Sperzel is a smart guy, and he's surely going to try and take advantage of the situation, one way or another. I'll be very interested to see how this turns out, but I know he's not going to want to see it all peter out and the stock fall back again.
I had speculated that Sperzel's job was either to "fix" the company up for sale or to use it as a base to build a far bigger company via acquisition. I'm still not sure which it is, but I'm leaning more toward to "fix" scenario at the moment.
Let's not get greedy, now.
I think OSUR is sort of desperate at this point. The stock is very richly valued. They're sitting on cash earning nothing. The growth prospects are modest, and CEMI is poised to take a chunk out of the very important oral fluid market. What's more, OSUR has little international presence, where CEMI does well. CEMI has many other attractive qualities.
TRIB is clearly ready to buy. CEMI would make an excellent fit, as TRIB is strong in Africa and CEMI in Latam. Likewise, TRIB has no US oral fluid product. What's more, DPP might help improve TRIB's cardiac products.
ALR and CEMI have flirted before, but ALR is riding high at the moment. The bad blood between LS and ALR isn't an issue any more. ALR would utterly dominate HIV market in the US and Latam with CEMI. What's more, ALR could really make use of the DPP technology, more than other companies, and ALR would love the positive PR associated with an Ebola test. The cost of acquiring CEMI is, well, nothing from ALR's perspective.
There may be other interested parties which I haven't named. Let's put it this way. If CEMI were definitely on the block, there might be 10 to 15 serious inquiries.
TRIB, OSUR, and ALR are ready to buy. There are a paucity of targets. Eventually, attention would be focused on CEMI and its ridiculous undervaluation. Sperzel will sell, given the right price. I'm going to say that price is $10 to $12.
Actually, got $110 million. So, they're sitting on $120 million or so. That's much more than would be needed for R&D, etc. They are clearly going hunting. Will be interesting to see in what direction they intend to go. Right now, CEMI is sitting there at 50% off. That's got to be tempting.
Aethlon is seeking approval of the device which is designed to filter viral particles and shed glycoproteins from the blood of infected patients. I guess the idea is to lower viral load enough that the patient's immune system isn't overwhelmed. Of course, they're going to have to pair this (if it works) with a rapid test.
The Aethlon device could be a revolution in medicine, or a complete dud.
I've seen this before. When trust in management is low, capital raises cause the stock to fall. When it's high, the stock usually doesn't move much.
The list acquisition as a priority. We're about to enter a period of consolidation, led by the high-flying Alere. I'm fairly sure TRIB is going to be a player.
I almost forgot about OSUR, which is really a laggard at this point. Are they going to allow TRIB or ALR to grab CEMI and thus further erode OSUR's US HIV franchise? There is absolutely no way to justify OSUR's valuation given its growth prospects. They spent a fortune on OTC HIV when they could have had CEMI. Now, they risk losing that, too.
Sperzel has done lots of M&A in the past, and I have no doubt that he'd encourage the BOD to pull the trigger at the right price. I'm thinking that price is in the 3 times revenue range, which would be $95 to $100 million or so. That's about $10. I think a bidding war might get it up to $12.
TRIB will soon have a fresh $100 million. They were cash constrained, so that's no surprise, but the first stated purpose of the raise is acquisition. I had predicted that, with ALR riding high, there would be a rush to acquire smaller diagnostics companies.
At first glance, TRIB and CEMI seem to have much overlap. However, TRIB doesn't have an equivalent to DPP, TRIB doesn't have an oral fluid product, TRIB can't do mulitplex at the moment, and TRIB is stronger in Africa vs. CEMI in Latam.
It seems obvious to me that CEMI might very well become a company of interest to ALR, TRIB and others. It's astonishing that CEMI sits here at $4 when TRIB is clearly on the acquisition warpath and when ALR is flying high. There should be a $2 takeover premium on this stock, minimum.
I think you can probably buy it when the valuation is the same as CEMI. As I said earlier, CEMI was way too cheap and OSUR way too expensive. SInce that time, OSUR has come down and CEMI has gone up. CEMI still has an REV/EV multiple of around 1. OSUR is still close to 3. I'm thinking that they'll meet in the middle, at 2. That would mean CEMI at around $8 and OSUR at about $4.50.
I think one of Sperzel's main achievements thus far has been to create the conditions to monetize the DPP technology. That adds value to the company, value which has not been factored into the share price. CEMI is still trading in the 1x forward revenue range, despite all the deals undertaken. No, not everything will make money in the end, but there will be winners among the various projects.
No news. Could we be seeing the beginning of a rise on takeover speculation. ALR is flying very high, and this would really aid their HIV franchise (no pun intended) in the US and beyond. Not to mention, they'd get DPP with all its various new-found apps. At what price might the BOD consider a sale? $10? $12?
You just have to continue to be patient. CEMI is a buyout candidate, but not at these low prices. When the stock gets to $8, they can sell the company for $12 or $13.
I think the upper bound could be around $6, but everything would have to work like clockwork for that to happen, ie DPP HIV-Syph making rapid progress toward approval, HIV sales in US showing gains, DPP HIV-Syph continuing to win business outside the US, and perhaps Dengue or Ebola generating revenue. I think the lower bound is in the $5 range.
Apparently Brazil had not payed as of last week's call. We heard last year that it was the World Cup and then the election. Those were over many months ago, and yet no payment.
If FIO places large orders for DPP HIV-Syph, the question arises: do you fill those orders if previous debts have yet to be paid? I'm not sure exactly how this is handled, but you can't have an ever-expanding receivables line with Brazil.
Left price target at $8, but indicated that they may very well move it up as this "exciting" year goes forward. The fact that this stock sits at $4 is beyond ridiculous. The DPP patent alone is worth $50 million.
Sounds as if Dengue and Yellow Fever aren't going to be on the multiplex headed for West Africa. Just Malaria and Ebola. I think this an effort to address the main problem, which is the fact that the latter two diseases present in very similar fashion, at least initially. Also, there is the question of time. CEMI wants field testing to begin pronto.
I agree that Sperzel all but assured the market that CEMI's Ebola test will render the Corgenix one irrelevant. Corgenix shareholders are in the process of suing to prevent an acquisition at what they believe is too low a price. They seem to think their Ebola test is worth a fortune. They are clearly wrong.