Tomorrow WYNN needs to drop to 154 and change to make the most profit for option writers, as options on WYNN expire at Friday's close. We'll see if they can manipulate a close just under 155.
The casinos are up today. CNBC had a report that attributed todays rise to increased air traffic into Vegas. They failed to mention that WYNN gets most of its revenue and profit from China.
Rarely have two great debaters on WYNN done such a good job as they have today. I have read both detailed views on WYNN as they have presented today, Both gave salient points. I give the winning essay to pcontinopc for the following reason. I believe pcontinopc's view that WYNN has too much debt and that the Vegas operations are just break even to be the most compelling arguments, I believe that a company paying out 90% of their earnings in dividends while funding two major projects is in jeopardy. Therefore, I believe pc's more pessimistic view is correct.
LGF stock seems to go up only when there is some kind of external news. Making a deal with X, sharing something with Y, rumors of a buyout with Z. These all seem to be short term things, with only a small amount of substance. If there was an internal matter pushing the stock up, that would be worth talking about. But looking back over the last year, what gets this stock moving north is usually barely better than smoke and mirrors.
The major point I took away from the article is that WYNN is borrowing the money for the dividend instead of getting the money from its cash flow. With heavy debt and a new project in both Asia and the U.S. needed to be funded, the generous dividend may be in jeopardy going forward.
Macau officials today indicated that by 2016 smoking will be banned in all Macau casinos, including VIP rooms. More bad news out of Macau, although everyone knew that this was coming sooner or later.
Does it seem to you that WYNN goes up on low volume, but goes down on heavier volume, or am I reading too much into the volume of WYNN?
WYNN is expected to earn 6.68 per share this year. That number will drop as the year unfolds. Earnings estimates in January are optimistic. Look what happened in 2014. The dividend is 6.00 per share. The company is trying to build a new casino in Asia, and another one in New England. These projects may very well be the opposite of earnings projections. They often cost more than expected. As seen in the fourth quarter numbers, Asia and Vegas are not doing well at the present time, First quarter numbers will not be very good. How long can WYNN pay out virtually all its earnings in dividends and fund two major projects at a time of decreased revenues and earnings?
A few months ago, consensus earnings for the current quarter were for 2.10 per share. Now they are for 1.60 per share. If WYNN's earnings miss the 1.60 level the way they missed last quarters consensus earnings level, watch out below. The talk is things may improve in Macau in the last half of this year. I don't see anything anywhere to believe that anything good will come out of the current quarter however. Macau and Vegas will disappoint, and Everett MA is still up in the air.
$138.11 was Wynn's January low. The stock is trading currently ten dollars above January's low, in spite of poor earnings being reported yesterday, with guidance appearing neutral at best. The dividend sustainability talk in yesterdays conference call also was not very encouraging. Look for a retest of January's lows.
Steve Wynn on yesterdays conference call re: dividend safety. "Our structure now does not threaten our dividend in the near future". Great usage of the English language to say we're not sure if it's sustainable looking forward, as we have a lot of debt and a couple of huge projects in the works that have to be funded.
blackhawk: thanks for your update to the Barrons article. I was unaware that the author had said in April that Macau had room to run much higher.
In this weekends Barrons, an article caught my attention. In addition to previously mentioned items like a coming smoking ban, the thing that really caught my attention was this. The article said Beijing will grant casino operators 40 to 50 per cent fewer new tables than the operators were hoping for. Beijing is apparently trying to deemphasize gambling and trying to increase shows restaurants shopping and conferences. In China, the governments hand is more powerful than it is in say Las Vegas. This may be another obstacle in Wynns path.
The Nevada Gaming Commission said today that revenues were down 16 percent in December from December 2013 figures. Vegas numbers poor. Macau high roller numbers probably even worse. Problems with getting the Everett MA casino approved. WYNN may throw in the kitchen sink on quarter four so next years (2015) earnings may look better.
avb911t: you do realize that Boston doesn't want WYNN don't you. Since the casino won't be IN Boston, Boston doesn't want it built (in nearby Everett). Another WYNN headache.
yourbest: after LVS's comments on the upscale bettors in Macau, I'm concerned. WYNN is the upscale Macau market. I think problems are imminent re: 4th quarter earnings.
avb911t: The way Boston has been handled, the best outcome is a delay and added expenses. Last year, WYNN had announced 4th quarter results in January. January ends this weekend and WYNN hasn't even announced an earnings date, although some platforms had yesterday as the date. Something's up. This, after all, was a 133 dollar stock a month or so back. It's rise since then puzzles me. It all rests on upscale Macau bettors, who seem to be fewer in number this year.
avb911t: What's your take on how low WYNN stock could retreat assuming their quarter won't look anything as good as LVS's. I can't even get an earnings date from their website. Sources had said earnings would come out yesterday. Thanks in advance.
In discussing earnings, LVS made a point of mentioning that their upscale Macau operations weren't what they were hoping for. LVS has a larger percentage of less upscale customers in Macau. WYNN has a larger percentage of upscale customers in Macau. This may become apparent when WYNN releases its earnings. It appears that in the fourth quarter in Macau, upscale was not the place to be.