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Valero Energy Corporation Message Board

soozanie 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 13, 2016 1:24 PM Member since: Apr 20, 2008
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  • soozanie by soozanie Jan 13, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    mkt is freaked out over their purchase.

  • soozanie by soozanie Jan 13, 2016 7:32 AM Flag

    Today's pivot is 90.00ish and pivot 1 upside target is 94.00ish. I need a 95.00+settle with follow through to call a bottom. Time will tell, but I am not holding my breath given the gutting of the past month.

    Merck bought iomet to pursue IDO/TDO pathways. Maybe that freaked some out yesterday? We have our deal with that Chinese company for PD-1 so I did not think much of the Merck news.

  • soozanie by soozanie Jan 13, 2016 7:26 AM Flag

    Not looking to spread rumors and only trying to see if any iota of truth to rumors I picked up last night. Gild considering a bid for Incy? Coming out of San Fran jpm meeting and it appears hedgies talking. No March or June call buying yesterday on Incy so I give it little weight. Storyline was they want the immo onc assets and would sell Bari to Lilly for 5+billion.

  • Reply to

    Lilly Presentation

    by medxwatcher Jan 12, 2016 6:59 PM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 12, 2016 8:48 PM Flag

    So Bari filing goes from by the end on 2015, to launch expected in 2017. I'd imagine that implies NDA could be as late as June 30th. Might explain part of the $20 dump this last 10days, but it's not as if the filing isn't going to happen!

  • I put no weight in it, but some of the m&a hedge fund chatter out of San Fran is that gild is going to make a bid on Incy to boost their onco pipe. Apparently the belief is that they can strip out Bari and sell it to Lilly for 6-8b. Not sure about the Bari valuation and am curious if that makes sense to you Jac.

  • Reply to

    JPM presentation

    by jacosa Jan 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 12, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    i think over thinking this. people stopping out of incy and index related selling. massive xodus/ the last time INCY was this oversold on the rsi is from august 2014. there is also a bullish divergence on the hourly charts which indicates that todays price action was a "washout". only time will tell, but i think this was very technically driven along with liquidations.

    ML report certainly has enough potential catalysts for the 2-3 year time frame that it might be hard to see this price action on the charts looking back in 3 years! very surprised that lilly, mrk or gild has not gone after the entire company. maybe that happens, maybe it does not, but it was certainly ugly!

    i might add, 90.00 was the triple bottom. if we do not get back above that level in the next couple of days we could see more selling. we would need a key reversal on the daily chart to set a low and that is hard to see right now. can't imagine a $95.00 settle tmmrw and up day on thurs and fri!

  • Reply to

    Timber - you are all way to optimistic.

    by viseslinger Jan 12, 2016 10:24 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 12, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    what are you talking about? nobody here is optimistic on share price given the gutting the sector has taken. the price action has been terrible and today's action shows you again the negative reaction to positive new. longs are selling into rallies to cut exposure to the whole sector as people cut back on the index length.

    last response on this "thread".

  • soozanie by soozanie Jan 12, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    Jac, i think i found it as it was just emailed to me. good lord they are bullish if this is the report.

    "2016 should shed light on ruxolitinib and epacadostat
    Data from the Phase 3 trial of ruxolitinib in pancreatic cancer (JANUS1) and from two
    Phase 2 trials in colorectal and breast cancers are expected in 2016. We estimate that
    ruxolitinib could translate to over $3B (not risk adjusted) opportunity in solid tumors.
    Phase 3 study evaluating epacadostat and Keytruda for first line treatment of patients
    with advanced or metastatic melanoma is expected to begin in 1H16. The eight tumor
    specific cohorts of a Phase 2 trial of epacadostat and Keytruda are currently enrolling
    patients. The company also has several ongoing Ph1/2 combination studies of
    epacadostat with Opdivo, durvalumab, and atezolizumab. We think epacadostat could be
    an approximate $5B (not risk adjusted) sales opportunity."

  • Reply to

    Negative reaction to good news

    by soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:45 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 12, 2016 7:47 AM Flag

    Either way, they are standing by their rating and price target. This much has not changed. Bottom line, we are in the grips of a bear mkt in biotech and nobody can say when that will end. My conspiracy theorist in me thinks bank traders have knocked the sector down to spark m&a and those hefty fees!

  • soozanie by soozanie Jan 12, 2016 7:28 AM Flag

    Check out the Bloomberg article this morning. Given that Joe Biden singled them out saying that "they have to cure cancer" tells me they lobby big time. Seeing that Bluecross will pay for Moonshots genetic testing prior to treatment is amazing. Good news in general, but b.s. That it appears they will only pay moonshot, for now.

    The article highlights the need/focus/future of combo therapies for cancer in the future. Exactly what Incy is all about!

    Expecting another down day since it is Tuesday and we trader lower everyday!

  • soozanie soozanie Jan 12, 2016 7:22 AM Flag

    As much as I'd love to believe it, they did not spend 32b for a jak drug in trials. You might want to look deep at balalta's pipeline. They were bought for rare disease portfolio.

  • soozanie soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:48 PM Flag

    Because there is zero chance the majority of shareholders would vote their shares to sell at $114 which is the share price you are suggesting. They would have to pay 130-140 or 26-27b. Plus baxalta is focused on a totally different segment vs. Incy.

  • Reply to

    Negative reaction to good news

    by soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:45 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:09 PM Flag

    never found the $145 repeated target or reiterated buy. i called my broker and ml and he did not find it either, but just a brief comment in a sector recap.

  • Reply to

    JPM presentation

    by jacosa Jan 11, 2016 4:57 PM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:07 PM Flag

    i looked at the presentation and liked it. that said, the bear mkt that is gutting the sector shows no sign of ending. i am really starting to wonder about something looking back at the last 5-6 months. could the price of small/medium sized bio's been stretched enough that deal flow halted. the net result could be bank trading desks selling/shorting/pounding names know that it will trigger more investment banking fees for the firms when the m&a kicks into gear. just a thought and that said i think the company could be sold for $130-135 right now vs. the $200+ we all thought last summer.

    i like the presentation, but just do not know what can cause incy to catch a bid and rally. we are off $26 in less than 1 month and 33% from the highs from september. absolutely ugly any way that you slice it. i picked up shares around 98.50-99.00 avg for a trade which now appear to be a long term investment!!

  • Reply to

    Negative reaction to good news

    by soozanie Jan 11, 2016 9:45 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 11, 2016 11:26 AM Flag

    BoA/ML reiteration of buy and $145 target..... where did you see/read this? i use ML full service for some of my business and they did not have any new report on incy.

  • goes to show you how bad the mood is in the sector. no bueno for the bulls when you get this price action, but no point doing much when you are $40 off the highs other than waiting it out. that said, Incyte’s PI3Kδ inhibitor is what excites me!

  • Reply to

    4th quarter revenue estimate

    by maddison3 Jan 10, 2016 3:53 PM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 10, 2016 4:35 PM Flag

    dont q4 sales generally slow down and then pick up again in q1?

  • Reply to

    Gilead Momelotinib vs. Ruxolitinib

    by the.croupier Jan 10, 2016 11:08 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 10, 2016 4:33 PM Flag

    As long as we keep the board about Incy, act like adults, etc.... I don't mind. I figure that maybe I learn something and discover a potential investment. That said, gern is not worth the risk to me at this stage of the rather but powerball tickets.

  • Reply to

    Gilead Momelotinib vs. Ruxolitinib

    by the.croupier Jan 10, 2016 11:08 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 10, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    I made good money on pcyc and held until ABBV. That said, JNJ did not discover or develop ibrtinib, but paid 975 to partner on. Pretty much totally developed by pcyc.

    Re the gern study, there is nothing really to it until we see a larger dataset. Time will tell, but I've seen too many companies flame out when they could not repeat results in larger studies.

  • Reply to

    Gilead Momelotinib vs. Ruxolitinib

    by the.croupier Jan 10, 2016 11:08 AM
    soozanie soozanie Jan 10, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    And the size of the last study was? They will be very late to the party at best while Incy has added more new drugs to the market and further developed their pipe.

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