dendritic vaccines don't work, that's the real truth. After that point it doesn't matter if the CEO is from MIT or not. According to your logic, if somebody from MIT asks u to eat #$%$, you should because he is from MIT. LOOOOOL
At it's current price its closer to its all time low than the all time high, wouldn't you agree or do you need to go back to 3rd grade.
1. If you had a disease that can kill you in 3 months, would you hesitate to take a drug that can extend your life for a year or more? And would you then be concerned about potential CV risks which can be monitored?
2. Do you think EU would give Iclusig prompt attention on their agenda if the drug had no or very little benefits?It takes months or years to get on their agenda but they have made Iclusig a priority? WHY?
3. Now what if the company had 2 such life extending drugs?
4. Given the data presented at ASH, why on earth would FDA turn a blind eye to Iclusig?
If you, after HONESTLY, answering these questions and knowing that ARIAD is trading at near its all time lows, think that you should short this stock then you my friend have won a free pass to the mental asylum.
And, even if you think of selling this anywhere below $30, u have not gauged the true potential of this company and its management. GLTA
It also depends on how long you are planning to hold the stock. If you are planning to hold at least 1 or 2 years, I would not really worry about 10 or 15 cent shifts. Its really doesn't make any difference in the long run. Because in two years this stock will be at at least $25 so it doesn't matter whether you buy at $4.20 or $3.80. Swing traders are bothered by 15 to 20 cent swings on long investors.
No one really knows how the stock is going to behave during the "NO NEWS" days. Obviously, if FDA re-approves with black-box warning then this will sky rocket at least into the 8s.
Here's what I usually do when I am buying into a company. I divide the money I want to invest into 4 or 5 parts and buy one part right away and the rest if the stock goes down another 30 or 40 cents. I do the same if I see a strong move upwards. It just depends on what the trend is at the time I am buying. Right now the trend seems to be down. If you already own a lot of shares then I would wait until it goes to 3.50 or less (if at all it gets there). If you have very few shares and the new monies a much larger portion then I would again buy some right now and buy more if it goes lower. Hope that helps !!
Those who have been in biotech investing long enough probably remember the runs that DNDN, JAZZ and others had. You always wish you had gotten in at the bottom of those runs. Well, you wish has come true. Opportunity is staring you in your FACE, the question is what are you going to do? I think this is poised to sky rocket, the only question is will you be IN THAT ROCKET. GLTAL
I think it would help everybody if we start a thread highlighting the key study findings that we currently have on Iclusig. The goal is to cut through the rhetoric and answer three key questions:
1. What data (efficacy and adverse event) does ARIAD currently have to support bringing Iclusig back on the market now with a label warnings?
2. What are the data gaps and what will the FDA require to "RE-APPROVE" Iclusig?
3. Finally, if current evidence is insufficient, what additional trials need to be conducted before we have conclusive data to bring Iclusigg back on the market?
If some results have been posted elsewhere on this thread it would be good to re-post them here. This will help provide some firm understanding of the data to current and new investors and will go a long way in allaying the fears of many investors who panic every time the stock goes down 5 cents.
I will add my findings soon but if others already have some info to post please add to this thread.
Thanks in advance for all your help and support. Let's do out bit while we wait for ARIAD to re-energize. God Bless and GLTA
Among some of the key small time biotech's trading under $5, ARIA is the safest bet.
1. GALE may have potential but its still risky because nobody knows the what the data is going to be.
2.CHTP is at the mercy of FDA.
3. IMUC will be worth pennies soon.
4.AMRN will go down 50% once FDA officially rejects ANCHOR indication on Dec 20th
5. KERX, which was trading under $5 a few months ago, has already peaked and its only downhill from here for it
6. NAVB, although it has a good product, will never sell enough to be profitable
That leaves ARIA, which was trading in the 20s just a few months ago. It has the best in class drug which FDA will eventually allow with a warning label. Has a good pipeline with couple of good candidates.
I will keep adding 50K for every 50 cent drop, and will only sell each share at $20. GLTAL
If you are swing trader never try to catch a falling knife. You should sell and limit your losses and buy back in after it bottoms out in the mid 2s. This will most likely go below $3 before it turns around because there are a ton of morons here thinking that FDA is going to decide on Monday or Tuesday. None of that is going to happen any time soon. So they will be disappointed and sell. That's when you can re-buy. You will need to hold it at least for 6 months if you want to see $12. Now that you know what's going to happen, hopefully you can sell and save some of your money.
Not sure what your problem is. All I am saying is that this is a good risk to take at this time. And to answer you other question, I did not own ARIA when it was at $20+, I bought it after it crashed to the low 2s. I only trade in good companies that are temporarily distressed or gems with huge potential to grow. In my last 7 years of trading I have NEVER EVER BOUGHT A SINGLE SHARE in a company that was trading about $7. I like to take on good risks and when I do I bet big. U are shocked that I own 70K shares of ARIA, then I better not tell you how much I own of GALE, CHTP, IMUC, and MACK.
1. The drug works, in fact works very well !!
2. Even aspirin has side effects; if you don't believe me try and pop a few (4-5) at the same time.
3. Sarissa is in !! and hope you know what that means
4. FDA will allow use of the drug, they have no other choice.
5. Medical community in up in arms about it !!
6. All ASH presentations are positive, I know because I am THERE RIGHT NOW !!
The biggest problem are the weak shareholders. Their definition of long-term is 3 to 5 days. They get easily swayed by message board bashers and pumpers. They try to jump in when its going up and panic sell when it going down. Their source of DD is Yahoo Message Boards. They don't have the conviction and faith in their DD. They buy on margin hoping for a quick buck.
Just as in poker REAL MONEY is made by those who are patient and strong-willed. The REST are just FISHES that will eventually get eaten up by the SHARKS !! GB and GLTA !!!
If that doesn't mean anything to you then you should not be investing in BIOTECH. Soon they will have a seat on the board and within a year or so they will resurrect ARIAD and sell to the highest bidder. My target is a minimum of $12-15 by end of next year. I have 70K bought in the low 3s. And WILL NOT SELL A SINGLE SHARE UNTIL ATLEAST $12. If this goes under $3, I will sell my GALE and CHTP holdings to buy more.
Regardless of news on Monday, those who have the stomach to hold long term (7-8 months) will win big
This is typical hedge fund shenanigans, they take the stock down with rumors when they need to load up cheap in preparation for impending news. Initially I was not sure if there would be any news from the FDA, because FDA could care less that ASH is going on. However, the fact that HFs have taken this down so hard the past few days is quite telling. Given the price action, I am pretty sure there is going to be something positive in the horizon next week. GLTA
This is a small note to all those morons posting here asking about revenues, profit and loss and complaining about the fact that this company has been losing money for many years and that ARIA has no potential to make a profit in the near future.
First off, this is small time BIOTECH investing, this is not a Pfizer, or a APPLE or Microsoft. Real Profits have no place in biotech, however, the perception and potential for profits is everything. If this company was making a quarterly profit of 15 to 20% or more this would be trading at $100 or more and not at $4.84. Just the fact that you guys are asking such stupid questions clearly tells me that biotech investing is not for you. Biotech investing requires BALLS which you apparently have lost the moment you asked the question about profits. GLTA
Remember !! On a one way street you can turn left or right or keep going straight but there is no option to turnaround. In Oct, FDA's immediate reaction was to suspend the trials and sales and marketing of iclusig. However, now that they had time to contemplate, discuss and look at the data, the FDA will, in the least, allow this for use in the very needy. In other words, any positive number, however small, that you add to zero will result in… you guessed it : A POSITIVE NUMBER. Now do I have to spell it out for you on how this will impact the PPS.GLTA
is the rejection baked in? Just curious, because if its the latter then not much to lose playing the FDA decision. Thanks for sharing ur thoughts.
Although biotech investing is risky if you hedge your bets correctly you can make a killing. ARIA is perfectly poised for major gains because EVEN IF FDA ALLOWS the use of ICLUSIG in a very restricted population, it opens the doors to major revenues which were nonexistent a month ago. $7 will be a new base come MONDAY morning. Grow a pair of balls and hold for a few weeks or months and you will be rewarded handsomely. GLTA