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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

soozanie 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 21, 2014 1:44 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2008
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  • soozanie by soozanie Nov 21, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    just got an "alert". looks like someone just bought double the open in on the 7.00 call at .75.
    seems like the rocket ship fueling up. time will tell.

  • Reply to

    This move is super bullish !!

    by bonkenx Oct 31, 2014 1:10 PM
    soozanie soozanie Nov 2, 2014 7:35 AM Flag

    My view is longer term. I believe label expansion, new drug approvals for cancer and r.a./inflammatory disease will lead to annual revenue of 2b in 2-3 years with plenty of growth thereafter. As a result, I believe valuation with. Obviously trend much higher.

    Price target for 24 months is completely reasonable at $140 with a potential $210/220 target with positive immunotherapy results down the road. Here is the "thing"......I think it is far more likely that incy is bought out before hitting is true price potential.

    P.s. Note how bio techs generally peak out at 10b mkt cap and then it appears the next valuation range for publically traded companies is 30-40b. Said another way, if this move gets going it will be long and strong.

  • soozanie soozanie Oct 12, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    I think you are naive to make such a statement. The antiviral is mainly used to give body a chance to produce enough antigens to slow the cascade of the viral infection. Said another way, let the body catch up to battling the virus. No doubt the blood transfusion helped(personal opinion) but your comment seems to be biased.

  • end of the quarter and short sellers marking the price as low as possible. i am loading up teh boat here for a trade back up in the 1h of oct.

  • soozanie by soozanie Sep 28, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    I've posted before that ECYT reminds me of PCYC of ten years ago. Early bumps along the road, but a cutting edge and novel approach to treatment. ECYT hit a big bump on May 2nd and some people are still bitter and burned by that day. I've stuck with ECYT because I believe in their approach to treatment and like the data presented. Do I "buy it" ? I dunno, but I can say that it is certainly not neutral or negative. Potentially this validates the platform and ecyt can go back and try ovarian cancer for round number 2.

    I think ecyt will open around 12-13 and settle out at that level. I think plenty of money that bought in the 6-7 area will be happy to sell out for a doublet and shorts will gobble up those shares.....hence not much of a trade range after the initial gap. Overall, if we receive further validation I believe that shares will be trading $60 over time.

  • Reply to

    Back to the $70's

    by posterman632 Sep 12, 2014 11:20 AM
    soozanie soozanie Sep 13, 2014 6:28 PM Flag

    Forward margins keep sliding and sour grades are ripping. Coker margins are not helping like they have in the years past. Peak gasoline demand is behind us and smart money will sell into the gc gasoline strength being fueled by fall maintenance.

    Eps estimates keep sliding and the Ebitda/ev ratio is at historic highs. No compelling value here until mock is back into the mid/low 70's

  • soozanie soozanie Sep 13, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    Merck announced that they were re-evaluating their entire development partnership pipeline. Ecyt hitting a major bump was the decider I think. Why pony up another 600-700 million without seeing a clear outcome. In my opinion, I think Merck would rather let ecyt deal with sorting out the issues at hand and buy the company for 3-4b in a few year than to pump more money into ecyt at this juncture.

    I might add that I believe in selective small molecule delivery. Some think immunotherapy is the future, but I think that is just part of the treatment portfolio oncologist will have at their disposal in the coming years(incy is my immuno play)

  • I Said this month ago. ECYT is an early stage small molecule drug company that is in the process of developing a new, and more effective, targeting/delivery method for cancer drugs. they also are working on similar drugs for r.a. which has large potential.

    i truly believe that if you look back at ecyt in 5 years you will be kicking yourself for either not holding on, or not buying at current prices. pcyc was a similar experience for me. the market under appreciated their drug molecules and when they too hit a bump the stock imploded. 10 years later and 100k investment is worth millions. unlike ecyt, pcyc had a much shakier balance sheet.

    bottom line. last week was nice, but really just noise. ecyt could rally $10-20 and it would not reflect the true value of the company. i anticipate positive news in early oct and more positive news in 2015. bottom line, i am fine to own ecyt if it drops $2 or rallies $4. either way i am not selling any shares, but would be a buyer $6.25 and lower.

  • buying scale down 6.40 to 6.05 and kicking out 7.05 to 7.25. continue to trade the range while waiting for some positive news if/when.

    reading about immunotherapy being the future vs. small molecule drugs. pretty funny given the cost difference. either way, it is long from over for ecyt.

WNR
43.18+0.29(+0.68%)Nov 26 4:07 PMEST

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