I believe that now that Icahn has lowered his cost to close the zero via reg/special dividends he will position to sell cvi off. hfc would be my first guess as a potential buyer, but wnr could nicely integrate cvi/cvrr. That said, wnr is still integrating nti so maybe less likely.
I see cvi trending higher and heading to 55.00 regardless. First half 2014 earnings look solid and we won't have $1.40 RINS this year. Mid cont margins are solid and wti/Brent should be close to a peak....ready to weaken.
price to revenue cvi is fairly cheap. Rin exposure is going to be massively lower in Q1 Q3 on a year on year basis. ULSD/CBOB margins vs. wti have been climbing steadily the last month with wti/brent weakening again. re crude,,,, the usgc is getting to its "saturation point" where we could see a significant "back up" of bbls into cushing that would drive wti spreads into deep contango and push wti/brent back towards -25.00/-27.00 bbl.
all very good catalysts for upside earnings revisions and ebitda/EV expansion over teh coming months. I think $44 provides some chart resistance which will give way and then we see cvi shoot to $53-55 around the march earnings release. if we get a good conf call/guidance at that point in time we could be looking at a re-test of last years highs by memorial day. downside seems well supported in the $33-36 area so decent risk reward even at current levels imho.