Petit moi?!? You're kidding? True, I wish I had listened to my own advice and sold everything Dec 2014 instead of making two very bad investments. I think I'll stop posting completely. This'll be the last. Ta ta.
FFO yield should roughly equal the long term treasury yield plus a risk premium. Long treasury yield should be roughly the same as GDP growth. I think GDP is expected to grow at roughly 2-3.5% over the next several years. The risk premium over the long treasury for this small but conservative REIT should realistically be around 3%. Thus, CTRE should have a maximum FFO yield of 6.5%. Today it has a FFO yield of 7.5%. If the FFO yield dropped to 6.5%, the stock would trade at $15. Another way to value is the NPV of DCF as represented by FAD. Assuming 1) FAD growth of 8% for two years then 5% thereafter, 2) a 9% discount rate and 3) .75% per year growth of shares, the stock should trade at $15. The share count will probably grow faster than that, but then growth would be higher even higher.
At this point it's a matter of probability. CTP has assets worth acquiring rather than building from scratch, it has goodwill, and contracts. Might happen at $1 might happen at $2. Who knows, maybe even $3. DHR once offered $7 knowing full well that partners were leaving or would leave in droves. I'm not pretending to know the sector that well, but I would hold here @ $1.36.
Indeed! I bet that what he was thinking when he sold all his shares! He probably raced to his desktop saying, "I MUST QUICKLY DELETE MY LINKED IN ACCOUNT IN ORDER TO STEALTHILY TAKE OVER THE COMPANY I DEMOLISHED!"
So are you being funny or do you really mean go buy em? Because you have said you thought the buyout would happen at $3-4 which would be a pretty good return from today's price for holding only a month or so. And in the even it is $4+, it is an excellent return. I happen to think there is no deal, but then again, this stock and this management are so full of head fakes, it's hard to judge. The only constant is that AWM sells at $4+
This stock has to be purchased on a huge leap of faith that earnings will go positive then increase 3x for several years. And so I wouldn't buy too much.
I added a few more today @ $7.0+ I'm now seeing some rotation into cyclicals, even shipping. I'm seeing steady home starts and auto sales. ISH has some problems which I think will be worked out, even by this dense management. Who knows, they might even find stronger rates for the Handys in a few months, if they can't find a buyer. But everyone makes mistakes, like me investing here way too early.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
because it's young and under followed with maybe some overhead from sellers. I like it. They have CPI escalators built in to their contracts. It should do well under reasonable interest rate swings.
Honestly, I forgot I had this one. I bought just because it seems like a conservative play in that sector. I intend to hold it. In a week or so I won't remember I have it. I am probably getting to old for this game.
There's not going to be any deal with DHR or anyone else, and Brian Sullivan should know. That is why he sold his shares on June 1st accounting for the huge volume. Management is going to try to ride this out. I'll keep my shares, but realistically, I'm looking for this to bottom at about $1.50.