Nice that LG is back. Guidance is there. Missed the chance to swing trade that move above $11 the other day, but the drop to $9.5 doesn't change anything.
Thanks for this thorough assessment. Maybe add that the risk to revenue collection has abated due to the 1) state of Illinois paying its bills in a more timely manner AND 2) the shift to managed care.
Energy efficiency is inversely related to the price of oil to some extent. IMO, we're okay above $85/bbl. Brisbin says $60/bbl.
In regards to Wedbush's low ball $10 target, Brisbin blames a lack of management credibility due to the decline of the business and various bunglings post-IPO. IMO, Wedbush is intentionally under-targeting to make future results appear more impressive. It's a neat trick.
Brisbin stated in the last CC that a bolt on acquisition would be in the energy efficiency division. There is an article on Ft Alphaville titled "The Dark Side of Data Centers" that describes the current state of data center efficiency. The data center efficiency sector is still pretty fragmented. So I think WLDN can pick up a regional data center project management company for around $9 million. One I like a lot is Evolve Data Center Solutions in Houston. Might cost more than $9, but I think this is the kind of bolt on Brisbin is considering. It combines both infrastructure and efficiency.
There is a lot to like about ADUS. Steadily growing impressive cash flow (DCF NPV around $26). Excellent business model -- hitting the home care sweet spot where hospitals need it most, which pretty much guarantees growth. Considering the huge stock appreciation, insider sale has been negligible. No debt. I have a small starter position because it may dip into the teens for a short time, but I am somewhat enamored.
I think management's credibility will be resolved in their favor as they announce new projects and maintain 6% margins. The 2012 goodwill write-off was required due to the doubtful transition from subcontract to self-perform. That transition was successful, thus the goodwill in the true sense of the word as opposed to the accounting sense, appears now to have been validated by the new ConEd modification. The idea that they could have repurchased 40% of the company in 2012 is pretty outlandish since they were in technical breach of Wells Fargo revolver at that time. But I agree that the stock now should be range bound for a while $10-12, pending further catalysts per previous CCs.
I look at cash flow and earnings out ten years. Assume 86 cents and 12,000,000 growing 15% next 2 years then 5 % for 4 years then 2% the next 4, then 0% in perpetuity. Assume shares grow .75% per year. All of these look like reasonable assumptions considering current earnings and recent management statements. This NPV calculation is $17.95. Take a 20% margin of error off that at you get a minimum valuation of $14.36. However, I figure it will take the market a few quarters for WLDN to actually validate this valuation because management has somewhat of a credibility issue. That's why I say $11. I'll reassess sometime before next earnings.
Isn't it funny how things turn out when you listen to reason rather than half-baked ideas? I plan to sell a quarter of my holdings this morning at ... wait a sec... that's a 25% return since Mar 23rd! I'll hold the rest till I see how next earnings pan out. Good luck.
I see what you mean. It may be a positive or a negative. Now that CYNO has to compete with VRX, the game changes a little. CUTR? definitely not a "BO" but they have tech that CYNO would want and other tech that VRX would want. I'll hold my CYNO for now.
If Imetelstat succeeds, my investment increases to maybe $20 or $30. If it fails, my investment goes to $0. Ending the partial release pushes the odds in favor of success. Okay, I'll patiently wait to see if Imetelstat can be redeemed from worms and wasting clay.
Not particularly. I see a sector that is not much in favor and a company that had a bumpy ride. Investors are probably waiting for another quarter before committing again. Although CUTR stock price has been very resilient considering their poor sales performance. CUTR should be trading below $9. CYNO should be above $24. But as small caps, we know these things take time to iron out.
CBIN's S-1 came out after FFKY's Q2 report and noted that " First Financial reports, which remains subject to Community’s review, a Consolidated Net Book Value totaling $14,874,000 at June 30, 2014. " So far, the deal proceeds without adjustment.
I post most buys and sells on the respective message board. Sometimes I forget to post and trades don't match exactly. I have a watch list of about 200 stocks which 1) have well-managed risk, such as low debt, decent moat, etc, and 2) have stumbled or been a poor performer with reasonable chance of turnaround, and 3) have poor trading liquidity which keeps out the clowns -- most of the time. Today I bought more YUME and HWBK.