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Clearfield, Inc. Message Board

sophia.leghorn 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 12, 2016 5:03 PM Member since: Feb 22, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Doubled down @ $3.7+

    by sophia.leghorn Dec 10, 2015 10:03 AM
    sophia.leghorn sophia.leghorn Feb 12, 2016 5:03 PM Flag

    I've been buying every day. What's it to you? I see Jeremy Zhu at Wedbush took a swing. The oil assets are totally discounted to zero at this price. I think this is still a winner and you should hold on to your shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Jan 22, 2016 9:54 AM Flag

    I like the company. Seems like a no-brainer. Forward PE=3. Trades .8xbook and .5xsales. Strong FCF every since since 2005. Insider sales above this price level at $28-30, including a VP. Worth the risk here. One negative, I think management may not be the elite crack troops investors really believed them to be, but I think the problems here are temporary.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Jan 15, 2016 7:10 PM Flag

    I had sold WLDN a while back in the $13-18 range because it had gotten ahead of itself and there was the "bolt-on" risk. Both the higher tax bracket and poor Q4 execution have now been priced into the stock. The financials will have easier comparable and Brisban will get his mojo back in Q1-2. Sub-$30 oil is most likely temporary. I'm thinking $40 again in 3 months based on continued reduction in capex by E&P, maybe a few more bankrupcties, and falling rig count -- maybe even some Fed easing and a rejuvenated consumer. Warm winter doesn't hurt crude OR WLDN.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Jan 15, 2016 7:02 PM Flag

    I had sold SCMP last Jan 26, 2015 during its huge "move" at $16.20. Not a bad price. I think Greenleaf will continue to both manage Amitiza worldwide and build a pipeline. Somewhere along the way, Amitiza can be easily sold. First, more than a handful of large drug companies would probably want it...and I think Greenleaf can't wait to deploy cash into riskier assets with much higher reward -- maybe a year away? I'll take the risk here and lower.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SOLD @ $31+

    by sophia.leghorn Apr 30, 2015 1:12 PM
    sophia.leghorn sophia.leghorn Jan 8, 2016 4:56 PM Flag

    Looks like this was a great call, selling at $31, but I think I was wrong about the contract. The contract is going to Telecordia. Watch out below! The rest of the business looks too flimsy. Watch for huge cost cuts, big goodwill write downs, strongly cut guidance. When it rains it pours.

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Jan 8, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    I made a decent return on this stock considering the business it's in and the market overall. I have a hard time seeing where future earnings are going to come from. Saudis look tapped. Brazil DOA. Oil and gas in the doldrums. Good luck.

  • Reply to

    The Breakout is at Hand!

    by ted10054 Jan 3, 2016 8:19 PM
    sophia.leghorn sophia.leghorn Jan 5, 2016 9:39 AM Flag

    They probably picked up the JV for a song.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I like being right! This is my second bank taken out lately. The other is PULB. Next year might just be YCB. Don't listen to posters like Barkindog who are wrong, wrong, wrong. They're posts are pure gibberish.

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 10, 2015 10:03 AM Flag

    The oil assets are being under-priced by a wide margin, presently about 60% discount to the last Q3 10K fair value. I understand the world is falling apart and junk is about to be decimated, this this is too large a discount.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 9, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    Charting isn't my forte but I think PCTI looks like it might be forming a bottom. Long term the stock has to be very attractive buyout. Historically this is a good price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 8, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Nice earnings. I think I'll hold on to this stock for a while. Who knows, might even get bought out. Famous last words, right?

  • Reply to

    Bought again at $12.10

    by sophia.leghorn Apr 18, 2013 3:45 PM
    sophia.leghorn sophia.leghorn Dec 8, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    I should have held. It was even just a small position. Anyway, congratulations to those who made money on this.

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 3, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    All the shares I purchased between $5.5 and $12 by my calculation are completely and forever sunk. That's the bad news. The good news is I think the company's plan just might work and there may be $4-5 in equity remaining after accounting for preferred, based on the following valuation: [1] The plan works, [2] PCTC, rail-ferry, Jones Act and head quarters are worth about $165 million, [3] the shipping sector in general improves. Call me Pollyanna, whoopdeedo!

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 3, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    Win, win, tipsy on gin. Going to the bank with great big grin.

  • sophia.leghorn by sophia.leghorn Dec 2, 2015 10:19 AM Flag

    Zacks is probably right as often as it is wrong, but this time their obviously computer generated sell is way off the mark. YCB still has tailwinds. More savings to be squeezed from FF. Income to be boosted by declining FF transaction costs. Interesting...the loan office they opened in Evansville, IN on ONB's home turf. ONB has not been aggressive enough in driving commercial loans...about time for another acquisition, esp. now that assets are over $10B. hmmmm, I think I'd sell my YCB for about $40

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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