Daniel Jones just penned an article about Lionsgate. The main point is that the current quarter is going to be so bad, with Exp 3 and Step Up doing so poorly at the box office, that a write down is now a possibility.
outlaw: You may very well be correct. I believe the whole stock market has gotten ahead of itself and is due for a correction. If it does correct between now and the next six weeks or so, I believe it will take most stocks down with it, LGF too. Hence I believe investors will get a better entry price in LGF than today.
outlaw: I believe I am looking forward. I did not sell on the last pop. Stocks fluctuate. The recent run up in LGF stock seems to me to be overdone. If it retreats to the high twenties, I believe it will be a better investment than at 33. Hey, I may be wrong about this. And if I am, I'll stay with my current position. If I'm right, I'll buy more. If I'm right, maybe you'll buy more too.
LGF's Exp's 3 opened this weekend at 16 million, nine million below estimates and down nearly 50% from Exp's 2 opening weekend. The PE on LGF's stock is 31. The company made 1.04 per share in earnings in fiscal 2014. Before this weekend, LGF was estimated to make .18 per share in this quarter. That's not going to happen with Exp's 3 performance. Exp 3 cost 100 million. I believe that LGF's stock has gotten too expensive with two of its movies released this quarter doing much more poorly than expected. A pullback in the price of the stock is warranted and will give investors a better entry point than the current inflated price.
On the day LGF's EXP 3 is released, the Wall Street Journal released an article highlighting Lionsgate as well as MGM holdings. My take was that LGF stock may have run up too much in price for their upcoming stream of films. WSJ stated that over the last two and a half years, LGF stock is up 294%. The gist of the article implied that for a company" with two 'Hunger Game' movies on the way but no other clear prospects for a similar blockbuster franchise", a 294% rise in the price of the stock might be a little excessive.
Typical upgrade by analysts. Wait for the stock to rise 25% in three months and then issue a buy rating. Or in the case of SeaWorld yesterday, after the stock tanks 30% in a day, change your buy rating to neutral. And to think someone pays these guys for their ratings.
Up until this pirating fiasco, the news was about lawyers filing class action suits against LGF. Now LGF gets to sue various persons. Not the best of times for LGF.
retiredarmyjoe: the "immediate and severe consequences" statement was made referring to LGF, not the sites that were pirating EXP 3.
First, "Step Up All In" premiered with the lowest opening for the dance off series, at 6.6 million. Then there's EXP 3's problems. The estimate for EXP 3's upcoming opening weekend is 25 million, lowest for the franchise. Reviews for the film have been mediocre, and the film cost 100 million to make and to publicize. To make matters worse, Robert Wenokur, LGF's top anti piracy executive, stated the piracy of EXP 3 would have "immediate and severe consequences". If nothing of a more positive nature ensues over the next week, look for LGF's stock to retrench after its recent run up over the last month.
LGF's top antipiracy executive Robert Wenokur issued a statement that the leak of Expen's 3 would have "immediate and severe adverse consequence" to LGF. Previous leaks of this kind resulted in a 19 per cent drop in box office revenues, other sources said. Guess a write down of some sort for the current quarter is not out of the question.
The ten day period last quarter leading up to earnings showed LGF stock rising more than three dollars per share, and losing that and more the day after earnings were announced. So far this quarter, with earnings to be announced in three days, the stock has been almost flat so far in this ten day period before earnings. There is a rather wide set of analyst expectations for earnings this quarter. Perhaps that is the reason why the volume has been low also.
re: Expendables 3. What did you mean when you said "it had quite a fall off from 1 to 2 domestically"? It isn't yet released.