One of the reasons I've done so very few trades on GURE for the past year or two is it just doesn't act like most stocks. I have other stocks where technicals are highly accurate in signaling moves (heck I have one I've been trading the last year which so mirrors textbook signals I have to keep reminding myself not to get too greedy). But GURE often makes big moves when the charts indicate consolidation should be starting. And when it gets extremely overbought or oversold you would normally expect a partial snap back in the opposite direction. But with GURE it just seems the volume dies and the pps hardly moves. From a technical trading point, this is a tough one to play. I think Tradelogic is right on point about the manipulators (both long and short as well as the mo-mo traders). The only consistent, actionable signals I see in GURE is when big blocks of options move, and that only happens a few times a year. If anyone has found any other worthwhile patterns or signals, please share
makemoney, the overwhelming majority on this board couldn't read a chart to save their life. You can lead a horse to water.......
At any rate, agree the short term technicals still haven't turned, although they are getting close. I still have a trading order in for $3.38 from 2 weeks ago; might get it filled Monday. I still have my core position, but also have a bunch of cash patiently waiting on the sidelines for when it does turn.
hjeffer, I thought you were holding out for $3.44? I'm still sticking with my Nov 22nd prediction of testing $3.38 this week. So far this year, this stock has been a technical traders dream.
Fundamental, yes that is one aspect of the fast stoch, but more importantly it can be used as. an indicator of overbought or oversold. The fast stoch is not always the best metric for all stocks. But for GLUU it is a near perfect indicator over the last year or so. In the last year we have hit 80 a total of nine times (including Friday). In 8 of those 9 times, GLUU corrected an average of just over 10% (low of 3%; high of 30%) within days of crossing the 80% mark. In the remaining case, it hovered around for almost a month with a very narrow trading range (about 2%) before correcting about 12%. It may very well run another 2%-3%, especially on the SA article, but I am pretty confident, absent any significant news, I will get a better entry point for trading shares in the next couple weeks. I won't sell any core shares unless the fast stoch gets above 85 or it breaks the upper BB. For the long-term holder, I wouldn't sell anything as the long-term indicators are all strongly positive.
Just curious why $3.44? I don't see any conventional metric I use pointing at that. Too early to tell until I see BB narrow and a reversal of the fast stoch. The late afternoon strength kind of surprised me; it may have another 10 cents in the old girl before it consolidates. If I HAD to make a guess at this point, I would look for consolidation in the mid to upper $3.40s, with at least one test down to the 38.2 Fib retrace ($3.38) which if it holds would be my trading shares re-entry point for the next leg up. But too early to tell. Who knows, it may keep running which would still make me very happy.
hjeffer, yes, seems like anything less than 100% positive is met with thumbs down on this board. When I take a position in a company, I almost always take another 1/3 position to trade in and out based on what the chart technicals are showing. No effect on the core holding, but it only takes a couple successful swing trades to make a modest return a great return.
Overall uptrend still intact, but time to take some profits on your trading shares. I punched out at $3.67 with 1/3 position; still holding core. Look to get my trading shares back in a few weeks when the fast stoch bottoms out on a dip.
Thanks for the explanation on the conversion; I figured I was missing something because that is such an odd lot number. But what am I missing on the 600,000 share deal? His form 4 on May 30th showed he had 600,000 shares. his form 4 on Aug 22nd showed he had 0 shares. If he didn't sell the 600,000 shares, what happened to them? According to the Aug form 4, he only sold 14,000 shares.
T12 (Request for information). No idea what the exchange if looking for, but if the past is any indicator it means the exchange has previously asked for information and it is either not satisfied with the response or has been ignored. Given the current political environment, if it isn't trading again in the next day or two, it is probably toast and on it's way to pinkie land.
I didn't mean to imply those not on the list are targeted, merely to say if a large group is targeted the whole sector typically gets beat up.
no dispute there. But did you see the enforcement actions in the last week shutting down some of these auditors? The chatter I am hearing is the remaining 20 something companies still listed (of the original 50 or so) under review with shaky auditors are the next targets of the shorts. That means a whole lot of volatility for all china small RTOs whether on the list or not.
Tradelogic, you are dead on. But the operative word here is "retail". The entire China small sector (especially RTOs) is being manipulated at will right now by non-retail level, non-public groups as they roll from one company to the next. As soon as one pops significantly up or down on no news, I've been taking scalp positions in the other direction. But this is coming to an end real soon. The pending SEC actions, the PCAOB releasing enforcement actions putting auditors like Sherb out of business, and the extreme volatility means the game is near the end. A series of short attacks is the next logical step. Watch for ANY RTO with above average volume of calls sold below fair value or with negative premium. The last few months has been a traders dream.
Since the company was kind enough to post the 10K on a Friday and have the whole weekend to read it prior to the conference call, I'll toss this to any of you who will be on the call.
Once again GURE borrowed money from another one of Ming Yang’s companies (Jiaxing Lighting) this quarter in the amount of $245,000 and repaid it in the same quarter. So far this year the company has borrowed a total of $665,449 from Mr Yang. Since the 10K states there is $97 million in demand deposits at local banks, why the need to continually borrow these relatively small amounts?
The interest earned indicates the entire $97 million is in demand deposits. This amount far exceeds any possible daily needs for liquidity, so why not place some of these deposits into laddered 7, 30 and 90 day or perhaps even 6 month deposits. This would generate several million dollars per year in interest.
I would be very surprised if we didn't test somewhere around $3.03 between now and next Friday this time. That will be the real test (whether it holds or not).
$3.31 when I wrote this and now first bounce off the fib retrace and 50 EMA. Still, no one is starting to cover the calls. Probably try and take out $3.02 at least once or twice more today. If that happens decisively, only one stop ($2.82) before a major option pinning action at $2.50. I would look to be a strong buyer next Friday at options expiration.
There is enough open interest in the $2.50 Nov Calls to become an influence if volume is light the rest of this week. It just might prove too tempting for someone who sold large blocks of calls. Target would probably be down to the $3.02 Fib retrace where the 50 EMA crosses.
I trimmed down on the common considerably today as well. The last few CC has made me gun shy. The only difference with this Q is going to be how people react to the comps. With the inflated top line after the COGS restatement last Q, the casual observer might conclude there is much greater YoY growth than there really is. Well, I still have 60 Dec $2.50 calls left if something big comes out of the CC
Recap: common explodes and just after the top, someone writes 2,000 calls at no premium (when the volatility suggests a huge premium is warranted) and then the common gives back 20% in the next two days where the calls expire worthless. Seen that movie before.