Cerner pass on this deal and, if so, why?
They haven't actually manufactured the test yet. Part of the issue is the test's extremely poor performance. A second issue is a WHO decision to limit POC testing to rural areas only. Hopefully, that will change as POC tests improve.
Hammered today. Of course, they're principally a European company. They've been wise to try and build businesses in the US and elsewhere. I think their big cash hoard will be used to further expand in the US.
That said, they've got so many projects in development that will almost surely be some successes. Regarding Ebola, it's still a bit strange that they've gotten no funding even as OSUR picked up $10 million for what will, almost certainly, be a product inferior to CEMI's.
Another near-term project Dengue, which may be ready later this year. That could be a big seller. Also, seems likely we'll get trials for DPP HIV-Syph for US later this year, although the approval process is, as we've seen, extremely lengthy.
You want this to be a great growth story, a dynamic company. It's just not. Is it terrible? No. Is management disastrously incompetent? No. At the moment, it's just another average company.
TRIB isn't much better, although I think that the product pipeline there is potentially much stronger. Also, TRIB has all but declared that they're going to make acquisitions, which means they'll get the low hanging fruit and OSUR will not. My favorite, of course, is CEMI, mostly because the CEO is a cut above, because they have a superior technology at the moment, and because the company is still undervalued relative to OSUR and TRIB.
They're clinging to that cash like grim death. They blew tons of cash on the OTC mess, and now they clearly don't want to part with any more. However, they need to kick start growth via acquisition, because they existing stable of products is tired, and I don't think the pipeline is particularly robust.
CEMI has been going up steadily on higher-than-usual volume. Why? There hasn't been any news, other than CE, which isn't much. Sperzel has been talking to investors, but he's done that before, to little effect.
Could it be that investors have merely awoken to the untapped value? Perhaps, OTOH, CEMI is in play. We know that TRIB raised cash explicitly for the purpose of acquisition. ALR hasn't made any moves recently, even has the company's financial condition has improved dramatically, and as it has focused increasingly on diagnostics. OSUR is struggling to grow, and sits atop a small pile of cash.
Whatever happens, I think the next few quarters will feature lots of action.
Face it, you guys got suckered by a relatively meaningless deal (from a revenue perspective). This stock will settle at around $5.50, as I predicted. It's not a great company. It's not particularly well-run. It's got competitors slicing chunks of market share in various product categories. Thin pipeline. It's been sitting on a pile of cash, but hasn't made any acquisitions. It's widely touted OTC product is an epic fail. Need I say more?
Not that meaningful from a revenue perspective because, as we know, most HIV testing in Europe isn't POC. That said, this will be the first of several announcements this year and next. I count at least 9 projects currently in various stages of development. No doubt we'll hear about additional ones in the future. Not all will lead to marketable products, but some certainly will.
Absolutely. Also doesn't make pie-in-the-sky promises, and doesn't pump out phony PR's. This guy could be CEO at a major diagnostics company, no problem. We shouldn't believe that he is perfect, nor that every decision he takes will be the right one. However, it's really looking good right now.
As the year progresses, we will (hopefully) hear more about the development of new products, and the regulatory progression of others. This will gently lift the stock price toward a more reasonable valuation. At minimum, the company should go for 2x 2016 revenue, which is around $6.50 a share. A more likely multiple would be 2.5x, which is around $8.
This project is completed. The CDC spent a big chunk of change on this. The results have presumably been evaluated by now, or soon will be. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of this, but should know soon enough.