it's actually the same as my sentiment when we originally invested in HERO years back for about $3.2X, shorts screaming same thing and even saying the company was going BK because of the shutdown in GOM because of our dumb president! When everyone was trying to destroy HERO, we made over 100% riding the short buying and value that caught up with earnings, ie 7's sp.
This time look at the difference pointed out by SA, it's what we have been saying for months, but finally someone pointed out how strong HERO management is and how they beat everyone during the dark days and won, this time they are doing the same thing.
We have a superior management team and they have kicked everyone else in our space in the #$%$, look how the outperformed other companies in our space.
Read it, its the best article written on HERO in a long time because it points out what 80% of a companies success is, management! We all have a love/hate relationship with SA/MF others, but this guy nailed it.
The stock is underpriced and eventually wall street will jump on the jackups when they ink big contracts on the discovery rigs.
Job well done SA author!
They have Mikes on every board, I have him on ignore now and he still responds to every one of my post, I can't see it! But typical Yahoo boards, you can ignore them but they allow you to read them if you want, gezz Yahoo why do you think I put them on ignore.
Keep focused, be patient! The more it goes down, the more you make LT.
Drop cover, drop cover, its the flavor of the day!
This is the problem with low volume stocks, stocks drift lower when there are very few buyers to fill orders!
Here come the new names to pump the short position, Mike's cousins Vinny and Sal! The higher, the better!
A short attack on bad news would be around 28% of float, Since I've been back to buy value, on paper and 20 day old news in a technology market means nothing, I've made 4.6%+ profits- 3X times just on trades and my long position so far is above water. You see me crying?
Use the current agenda to your advantage, shorts have to buy shares, they are LT value buyers with the agenda to buy on weakness and average in LT shares at the lowest possible price per share!
Or if you want, buy shares every week for the next 52 weeks and better than a 89% chance you make over 18% on your investment.
It's almost like last super bowl, Seattle players tell the coach they aren't going to show up because the Denver Broncos are to tough for them and everyone says they are going to lose! How did that work out boys?
You know the score, now play the game or go somewhere else!
You knew the shorts were going to attack, they are trying to save their #$%$ just like the longs who own shares in the $6's, bad or greedy DD, no difference!
Put the idiots on ignore and focus!
also, nice to get back from a meeting and have another trading block executed at the 4.62, 2 more blocks and I'm loaded for the first week of April dividend payment!
View slide 18 from presentation, look at the increase in contract amount for rigs 261 and 262 contracted for the full year 2015, if both discovery rigs are contracted for end of 2014/full year 2015 then the hole is filled. That puts 2015 as a stellar year and investor's looking long will start buying value for 2015, not to mention no debt due till 2019.
It's all about two rigs and I believe management when they tell me they are holding out for a contract with high rates, its the type of iron everyone is looking for, so to hold out for solid contracts that could be for a period of up to 5 years, is the type of management we need.
Discovery rigs contracted and the ticker will light up like the 4th of July, I only mention this because of the longs who folded last time when the shorts put on the pressure, cowboy up and buy the fear, shorts are going to cover all gaps down!
As far as the capt mentioning downgrade, a hold with a $7+ price target is good news at this level, its a good call, they're telling you not to panic and the $7+ target is realistic...IMO!
Discover contracts, guaranteed 5.6X sp minimum that day, shorts start buying on the uptick, it's good to be a HERO!
it would be a good time to announce Discovery update, although no live connection or replay, good to check presentation material later today to see if there is any news not known from earnings report.
Bottom line, they are selling investor's on their business plan, no harm done, you can't sell it if you're not in front of people.
Management is doing their job...IMO!
Nice bounce this morning so far!
Yes, new report should be out after close! Reports are a good overall gauge for LT investing but its not accurate based on daily change. Shorts could cover 800K one day and another institution could short 900K the next day! Just like the daily buy and sell list on NASDAQ, short reporting is an old school number.
Number should still be high and that is good for value investor's!
Not here, betting on 50MA moving toward 200MA range, took a small dividend in FRO after it went back to my original long buy point on the day-trade, mainly cause I was bored(:-)!!!! Small % here and there adds up big over a year! I'm holding today's HERO trading shares and going with the 4 block theory for a Discover trade.
Not sure what the market does TMO, my goal is to keep the HERO dividends in the 4.60%+- range, at these sp levels. its hard to give away trading shares
to the few, the proud, HERO value buyers! Today was huge on a support level, China news spooked market, negative sentiment in oil spill and major sell-off on big profits from the ST trade at the mid $4's to $5 range. The technical support, etc proves the market is still healthy and believes LT economy is healthy.
For a HERO being slammed by the big short positions and every other Molotov cocktail mixed in, the support today could be a key reversal point in ST T/A, the 50MA was hit and the gap down filled up.
My point, besides the BS on this board daily, I have no reason to believe at this point this isn't a LT opportunity.
We might test the bottom one more time, but overall value still exist LT
Cheers till TMO!
with the downdraft as the bay stalls and "bunker" oil is cleaned up! 25th year anniversary of the Valdez! LT, probably a disruption in supply could increase demand ST! Only in American, lets close the channel but let the cruise ships in! Stopping the flow of oil for ships that burn a boatload of it, kinda ironic!!!
Global is probably blaming HERO..LOL!
the shorts are still covering, its becoming too predictable, now I'm worried!
Now a note to fire capt, based on your disclosure last week, you probably shouldn't talk about math or someone's else's lack of it when I point it out, the shorts will be done before you get back to breakeven.
Lets roll back up, its almost like shooting ducks in a pond, I love short coverings!
Hold the cheap shares long, keep trading the coverings and enjoy life, if someone long needs to understand the math its good LT, if not let me explain it, lord what were you boys thinking, please tell me you lied firecap, it OK to lie on this board, everyone else does but me!
OUCH, no offense, but I might have to drive it down to 4.2X, wait on your margin call and add your big block for cheap, then pump it back up!
You're lucky I have professional standards
First, blackgold is sitting in purgatory with mike, ignore is a must for yahoo boards. Has to be a pumper and dumper on every board, yahoo sucks!
More important, without bad news the bottom is now solid...IMO. Over the last 5 to 6 trading days HERO has outperformed all 3 indexes by 10%+ as shorts continue to buy! Doesn't mean blue skies yet, but remember what happened last time rig update was posted?
All in all, HERO is performing like a true value stocks and the fact its was up today after a big run up is good news ST, now the downdraft!
Here comes the standard market sell off on manufacturing/factory news, just another opportunity for a ST trade in HERO. Let the dust settle, traders are unloading for big ST profits, be patient!
Life is good!
No doubt, we are in agreement and why we both held shares long, the difference between management and leadership now is night and day! The negative and black hole has closed and the focus is off USMI.
In my world you have to mix in facts and I can assure you, this Qtr will be the biggest test in the last 6 years. Based on economic data, 1st Qtr, USMI results has to assume USMI number will be lower than last Qtr, if it is and the stock breaks out, that means for the 1st time in a 6 year span LT investor's are looking at the entire company instead a division. If that is the case, then we probably will break out and have new institutional support looking two years out with eyes on; improving balance sheet, 2015 dividend program, Ausi IPO and LTC rates approved.
If we can get to the point where USMI is down Qtr over Qtr and institutions understand the seasonality of USMI earnings, then we are in the same arena as the big insurers. SP increase also puts pressure on a larger insurer preparing to buy out Genworth before valuation are too high to justify the cost to buy.
Same to you RP, its time to go play, the bad thing about being the boss is catching up on weekends, but worth every penny(:-)
it sure seems like it!!!!! Strange board, will you agree with Zack's if you don't agree with me? No matter how bad the financials look, the street/others now see FRO as a survivor, so my point, things have changed. Investor's are starting to look as FRO as a deep value stock with less risk. Getting in on the ground floor might be something you consider.
Anyway, you seem to be one of the few not in left field!
Zack's could be a ST spark, you might want to look at it after earnings and see if they can change your mind!
Risk/reward is starting to look good...IMO!
Fun fact, The week after Triple Witching Friday ended with a weekly S&P 500 loss 14 out of 21 years (66%).
Usually, they are balanced after close, so you see all kind of weird pricing/share buy/sell AH action. You can't balance the transactions during open session. Either way, a big win and my best guess is what you saw is a huge win for call buyers in the 1st Qtr, they probably are shares going long on the call side!
A good move for Genworth either way and a win for us longs!
Now lets hope this is not the usual run-up to earnings like last time and then consolidation down, speculation is now high for Genworth and the street is pumping, all good news. Historical data coming up, last time when it hit the low $19's is when the stock reversed. But, I think the MI albatross is over and this time if the stock breaks out above that high it could run in a major way.
and they win, we win!
Now if my theory is correct about the shorts hedging the spread of buying shares up, then a 880K short buy back/cover before close and they can easily push it above $5!
If that was the agenda, great call!
A good week to be a value investor. A lesson to the greedy shorts. Old name oil patch name, iron working and GOM day-rates still high, best in breed new iron about to go to work, reducing and paying down debt and interest expense, cash flow positive, increasing revenue/EPS YOY out to 2016, sp still below BV and the best management team in the business!
Another tidbit for those who seek knowledge, if you want to know the tag team affiliate, It's Dimensional Fund Advisors LP! I've been following their agenda's since 1997, ask yourself why they would have so many shares in HERO above the average institutions, to loan shares?????? It's legal!
That is my speculation based on this agenda against HERO, no matter who wins, great week to prove what I always say....fear=opportunity!
OK, here you go, all your math is off, every number. Now if about 200 institutions own 73% and 200 buy 73% more then HERO needs to do a secondary and increase shares count! Mind if I call you Mike Jr.?
Either way friend, just keep pumping your day-trade and since you don't cost me a penny, throw out numbers and see what happens.
I had a few minutes to waste, so I had my fun. But since you're a long, welcome aboard and good luck!
My advice, those of you who loaded up with cheap trading blocks, take the ST profits,on a Long view, top of the 1st, bases loaded no outs!!!!!!!!!
The real math, two days of buyers on low volume with the bid-ask tight=institutional support and possible upgrade in the pipe on Discovery news!
Another good week to be a value buyer and believe in management!
They might pull this thing off, park it at 5.01 and take the shares.
with have the opposite of mike, from ZERO to $50!!!! Dude, just pump the stock and make things up like Mike, don't apply math to your agenda, it destroys your ZERO credibility! Keep up the enthusiasm!
Lets all cheer on the $5 boys, at this point they need a Hail Mary, or as we call it in the SEC now a Auburn Mary, they gave it 110%!