Grinding higher. Year end tax loss selling in energy while money flows back into biotech. The haters are gonna hate,hate,hate.....but I don't care. Still think the charts will dictate larger money flows. Breaking over $125 points us to $160-165.
I said it before And saying it again. There was sector rotation out of biotech and pharm into energy and commodities in general. This started over the summer and the biotech selling was amplified by headlines like the Hillary tweet, valeant drama,and biogen alzheimer failure. I said it would end poorly for bottom packers in energy and am being proven correct. Money is definitely being rotated back into the sector as you can clearly see by the sectors stellar performance Thursday and Friday while the broad mkt imploded.
The demographics remain the same. The western world is aging quickly and that is a negative for energy demand and bullish for healthcare. That won't change.
Incy volatility has been extreme to say the least. I think the recent move from $115 to $90 before bouncing demonstrated that. Algo's and traders blindly sold a headline without evaluating the actually data. Bottom line, damage was done and the dust has now settled. I think next week will be dull to positive with option expiry, but we will see.
Charts. Triple bottom at $90 and the stock, although testing that support, has consistently settled well above that level. Looks like a diamond top formation, but if we breakout to the upside over $125 I'd think we can run to $165 just off the charts. Time will tell.
Buyout? Definitely a possibility and I doubt the price would be much above $165. Not long for a buyout, but I do think it is possible. Alny, Isis, Sgen, acad and possibly Vrtx would also be some potential targets.
P.s. How do I block people on the boards? Would like to ignore the #$%$.
You have that right, blah blah blah. More meaningless notice from you and your butt buddy!
Last week we witness the 3rd, and most violent/extreme collapse to $90.00 in the last 2 1/2 months. Short sellers try to create panic spreading false rumors and then the algos kick into gear and run sell stops or move the mkt to a point where the short term liquidity gap is met and the short term imbalance is met. The first gap was when the Dow dropped 1,000 points(a larger problem), the second gap was on the Hillary tweet(she'll shut up for a few million to the Clinton foundation) and the third time was Friday when the safety/response rates of epo was totally misread and misinterpreted. Concerning Friday, the educated investors reviewed the data and know it is "solid" and the safety of updosing was great.
Look closely at the net volume trades and prices from Friday. A short seller got off a few blocks around $110 average before the airdrop to $90ish when 500k block were traded(sell side) and then (bayside) in the low 90's. We then saw those early shorts covered and some small fresh buy orders in the mid to upper 90s before the close. That said the damage was done and people lost money for nothing more than mkt manipulation.
We should amend the bogus drop and I think Incy will be back to 117-120 shortly and retesting the highs on the Lilly r.a. Data & filing.
That's my rant. Have a good day.
P.s. Vise, you said you still are short and had not covered. Good luck and please stay short!
i also hear ya' jacosa re how crowded the r.a. Field is. That said, the Lilly sales machine is massive and could put their drug at the top of the heap in a few years. Well, maybe that's not so true as people won't switch from Humira or enbrel until it stops working for them. That said, that happens very often so there will be room for growth. We also have the advantage of a better drug for treatment.
I have to say that I think the market misinterpreted the data on Friday and responded as if we had a bad safety profile or ineffective drug which simply isn't the case. Pre Lilly news I was thinking we would bounce back to $115 very quickly, but now we could rip right back to $130.
I'd suggest going to the website to read the full text. 74%disease control rate is nothing to sneeze at. The president of The society used the adjective profound regarding the melanoma results.
Friday was a classic case of selling the headline without reading the story. That just kicked the alto traders into high gear as resting sell stops were flushed out of the market. Wishing that I kept the shares I picked up ahead of the $90 support and sold on the close. I"ll have to try and buy some Jan call spreads early on Monday.
""I think the results are very promising and once again demonstrates the potential for combination regimens in immunotherapy. In this case pembrolizumab was combined with an IDO inhibitor and demonstrated responses in more than half of the subjects with different types of cancer. The study, I think, needs to be interpreted cautiously because the numbers of patients treated are still small, but if this can be replicated in a larger population, this could be very significant for bringing immunotherapy to a larger number of patients with cancer," said Howard L. Kaufman, MD, FACS, SITC President."
"ts (as of August 21, 2015), is a new combination immunotherapy regimen that was generally well tolerated. Very few patients experienced dose limiting toxicity or grade 3 treatment-related adverse effects. No grade 4 treatment-related adverse effects or deaths were reported. Furthermore, the study showed a low discontinuation rate for treatment-related adverse effects (2%). Efficacy results included an overall response rate of 53% and a disease control rate of 74%, with an especially profound effect in patients with melanoma."
I fortunately found/read the data right when it was released. Melanoma data looked great while solid tumor data was so/so, but I am not sure how responsive solid tumors are to other treatments, so maybe it really is neutral/positive. Safety data was great even with dose escalation. That's a big plus considering the issues other immunotherapy drugs have had.
Price action sucked! I assumed I misread something or was missing some news.mthe only thing I could assume was that solid tumors was a bust, which it wasn't. Then I figured that the street was only adding $10-20 per share for valuation for solid tumors. I bought some shares ant 91.00 on average for a trade and flipped out for $10.00. Still long my core position and content.
Short sellers, and those that bailed, may be covering on Monday when then objectively look at that data.
What presentation remained under embargo until the market closed? Unless i am missing something else, the data was online roughly when the collapse happened. I even posted some comments about what I took from my first read. Regardless, I thought the data was not not so bad as the mkt response.
i went through the data & although it is not knocking the cover off the ball, the data looked decent. well tolerated overall. melanoma data solid, but the other types of cancer were "decent" in response rates. i too can't wait to hear the take of the analysts(scientists).
Glad to see that your mom woke you up for school early and you were able to post something useless as usual. Let me add, using a "commodity" term for a development stage biotech shows your foolishness. There is no "glut" of supply &I the majority of companies are not "storing" unsold inventory.
Back to the basement for you.
crawl back into your parent basement and disappear!
Viseslinger the worthless puke simply can not help himself. I think you should leave your parents basement and go enjoy the fall weather before winter arrives. It won't be long before your pimply #$%$ will be stuck back in that dark dungeon surfing bulletin boards looking for someone that cares what you say/think.
Made great money on incy buying sub $110 and sold $130/135/140 calls on the run to $125. So, let me say it for everyone. F off and get lost you loser!
Tuesday Nov 3rd earnings. Anyone know if they are mark to market accounting ingn stake? I assume so which would mean they swing back to a loss this quarter.
Incyte abstracts to be presented at SITC include:
Preliminary results from a phase 1/2 study of epacadostat (INCB024360) in combination with pembrolizumab in patients with selected advanced cancers (Abstract #142)
Friday, November 6, 2015, 12:00-12:15 PM EST
I'd imagine Friday afternoon will be far more telling and interesting for this weeks price action.
Not sure what percentage that will be captured, but agree that it should be significant. Let's say you are right about 1/3rd and we say that's of 15b of just the Humira mkt. that would be north of 1b per year in royalty payments to incy....yes?
If you think that capture rate is in 2 1/2 yeas what is your price target in 2 1/2 years?
"AbbVie said Humira sales climbed 12 percent to $3.65 billion and would have climbed 19 percent without a hit from currency rates. The drugmaker relies on Humira for most of its revenue."
INCY shorts/haters have a smell of desperation. it'll be enjoyable to watch them all disappear for the balance of the year!
Liar? F off you useless puke! I post my trades when I am making then and say they are "day trades". Granted, sometimes I'll hold for 2 days, but I am up front with everything that I do unlike you and your compatriots that just try to bash incy. You've been wrong for as long as incy has been public and you will continue to be wrong!
#$%$ off #$%$!