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Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

soros_sr 61 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jan 8, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Celldex

    by ricardouno Apr 17, 2014 6:31 PM
    soros_sr soros_sr 20 hours ago Flag

    I didn't know that CDX-1401 was subcutaneously (CDX-110 - Rindo also is SQ).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr 21 hours ago Flag

    long_vrts2, Thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr 21 hours ago Flag

    long_vrts2, Thank you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr Apr 16, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    I think that large institutions are also buying what small investors are shedding. Up to this point, Celldex management has always overdelivered, this is why I am expecting at least ONE good news this year. That would calm the investors (including institutions) and show that AM and team CAN deliver... at this point, and after the several rounds of selling equity, the next step is to deliver, not to make more promises of new trials.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought 10,000 shares at $14.00 around 2:52p

    by long_vrts2 Apr 11, 2014 3:09 PM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 11, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    I will buy more towards the end of the week as well. I am not sure that this is a bottom as I have learned you can never call something a bottom or a top in stocks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr Apr 10, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    I don't like the ReACT trial very much, because the randomness due to the nature of the disease is exacerbated by the fact that these patients have been treated in different ways and the disease adapts differently to the previous therapies.

    HOWEVER, ReACT keeps on recruiting new sites and expanding. My guess is that if it wouldn't be working well, this would not be the case at this stage. Hear are the new sites for March, 2014 :

    On March 25, 2014:
    - Hartford Hospital, Hartford, CT
    - Tampa General Hospital, Tampa, FL
    - Memorial Cancer Institute, Hollywood, FL
    - Swedish Neuroscience Research, Seattle, WA

    On March 19, 2014
    - Stony Brook University Hospital, Stony Brook, NY

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ReACT trial results, Avastin naive arm: OS data

    by long_vrts2 Apr 9, 2014 2:01 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 9, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    The ASSUMPTION = extrapolation that Long makes is that both lines continue as if there were no deaths in either. My guess is that if the trend continues, there would be more deaths on the control arm and less on the Rindo arm, hence under this condition, his assumption is very conservative. It is very possible that the log-rank survival analysis would give p

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ReACT trial results, Avastin naive arm: OS data

    by long_vrts2 Apr 9, 2014 2:01 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 9, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    Long, thank you very much for the analysis and always connecting the dots with exceptional understanding. i think that the expectation from investors is along these lines. Celldex is at the stage that they should deliver results (not just more proposals) in the form of regulatory approval (hint, the FDA is not the only regulatory agency).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr Apr 7, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    Well, when the price went up, I was kicking myself for not buying more. I am doing it now. If any of the biotechs has a good chance of breaking out with good news, that is Celldex.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Review of CLDX Assets by Credit Suisse

    by hammerahead Apr 5, 2014 10:38 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 6, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    "hen we all have to be honest that Rindo is in a very tough tough disease state and has great early data but will probably be tested to the max to get a smooth approval"
    I don't agree here, Avastin got early approval with much less than Rindo had a few months ago. I think management should take a few opportunistic approaches. Celldex management as I know will always underpromise and overdeliver. I don't expect less of the company.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Did you enjoy the 5 star lunch today AM?

    by weightbayou Apr 4, 2014 4:09 PM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 4, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    W bayou, I am too waiting for results from CDX-110 (Rindo) or CDX-011 (Glemba). If there is a management team that eats lean, that is the Celldex management team. AM and the rest of Celldex management are what I want them to be: Methodical to the bone. However, I don't want them to go to every investor conference with the same rant and new promises (becoming another Una Ryan), I want them to deliver or just keep their mouth shut 'til they can.

    Here is why I think they will deliver: most of their clinical trials (except for 1135) have the following characteristics and were selected because:
    1. Have been already tested in humans -- not just mice -- They are not jumping blind in ANY of the clinical trials they now have. "Curing" cancer in mice is very easy, and most cancer researchers I know have evidence for one "cure" or another. Even I can delay cancer in mice significantly with a car battery, a pair of wires, a couple of needles, and oregano extract.
    2. These drugs have the best chance at early approval (rare conditions that qualify).
    3. They have a reasonable market size (not too rare of a condition). See, this is were CDX-1135 DID NOT fit in. They did VERY WELL in killing it instead of dragging the clinical trial beyond logic.
    4. The application of the drugs can be expanded to different conditions that are affected by the same pathway. This is the case for Rindo and Glemba.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • soros_sr soros_sr Apr 3, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    He hasn't finished writing yet (see the cont'n at the end of his message)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Accumulating more

    by soros_sr Apr 3, 2014 1:24 PM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 3, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Everybody tells you to buy only on its way up, but I was kicking myself for bot having bought more when it went up. I am expecting good news at some point in the future, before the year ends for sure.

  • Buying some more as the price drops, couldn't help it. $16.10 is too enticing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ACT IV trial ADDED one Site on April 1st

    by soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 11:35 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    Fludy, thanks for pointing out the clinicaltrials-gov unhide option for the version comparison, now I see that WHILE the stock price has been declining, they've been BUSY BEES. These are other locations that were added at about a rate of 2 hospitals/month since November, 2013:

    1. Apr 1, 2014 - Bergonie Hospital @ Bordeaux, France
    2. Mar 25, 2014 - Tampa General Hospital @ Tampa, FL
    3. Mar 25, 2014 - Hartford Hospital @ Hartford, CT
    4. Mar 13 2014 - Stony Brook University Hospital @ NY
    5. Feb 21, 2014 - Piedmont Atlanta Hospital @ Atlanta, GA
    6. Jan 30, 2014 - The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MA
    7. Jan 14, 2014 - Lehigh Valley Hospital-John and Dorothy Morgan Cancer Center @ Allentown, PA
    8. Nov 4, 2013 - Hackensack University Medical Center @ Hackensack, NJ

    Beautiful!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ACT IV trial ADDED one Site on April 1st

    by soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 11:35 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    Thanks. I had not seen the "Hide non-essential portions" option!. Using that option, now I see that one location was added in February and one in March too. I am going to post it a level higher than this conversation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ACT IV trial ADDED one Site on April 1st

    by soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 11:35 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Apr 2, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    How did you figure out which one was the new site?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There was an update on April 1st for the ACT-IV clinical trial (NCT01480479). In that update, the number of sites changed from 221 to 222. I do not know how common it is for studies to add or drop sites, and given the massive number of sites on this study (+200 - if you look through the list there are withdrawn, some are recruiting, and some are gearing up still)

    An addition of just one site isn't much % wise. However, if sites are being added to the list, it might mean that word of mouth is convincing other doctors at different sites that this is a program that would do well for their patients.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1135 and management

    by bninawhile Mar 29, 2014 11:53 AM
    soros_sr soros_sr Mar 30, 2014 11:12 AM Flag

    I think that CDX-1135 was what it was. A simple phase I trial that did not work for whatever the reason. I doubt Celldex management ever devoted too much time or too much effort as they have to their cancer immunotherapeutic trials. CDX-1135 was a high risk project that they were willing to try, but were real quick to stop when they saw that any resources put into that precise trial would result in a loss. So, in my mind, they did well, and they did what they had to do. The other programs ARE massive however, and Celldex is betting their company on them:

    1. Phase III Rindo on GBM is in 221 sites, try finding a trial with that many sites.
    2. Phase II Glemba on Breast cancer is in 40 sites (lots of sites for a phase ii).
    3. CDX-1127 in 8 sites.

    In contrast, CDX-1135 has only one site, and I doubt there was any plan for expansion. In fact, rather than try to expand to other sites, they just killed it.

    The massive number of sites that Celldex uses for their trials is interestingly larger than Avastin trials for example. My guess is that the reason is that Celldex doesn't have the brand recognition that Genentech/Roche or other big pharma have, and has to make up for it by spreading the trials a bit more in order to reach their desired trial numbers. This can work well for them if and when the trials prove successful because they already have a foot in the door as far as marketing. Being in more locations for trials also brings a logistic load that they so far have shown they can manage, which in my mind adds to their credibility.

    Having said that, the massiveness of their cancer programs and the excellent early clinical data tells me Celldex should be looking for opportunities to get early approval for their products whenever they can. Sort of having opportunistic milestones for their programs... I, and every serious investor in Celldex wait for real results and not more expansions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sorry to see CLDX down so much

    by eduardohernandez92 Mar 28, 2014 5:34 PM
    soros_sr soros_sr Mar 28, 2014 6:07 PM Flag

    I am actually accumulating more CLDX against the "don't grab a falling knife" advice. I am hopeful that FINALLY, Marucci will deliver A RESULT. They did do right in killing CDX-1135 quickly instead of letting it linger along .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CLDX
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