due to some unforeseen circumstances I need to realize cash quickly, and I'm forced to sell this position (unfortunately, at a small loss). I'm sure ANV will fly from here, if only because that's how my luck has been as of late, but good luck everyone!
The SEC proved themselves incapable of handling even the most trivial case of corruption. If we hit 100M shares short, for example, then the floodgates open and I genuinely wonder whether there'll ever be a recovery, even if gold jumps
The overwhelming majority of people believe TSLA is going to see 500. One day down does not indicate anything about general sentiment.
Share prices jumped 40 bucks on that announcement. He had to say something to keep people in TSLA. I don't think the 70% jump in the last 3 months will be justified by the earnings release
A massive miss is currently priced in (look at the 2013 performance compared to other gold and silver miners, gold and silver miner indices, and gold/silver itself). Anything that's not a massive miss will most likely result in large gains
The most likely possibility is that the headline numbers will "beat" but not by enough to justify the +70% move since last earnings.
These small moves are nothing compared to what will happen when the shorts finally concede defeat
"In the last 30 days, the company did not witness any estimate revision while the Zacks Consensus Estimate moved lower, suggesting trouble down the road." shorts still paying Zacks to bash ANV
I'd say it might have been a good thing if it happened in February 2014, but according to the rumor it was a year ago (spring 2013). Wonder why its coming to light now ...
If the market is pricing in a certain gold price, say $800/oz gold, and if the cost per ounce exceeds that market-implied estimate, then indeed the company would be going bankrupt. The "market implied bankruptcy rate" is thereby calculated as 1 - (current market cap) / (value of asset base as measured by comparables or by market rate). Unless you believed that management grossly over-estimated recovery rates and reserves, the deep discount reflects the lack of belief in the company.
I think it will be violent, catalyzed by some news announcement. Shorts will scramble to cover, only to find that few longs are selling at these levels ..