Enjoy the ride. Volume is so sweet right now, nothing can take this down for a few days at least, RNN all over again for me. YEAH BABY !!!
IF I am wrong, please share your wisdom with us. I would like to hear from long newbies who claim to understand the biotech market. I have made my millions trading to morons like you. Keep holding and Keep CRYING !!
All those who are dreaming of buy-out, partnerships etc really need to understand the reality of the drug. A barely significant 2-week efficacy, without any long-term safety data and a potential market cap of near $300 million really translates into NO BUYERS. Big Pharma already has duds in their pipeline and they don't need more. You still have time to get out with some profit, if any but if you wait for the CC then u will be staring at the low 4s. And if you think pps can't go below pre-approval values then THINK AGAIN and do some research.
Well if you are planning to hold for a very long time then that's a different story. In the next few days, without buyout, this will settle in the 4s or low 5s. And its already trending there.
so over a 3 year period you made a 30% return on your investment. That's amazing. Don't spend it all in one place. Live a little. What's the next stock you are planning to hold for 3 years? Maybe I will get in on the action.
sell first thing tomorrow morning, otherwise you will regret it for a long time to come. If you don't believe me then check out the price action on DSCO, BPAX and other one drug companies with little capital and small market potential. In fact, DSCO went from $3 to near $6 for a few minutes in the morning and it ended the day below $3. If you are stupid enough to hold this long term in the hopes of a buyout you can still sell in the morning and buy back after a few weeks when this is at $4 or so. If they do a secondary, then you are really toast. Read my previous posts all my predictions about CHTP have been on the money, including the pre Adcomm drop and positive Adcom vote. I am just trying to share my experience with anybody who would care to listen. You took the great risk and held on to your shares through the decision. Now, why not take the profits and move on to something else. CHTP will be trading in the low 3s. And forget about buyout, Big pharma is much smarter then you think. Nobody wants a drug that barely works for a few weeks and has a max market potential of near 300 million. That's chum change for big pharma. WAKE UP !!
Stop loss won't work if it opens at 1 on negative news LOL !! and if it is positive then you won't need a stop loss, at least not at 4.90
Well, don't get me wrong the chances of approval are very high, but if FDA goes negative this one will crash big with no chance of recovery for a very long time. That's all. If you are ok with the risk then you are good.
In all honesty, the risk/reward ratio here is not very favorable, especially if you are betting big or going all-in on this investment. The upside is max 7.50 to 8 for a few minutes and then back to 5 or lower in the days to follow. Before you rush to judgement and call me a basher, read my previous posts where I had warned everybody of the drop at the time the briefing docs were out. Those who listened to me saved money and made it big when Adcom was positive, as I and many others had predicted.
I am talking mainly to those who have a tendency to bet big on a "sure" thing be prepared to lose big too. The downside here is loss of nearly 80 to 85% of your investment.
The best way to play this is to wait for approval and then short the peak or do a option spread right now. Don't get seduced by those who are predicting 10 or 12 and above. that's never going to happen because CHTP is a one trick pony with a max market potential of 300 million.
In short, if this goes south tomorrow you have been warned.
Another important thing, FDA has probably already informed CHTP and if they don't announce it in the morning or afternoon then the chances of approval will be VERY BLEAK. Take it from somebody who has been around the block many many times. GLTA
gale may have many reasons to go up in the long term, but tomorrow it will go down because of the negative market sentiment created by the article. And this will happen even though seeking alpha articles are worth nothing. the herd mentality will take this down at least for the first hour after the market opens.
I just sold some $6 puts for $1, thinking that in the worst case scenario I would be buying Gale for $5 a share and best case scenario I would get to keep the premium. It seemed to have strong support at $4.80-$4.90, but now it seems like my best laid plans will be gone to waste. I hope I can buy back the puts cheaply on Monday and keep my losses to a minimum.
I sincerely thought the seeking alpha crooks would stay away from this one because its already been beaten down quite a bit. But I guess I was wrong. They probably want to take this to the 3s.
The only ray of hope I see is that this article was released for general consumption after hrs on Friday and hopefully, people would have had more time to digest the news and a make a educated decision. Having said that I am bailing out first thing in the morning. Gale has true potential, but I am swing trader feeding my kids from trading profits, so I don't have the stamina to hold long-term.
MY FRIEND its a BUYOUT rumor, that's a whole new ball game. SHORTS have to cover, in buyout situations !!
IF you can buy it under 10 in the morning, I would say it would be worth every PENNY
You can bet this will touch $12 within the first half hour of trading without a doubt. Regardless, if the rumor is true or not. And it will stay up for a day or two while the market awaits confirmation. The shorts will be fighting each other to close their position YOU CAN BET ON IT. Enjoy the ride LONGS GLTA
I had sold 100 $3 puts and 200 $4 puts. I don't need to close those puts because they will expire worthless on Friday. Profit of little over $50k. Not bad. Last few months have been very good. Riding ARIA from 4.10 to 7.20 then RNN from 0.50 to 1.33. Looking for the next winner, now !!!
check old price action in ARNA to see how stocks behave in these situations. Remember FDA is very fickle and I wouldn't hold thru PDUFA. Just my 2 cents and 10 years of experience in biotech.
Enjoy your casino winnings longs. I know I will. GLTAL. Don't be greedy. Get out with your winnings. Don't hold too long. The drug has limited market. I am going to sell as soon as market opens.