i don't agree with your fair value of $97.00 at all & if i did i would be actively shorting the stock at $120 as potential failures are not reflected in the share price. that said, i am more in line with UBS. their upside scenario is $190 with the assumption that incyte successfully develops jakafi, incb'110 and '360 for cancer treatment. '40093 for hem-onc would also boost the possible upside target past $190.
+97 fair value really discounts the pipe too much in my opinion.
let me guess.....a 24 year old putz with a 15k stock trading account that you intend on mastering the universe with?
the beauty of being long the bulk of your position from $50 is that you can ignore emotions and idiots like yourself. incy is just fine and i am content to sit tight and do exactly what i said. i will add on a breakout which is multiple settles over $115. my last purchase was at $100.50 two weeks ago which i posted at the time.
one thing to say about you is that you do not say what you are trading, a price, etc... just blab about incy going down the toilet. overall, incy is doing just fine and i am content t sit.
p.s.. i missed the airdrop algo driven drop this morning and might buy tomorrow morning for a "trade" if we are off hard again.
I would respond, but it would be a waste of time and effort. Sure, I know nothing about the mkts. Let's agree on that......deal?
Last level I bought incy was $100.50 which I posted. I said it is range bound until a couple/few settles over $115 and that I was doing nothing in the $108-110 range. If incy drops to $100, or lower, I will but. Let me just add that since I last bought incy 10 days ago the Dow has dropped 1000 points and incy is still 5% higher.
Other than that. I know nothing about the mkts despite a masters in economics and finance.
very dull again. broad mkt getting smoked so it is easy for alog's to probe the downside and shirt sellers press the low prints. is we get back towards $100-103 i will buy. i don't think we are in a "breakout" until a couple of settles over $115. right now i think it is just chop & maybe even building a "bull flag".
boring couple of days. i think a little profit taking yesterday and sell stops today. overall i think incy has held up well today and we are seeing some other bio's turn around this afternoon. pretty soon you will see the mullets that bought the energy sector piling back into bio's and financials. i think incy is range bound until we get a couple of settles over $115 and then it will be a straight shot to $130.
First I would say that the Barclays report was "shockingly" bullish and I am surprised that we did not run up 7-8 dollars, but that might be because of option expiry tomorrow.
Next.....buyout.... I think that it's pretty clear that nothing is going to happen until phase 2 data is released. 2016 asco? I need to re-read to see when this data will be released since I forget.
Sales. Again, going from memory I think total plead sales for "everything" is 7b per year? I'd only say that if that is today's guess I'd imagine there is upside to that estimate. A a result, 5x sale for a buyout? What's that... About $180?
Whatever happens, I think we will be moving up strongly from here to the mid $130's and then we wait on phase 2. That looks good and $160 is possible in a year. My 2 cents.
OPEC production hits a 3 year high and still growing. Get ready for Iranian bbls!
China devaluation is sending very bullish signals for energy-NOT! China will be lucky to stabilize their situation.
Americans, Europeans and the Japanese....they have the wealth and money and are aging rapidly. Said another way, they are past peak consumption for materials and energy, but they will spend their last dime for better health. Macro fundamentals for healthcare are only getting better!
My guess is that etf selling on the close is driving the late dips. Seeing the same action on multiple stocks as money exits the sector in favor of energy. I don't agree with the money flows, but it is what it is and has allowed long term investors the opportunity to add on a dip while we get the "fresh look" at the ever increasing pipeline and improving fundamentals.
looks like sector ratation out of bio and into energy. bad move to "value shop" in energy. I've not added anymore incy, but happy to if it is back to my last unfilled buy stop area 99.50.
I am not sure how you correlate $1.3t of equity wiped out in the oil mkt as putting a wet blanket on the pharma mkt. the 2008 meltdown was a result of a systemic meltdown from an over leveraged market, too much leverage by banks and the housing bubble bursting. From 2008 until last year we have had zero to negative real interest rates which has led to a commodities bubble and massive build out of capacity. The Saudis popped that bubble last fall and are taking the high cost producers to the woodshed. That said, the consume is a massive beneficiary gaining a significant cost savings on energy expenditures giving them more disposable income and allowing them to pay down debt.
Pharm is in the early phase os a super cycle where the combination of genomics and raw computing power is coming home to roost. The payoffs will be immense in the coming years and those that miss this will be very sad. One simple question, how much would you pay for an extra 10-15 years of life vs. 6 months? What's your quality of life to you as well as productivity? We are at the advent of spectacular gains in science!
I appreciate a differing opinion and would like to hear why you are really negative. The commodity mkt meltdown is weak IMHO.
always a balancing act. dare i say it, but given that sales are doing what they are, the potential for lable expansion, the cancer portfolio, ra, etc...i think the quarterly results puts tehm firmly in the "buyout stable" for big pharm.
I appreciate what you are saying about option activity, but that might come after a large rally beforehand. PCYC was my best stock of the past year. The CEO said numerous times that the company was not for sale at any price.....when pcyc was $100-125.. We know how that turned out!
I assume that the new jobs will be largely created when the building is complete. 18-24 months? So, incy could have much more need for added bodies in 2 years from now.
Overall, they are positioning for further growth and that tells me that is what a buyer would want vs. a stagnant/mature company. dewy beach real estate bump!
suspect that the shorts made good money this week. they managed to run out any momentum length that jumped into INCY and might have even shaken out some margin players. i'll say it again, the move from 115 to sub 105 was on light volume and i view this as just another opportunity for a company just entering the sweet spot for growth. ya'll know what/where i added and lets see what happens. i did not buy my last bit on the 102+ settle because it was too far above that level. so i have a bit of powder dry should we drop again.
looking for a move to $110 isn over the next 7-10 days. earnings.... everyone will talk their position so i don't really have much to say about them. have a great weekend.
Looks very much like a reversal day and the board is dead. Did everyone bail?
Will look for confirmation tmmrw and a move back to 110ish