Value buyers start adding to position and the sp creeps up and the seller comes out unload and drop sp, this action is a st concern, the results are this, with shares unloaded so far this is intuitional shares, large investors pockets are not that deep. Same seller has unloaded millions of shares.
I'm beginning to think this swap was arranged by MM to keep panic from setting in with investors, it almost seems prearranged to me. If seller would of just dumped on open market, could of pushed sp down st to 14.40 ish.
I'm still trading elsewhere, hopefully GNW will get back to normal pattern after swap is over.
I now set a date on my hold position shares, June! If buyout is not announced by then, I'm taking the rest of my profits elsewhere for higher returns, I've grown tired of supporting Genworth, LT investor's are just not buying the story and are buying the bigger name insurers who pay a dividend.
Also, if Genworth announces at least a 2.8% dividend, I'll hold! My assumption is this, if Genworth announces a dividend, then buyer decided the price was to high! But a dividend will bring institutional support LT
BINGO! The problem with SDRL philosophy of money is cheap is a double edge sword! I've been involved with analysis in Oil/Gas sector since 1997, one thing I can assure you of is this, sometimes pauses come out of the closet and ADR go down. SDRL has put itself in a position that the company can't survive a 2 year downturn in market. As you say, low rates are fine until the FED raises them and the global economy stalls and oil/gas demand drops along with oil prices.
So SDRL management IMO rolled the dice, could work out or not, other drillers are prepared for a slow down and could weather storm.
I'm certainly not preaching doom and gloom, its just the risk companies take when they think growth is imminent.
The biggest problem for SDRL is the Global analyst, if he pulls a HERO and downgrades stock to Neutral after earnings, it could get ugly st...IMO
Be prepared, street chatter hints at big news about to come down pipe, be ready.
It might not be today, but set your alarms, the theory is this, if this good news hits the DOW wire, major short positions will have to cover to retain profits on cost average down.
Always be ready, worst case your day turns out with another small gain.
as far as the future sp is concerned, its old news, so any report in the future will have pockets of good news.
Global analyst used the report to cover his #$%$ and try to justify his downgrade on HERO
We are priced below BV, fleet status report is a non event...IMO
The bottom line, their was more revenue in report, that's all that matters!
I need a few more details than that, you talking overall market or Genworth? My speculation at this point is, the overall market(drop few weeks back) starting pricing in a bad January and then bounced back on overall LT view, now with February another storm drained month and lack of productivity, more downside might be coming in overall market. I think 1st Qtr GNP will be a disaster except in certain pockets.
If the market heads down and without buyer support in Genworth, you know my low number!
HERO starting to get some support and I'm hoping big news comes out soon on discovery rigs, chatter is crews are gearing up!
Let me try to help you, we will start with the basics...you said...
"I am long and way down HERO, but you are kidding yourself IF you think the shorts lost. The Naked short selling took the stock price down close to $3 a share, they did this after loading up on Putts"
The 52 week sp low is 4.38 cents, so where did you come up with $3? The naked short position did not have the shares available to short, ie "nakked"!
They shorted above current price sp today, so again, I think you are confused. Now the big event is this, who do you think is dumb enough to sell the shorts 6.8M shares for current sp?
I can only help you, if you give me something that works mathematically?
Want to start over with current data?
Two of my bashers have the yahoo names of low rent body parts and body excrements and they expect people to take them serious. They ruin every Yahoo board and are just 2 bit day traders who couldn't get a real job because of lack of education and they are probably felons!
Yawn, I thought adding 28 children to my ignore list took care of the white trash, two more make a rounded 30, and TMO they will create new ID's, thank you Yahoo!
Days like this make you miss Jim's, I'm going to sell calls to cover the other shares I covered and will sell the puts to cover the other cover before my covers fall off!!!!
Hey Joe where you going with that gun in your hand???
take away the short assault, and HERO earnings should of been supported by street!
The funny part, look at NBR earnings and how its trading above BV, but yet it rallies, HERO didn't!
When the HERO fuse sparks, we will be top story on CNBC!
Also, another note since I'm going to make Global's life miserable, Global downgraded the stock in Sept of 2012, look at the jump(50% 0f bottom) in NBR sp after their downgrade melted sp!
Yep, gee I wonder if they were shorting downgrade?...hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!
I got Global boys crying in HERO camp, yep, I can't change some people but you understand, why watch paint dry when you can make money with less risk somewhere else. Also, if you like, I added PKD shares at 6.97 based on my pull back to 6.80 range, just flipped them for 7.7% profit, holding my core long shares below $4. Also flipped my SFL shares on run-up, still own long shares below $15 and love that dividend!
If I would of bought GNW shares after earnings...NOTHING!
Like I said back in December, Oil and gas sector is the place to be in 2014 and you need high dividend stock in portfolio. 2014 is going to be a tough year, 1st Qtr GNP is going to be a disaster..IMO
Hard work and DD trumps wall street agenda's!
You finally have a point, walk towards the light Mike! So, Global going to downgrade SDRL? Bet their friends have been shorting since buy recommendation!
Jar, put some armor on friend! The "chatter" after housing/construction headlines today got the boys updating their models. I'm not going to post chatter news. I'm tired of posting facts. Longs only focus on one thing and its cost them a lot of money over the years, but I'm happy for them, if they believe its going to $30, let them, its their/was their money!
If January numbers were that bad, then February numbers will be a disaster also. So my fear might come true, only one questions remains, its a tough one, is MI now out of the spotlight? Lets say Qtr over Qtr USMI is down sequentially will the negative headline matter????...or is that why we are priced today 12% below current valuation based on facts from earnings guidance?
Best earnings since 2009 and sp is 12% below current valuation and volume is anemic.
As far as the 1.2TB of my historical data I have on Genworth since late 2008, this pattern has never formed, its almost like the perfect storm.
For me, I'm holding only because my LT share valuation is below $4.80 a share, so a hit to 12.80 doesn't even put a dent in my profits since I told everyone to take some off the table above $16.
Sometimes the truth hurts, but facts and the truth are all you will ever get from me friend.
By my calculations, seller(s) have unloaded, my best guess, about 11 million shares since earnings, why?
I think Genworth made a mistake by not announcing a dividend program in 2014! Throwing a bone sometimes is how you feed the hungry, no bone, they look elsewhere!
But hey, its going to $30 right?(:-)
"The valuation is now too cheap to ignore: This stock appears to be trading at bargain levels when you consider that book value is about $5.16 per share. Earnings estimates of 64 cents per share for 2014 and 78 cents per share for 2015 imply the stock is too cheap, with a price to earnings ratio of just about 7 times. A more reasonable PE ratio of at least 10 would support a share price of about $6.40 in 2014, and that would still be undervalued compared to many other stocks."
What Global and the analyst did to HERO should carry consequences, then maybe analyst would abide to professional ethics.
Speaking of Global, I think I have a way to embarrass them, read this...this is a statement from analyst yesterday on SeaMex deal..
"Seadrill, which is adding the most new offshore rigs in the industry, needs $6.5 billion over the next two years beyond its cash flow from operations to fund its fleet expansion and dividends, said Brian Uhlmer, an analyst at Global Hunter Securities LLC in Houston, who rates the shares a buy and owns none."
Yes you can laugh, but wait, he recommend a Buy on stock at $46 range and today its trading at $36 range, with above statement he still has a buy but he doesn't own shares.
Now who wants to bet he downgrades before or after earnings?
So, he had a buy on SDRL when they have to raise 6.5 billion just to pay for new rigs and is trading at 2X+ BV and downgrades HERO selling below BV, oh I forget, it was selling below asset value below 4.5X.
Lesson, lets build 7B in new rigs, even if HERO can't afford it and maybe we get a buy from Global?
First before anyone says it, I'm not short, don't own shares and never have. My simple reply was, I've always thought it was a bit pricey and their debt scares the hell out of me. But, I would buy at X price!
This sums it for me:
"Seadrill, which is adding the most new offshore rigs in the industry, needs $6.5 billion over the next two years beyond its cash flow from operations to fund its fleet expansion and dividends, said Brian Uhlmer, an analyst at Global Hunter Securities LLC in Houston, who rates the shares a buy and owns none"
Also, be aware of Global Hunter, research what they did to HERO, it was messy but I'm the proud LT owner of shares at the 4.52 till 2016+. The only reason I point this out, Global even broke SEC rules IMO with shorting activity. They put a buy on SDRL and its magically dropped $10+- in sp since they upped to buy and watch out for a downgrade before earnings, its something that needs to be considered in ones DD.
Now, there is also a old saying in the oil patch, if your iron is headed to Mexico you got nothing else, so big headline might not be as sweet as it seems. My point, what if they can get 220K a day 1 year down the road for each rig? They had no choice but to take the deal, and I understand why based on statement above. to me, that solid rate for 6 years on all those rigs does nothing more than pay down some of their debt.
To the few who said they would rather pay a little more after earnings to see facts, I agree with you!
I'm only giving my view based on my DD, not designed to #$%$ anyone off, I only took the time to do a little DD because of all the chatter on this board over SDRL, I took SFL and dollar for dollar, I'm winning today.
I hope I'm wrong ,good luck to you guys!
while he was giving us his short report everyday, imaginary, but he delivered with enthusiasm, so lets update that. He throws out 8 cents, but math is not his strong point. We even gave him the bottom!
So lets update the shorts brilliant strategy that backfired right up their rear end.
Bottom line, since the middle of the downside, those who bought long are up 4.5%+ and the shorts are covering and paying more per share everyday.
Now for those of you true longs, we overloaded to help the common investor st/lt, don't forget its still cheap up to 5.6X sp,
But be patient and trade for some profits outside your core position, there will be more down days, but overall you are in the money now.
Looking for thumbs up Sam?, you will get a bunch! That has been one of my issues, GNW should be trading at a higher sp than RDN cause its not a pure play MI. Agree on the CEO, I was bragging about him before you showed up..
I'm just trying to figure out why someone is holding the stock price down and why when all is right, its still trading 50% below BV?
BTW...I'm long, I just like to make better decision on when to buy and when to sell, it really works!
OK everybody scream with me...WHAT A GREAT CEO!!!!!
Good luck friend!
"U.S. homebuilders' confidence in the housing market declined sharply this month as the severe weather battering much of the nation keeps many would-be buyers at home.
Storms and cold weather dampened builders' outlook for sales ahead of the spring home-selling season and could further slow the pace of home construction.
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index released Tuesday slid to 46. That's down from January's reading of 56 and is the lowest level since May."
I predicted MI earnings could be down this Qtr, sometimes mother nature can be stubborn! What I'm trying to help my friends with is this, lets say USMI profit is down 32% Qtr over Qtr?
Is that why buyers are being patient since 52 week high is 16.6X?
Does MI still #$%$ LT investor's in GNW?
Will overall 1Qtr earnings #$%$ Wall Street into a bear trap?
Like it or not, weather has devastated economic growth in Jan/Feb!
I know my friends waiting on $30 would love another buying opportunity to add cheaper shares!
Paying attention to data is called DD, don't blame the messenger!
Yep, its strange! But until I know the seller is happy, I'm making money where the action is!
I just sent a HERO short home crying, still buying and trading LT.
To me its simple for income, I made 1.8% more trading HERO than I could of with GNW this morning,with less risk also. On the long side, HERO risk factor is almost 0% below 4.4X line! But if they have a surprise, we're still only 50% with long shares until we know for sure Shorts have no more bullets. I take it personal when a Analyst breaks SEC rules and hurts good companies, I want stop until I destroy them, got that tenacity from my granny, or so my mom said!(:-)
If HERO announces news on discovery rigs, we have the troops ready to buy and squeeze!
Wall street, more fun than the magic kingdom!